Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Oh dear.
Yonks ago, I posted info to Ms Garrett’s forum, re wild birds and h5n1, but seems that she’s yet to grasp the issue, instead remaining a stalwart believer in the Tooth Fairy Bird.I note this after seeing she’s lately had this appear on Promed:
Quote:As the number of reported H5N1 outbreaks in Asia mounts, I am trying to
reckon trends for this spring. Given the profound El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) effect this year [2007] on Europe and North America, I
am wondering what is known about aquatic Asian bird migrations and ENSO. A
cursory database check finds confusion. Warmer temperatures seem to
decrease some European migrations. But the increased rainfall induced by
ENSO in the Pacific seems to increase bird breeding and migration as a
result of increased tree budding, nut formation, and insect populations.Does anybody have a clear sense of how periodic global climate oscillations
effect the migratory patterns of aquatic bird species? For example, are
birds that frequent the Asia flyways to Siberia more or less likely to jump
the Bering to Alaska? Are birds in the Atlantic flyway more or less likely
to migrate from Greenland to northern Canada?—
Laurie Garrett
Senior Fellow for Global Health
Council on Foreign Relations
NY, NY 10021I have emailed Laurie Garrett with some info:
Hi Laurie:
I think you’ll find the Tooth Fairy Bird is very variable in its migration paths.
Doesn’t really fluctuate with climate; instead, it migrates to and from places where H5N1 is found, and officials are unwilling to admit real causes.
As concerns real birds: well, first let’s see if any actual species has been shown capable of surviving and sustaining and spreading H5N1.
… how are you doing on answering this one?
….
err, thought so.
So, you are indeed interested in movements of the Tooth Fairy Bird.
Good luck.Best regards,
Dr Martin WilliamsAfter news re Japanese White-eye and House Crow found dead, and with H5, in Kowloon, posted this to group re H5N1 and wild birds:
Yes, fitting pattern of last year I’m afraid. Both the white-eye and the house crow in urban Kowloon; house crow now a common resident in some parts of Kowloon (yet I’ve never seen one in HK! – rarely to the estates etc of Kln).
Last night, reporter at S China Morning Post emailed me shot of dead Red-whiskered Bulbul, requesting identification.
Today, on radio, heard mention re White-rumped Munia also found in Kowloon – Boundary Street. Near Mong Kok Bird Market, which being disinfected/checked, and where, reportedly, sales have halved in last few days (oh dear, how I sob…).Haven’t seen re whether birds being checked for possibility of captive origin.
This email has been circulated in HK by an ecology prof:
Quote:Dear All,I am talking to the Centre for Health Protection’s Scientific
Committee on Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases next Wednesday about
religious bird release. My main message will be that the half-million
or more birds imported and released every year are the most likely
origin of the urban H5N1 outbreaks in January-March 2006 and in 2007.
The species involved are either ones released in large numbers or
species that would predate or scavenge dead or dying birds. If anyone
thinks “most likely” is too strong, please could you provide more
likely alternatives within the next few days!Talking to reporters over the last couple of days, I have the
impression that – while we all agree that importing huge numbers of
birds under dreadful conditions to release into unfamiliar
environments is a bad thing – we are giving out mixed messages on
what ought to be done about it. I would like to suggest that we all
agree on the EU’s solution, i.e. a permanent ban on the import of
wild-caught birds, with all captive-bred birds required to be fitted
with unique, traceable closed rings or microchips. If this was done
after consultation, and with perhaps a 1-year grace period, it should
cause nobody any hardship. Hong Kong can do without HK$4 birds.It would only impact the high-volume low-profit-margin end of the
bird trade, since many of the most popular cage-birds are already
captive-bred and the parrots, at least, have numbered rings. The
massive improvement in bird welfare should please the Buddhists and –
I hope – they would have second thoughts about releasing more
expensive birds of obvious captive origin. I cannot see Beijing
or Guangzhou objecting, since much of the current trade is illegal
or barely legal under a variety of local and national laws.Would WWF, TRAFFIC, HKBWS and/or KFBG be interested in drafting a
formal proposal on this that we could then all sign?Feel free to pass this around, but please don’t reply to everybody
unselectively since it just clogs people’s mailboxes.Best wishes,
Richard [Corlett]
Department of Ecology & Biodiversity
The University of Hong Kong
Pokfulam RoadJust come across batty, right-wing rant from public relations advisor Alan Caruba.
Titled America Goes Insane Over the Weather, it begins:Quote:It’s official. America is now totally insane over the weather.Continues, including:
Quote:To make matters worse, people are being told and actually believing that what they do or not can affect the weather in ways to keep the seas and temperatures from rising.
…
That is a definition of insanity.Goes on with a whole lot of unsubstantiated nonsense – for after all, his audience is right wing idiots, the sort who can’t figure that “weather” (short term) is different from “climate” (longer term).
Tells the idiots that carbon dioxide is not a pollutant; but if someone were to fill Mr Caruba’s home with nothing else, you might figure he’d complain a tad.Googling, quickly find that Caruba is a regular propounder of pap.
There’s a page dedicated to him on ExxonMobil Secrets, about organisations and people that are sceptical of warming and receive(d) funding from ExxonMobil (it’ll be interesting to see what these sceptics do now the company has said it will halt such funding, even started talks re lowering greenhouse gas emissions): Alan Caruba.Caruba’s abundant pap includes article titled Global warming: Lies, lies, damnable lies!, with typically vacuous statements, and even dissing the notion in New York Times editorial that “the seemingly indestructible snows of Kilimanjaro that inspired Ernest Hemingway’s famous short story may well disappear in the next 15 years.”
Perhaps Caruba is cheefully oblivious to readily available info such as:
Melting snow on Kilimanjaro – where graphics starkly show how in recent decades the once abundant snow and ice at the summit has melted to almost nothing.
See also NASA photos, Snow and ice on Mount KilimanjaroIn 2005, Caruba wrote another piece for right-wing idiots, It’s Getting Colder, Not Warmer.
Based this load of codswallop on one book, Caruba had the gall to assert:Quote:Science is a wonderful thing.– which is his most damnable lie of all. For if Caruba truly believed in science, he’d shut up, or cover the work by the vast majority of climate scientists that shows global warming is a reality.
But Caruba’s just another self-serving befuddler of idiots, trying to stave off attempts to recognise and maybe moderate the likely impacts of climate change.
Now, he has stooped to insultilng his own nation – calling America “insane” for becoming concerned about climate change.
Tempting to call him insane. But the truth, perhaps, is he’s just plain greedy, happy to take energy companies’ money and write whatever helps bring in the cheques.
If Caruba has descendants, wonder how they’ll feel as the earth warms and impacts are more widely felt.Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/19 14:01
From a Bloomberg item:
‘
Quote:Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) — Thailand, the world’s fourth-largest poultry exporter, found avian flu in pigeons and other wild birds, prompting the government to intensify surveillance for the lethal virus that threatens to infect humans.Four pigeons were among a group of wild birds that died last month in the central province of Suphan Buri. Tests confirmed they had the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, Thawat Suntrajarn, the Health Ministry’s director general of disease control, said in an interview broadcast on Business Radio today.
“We have asked all related officials to closely monitor the death of poultry and birds,” Thawat said. “Any people that have flu-like symptoms with a history of contacting poultry will be quarantined.”
…
There is little evidence linking human cases with contact with wild birds, said Denis Hoffmann, a technical adviser on avian flu with the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in Bangkok.“With good protection, there is not much concern about virus infection in wild birds” spreading to humans, Hoffmann said in a telephone interview today.
“A lot more blame has been put on migrating birds, but they are not necessary the cause” of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic fowl, he said. “There is a lot of evidence some bird flu is spread by the movement of poultry products and eggs.”
Thailand’s Agricultural Ministry yesterday said 2,100 poultry were culled to contain an outbreak in Phitsanulok province, about 377 kilometers (234 miles) north of Bangkok. Outbreaks in the Southeast Asian nation last year killed three people in July and August.
Thailand Reports H5N1 Avian Flu Strain in Wild Birds (Update4)
– wonder if the other “wild birds” were – like the pigeons – residents, living closely with man, including perhaps feeding on grain that’s been pooped on by chickens.
– slso good to see the FAO quote; tho must guess Joseph Domenech is still ready and willing to blame wild birds for nigh on all infections across borders.Reuters now with piece on Buddhists releasing birds in Hong Kong, inc:
Quote:Six scaly-breasted munias — a popular species of “prayer birds” used for release in Buddhist rituals to enhance a devotee’s karma — were found dead in a busy shopping on New Year’s eve, including one which tested positive for the H5N1 virus.
“We really have to seriously consider this possibility of (prayer bird) infection,” said Malik Peiris, a virologist and leading bird flu expert at the University of Hong Kong.
“In Hong Kong, there is no H5N1 activity in poultry. So for this bird that was found dead, the question is how (it) got infected?”
Prayer bird species range from munias, Japanese white-eye, white-rumped munia and tree sparrows costing as little as HK$4 (US$0.50) each, to the more expensive azure-winged magpies and Mongolian larks. Hunters in China use large fine “mist” nets that the birds fly into.
While the Hong Kong government tightly regulates poultry imports, laws for wild bird imports are much more lax, making it a potential crack in the city’s bird flu defences.
…
Richard Corlett, a professor of ecology at the University of Hong Kong, said the trade in wild birds was on a much larger scale than previously thought, with at least half a million birds freed by Buddhists in 2005, sometimes thousands at a time.
“Mongolian larks, for instance, must have been caught in northern China, trucked down to Hong Kong then released here in a totally unsuitable environment, where they promptly die.”
Mass bird release sites in quiet corners of Hong Kong’s country parks are often littered with discarded empty bamboo cages and dead bird carcasses, Corlett added.
Hong Kong’s concerns come as the European Union passed new laws last week banning imports of wild birds on health and animal welfare grounds, a move which Corlett said the Hong Kong government should follow.
“There’s a great deal of reluctance to acknowledge this is a problem … You can go and buy 10,000 budgerigars and release them in a country park and there’s nothing to stop you doing that,” Corlett said.
Some experts see unregulated imports of wild birds as a serious bird flu risk. “This speculation or hypothesis is becoming more and more of a concern. There is more evidence to support this,” said Dr. Lo Wing-lok an infectious diseases expert and former legislator.
…HK experts cite “prayer bird” concerns over H5N1
The (Hong Kong) Standard has a related item, inc:Quote:A microbiologist has called on the government to step up surveillance on the illegal trade of smuggled birds while an ecologist has suggested a complete ban on the release of wild birds in the SAR, even on religious grounds.
…
“The SAR government should deal with the problem at source and work with the Guangdong authorities to test the birds,” microbiologist Lo Wing-lok said Monday.Lo, who accused the government for trying to evade the problem, insists more can be done to monitor the illegal trade of smuggled wild birds from the mainland.
…
Hong Kong University ecologist Richard Corlett said the goshawk is a predator and the dead one found in Shek Kip Me was most likely released in a religious ceremony [or ate a released bird??].“Although we cannot know what bird it ate, we do know that the birds released by Buddhists are often in terrible condition because of the cruel way in which they are treated during capture, transport from the mainland and in captivity in Hong Kong, and this makes them very vulnerable to predators like a goshawk,” Corlett said.
He added that the more than half a million birds released in Hong Kong each year probably are eaten by predators shortly after being set free.
Corlett suggested a ban on the release of birds on grounds of animal cruelty since almost half a million are captured each year and transported to Hong Kong in atrocious conditions.
…Ban on wild bird release, smuggler watch sought
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/16 16:11
Yikes – trounced 5-0 in the Ashes series; first whitewash in over 80 years, and read that the team that had lost 5-0 before at least took one test to 6 days (those were timeless tests), so this team’s efforts even more feeble.
Somehow, good players, yet never firing as a team – while the Aussies just plain formidable.England also demolished in 20-20, and first one-day international; now hoping that can do better vs Kiwis tomorrow, but really, not looking good, esp with Pietersen out injured.
World Cup prospects look horribly, horribly bleak. As article in Telegraph noted, one-day cricket has been played in England since 1962 – yet our one-day international side looks abysmal.
We’ve heard of Fletcher and co wanting to focus on tests, pulling players out of county matches to do so. That strategy hasn’t worked.
Aussies strong in all forms of the game; and as I heard a commentator say, their strength in one-days helped too in tests: not so prone to hit ball to fielders, or become utterly becalmed.Business comment article in UK’s Independent covers pollution in China. Includes:
Quote:Environmental lobbyists have long castigated Americans as the planet’s “filthy rich”, but it is time we turned our attention to the East. You may be surprised to learn that China emitted more CO2 last year than the whole of Europe, and at current rates will overtake the US as the planet’s main polluter within two years. Already, 16 of the world’s top 20 most polluted cities are in China.
…
Nearly 80 per cent of its river water is now considered polluted. It was highly symbolic when a recent expedition to save the Yangtse dolphin (a beautiful creature, once considered a god in China) reported a few weeks ago that it was too late. None could be found.…
The pollution clouds from China blow across Korea and Japan and are even thought to be reaching the US. If viewed from space, vast sulphurous clouds blank out where Beijing and Shanghai should be on the planet.A Shanghai steel trader met me as I landed in China with the words “welcome to the future”. His beaming face portrayed the boundless optimism that is propelling China forwards. But if this future is one of poisoned water and smog-filled skies – forget it. It won’t work.
Wake up and smell the carbon.
Expert View: Message to China… wake up and smell the carbon
– Trouble is, it seems the national government has – albeit belatedly – woken up to China’s pollution problems, but isn’t powerful enough to solve the problem, including as local officials are too often greedy and corrupt, evidently quite happy to ignore pollution while the dollars flow in.
Even in Hong Kong, chief exec Donald Tsang has asserted that air pollution isn’t a major health issue; HK air isn’t as clean as the arctic’s, but not too bad he has claimed.
As I write this, the visibility in HK is a few hundred metres, thanks to severe smog as a cold front trundles our way.from HK Govt press release, 13 Jan:
Quote:Preliminary testing of a dead bird found in Shek Kip Mei has indicated a suspected case of H5 avian influenza, a spokesman for the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department said today (January 13).Further confirmatory tests are still being conducted.
The carcass of the Crested Goshawk was collected by department staff at the hill behind Shek Kip Mei Health Centre on January 9 after being alerted by a member of the public.
Crested Goshawk is a raptor, preying on birds – chiefly songbirds.
Shek Kip Mei is highly urban, chiefly residential area in north Kowloon, with high-rise housing estates. Near the scrubby hillsides of hills just north of Kowloon, so wild Crested Goshawk may well occur here. (Though hope it’s checked for signs it was held in captivity, and dumped – as with at least one HK peregrine with H5N1).
My view: if proves to have H5N1, likely caught through a bird it ate. Can speculate that this was a bird released from captivity. (Or, if the goshawk wsa captive, fed on diseased chicken or some other bird.)Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/14 02:36
From Associated Press/Canadian Press article:
Quote:HONG KONG (AP) – Something was strange about the little brown bird found dead from bird flu in one of Hong Kong’s busiest shopping districts. The scaly breasted munia usually lives in rural areas of the territory. So how did it and five others come to be in a bustling urban district – raising the threat of exposing residents and tourists to the virus? Experts think the birds may have been used in a Buddhist ritual that frees hundreds of birds to improve karma. So, with worries rising in Asia about a new outbreak of bird flu, officials are urging the religious practice be stopped to protect public health. ,,, The scaly breasted munia is native to Hong Kong but is usually found in tussocks in rural areas, said Lew Young, a manager at the Chinese territory’s Mai Po bird sanctuary. "Six scaly breasted munia being found dead at the same spot at one time easily leads one to suspect whether they were being released," he said. The birds are commonly used in the Buddhist ceremonies, Young added. "They are usually transported to Hong Kong from the mainland in boxes. If one of the birds is sick, the rest are likely to be sick as well since they are crammed in one box," he said. Aidia Chan, a postgraduate student in ecology who studied the releases for her thesis last year at Hong Kong University, said the frequency of releasing birds in Hong Kong is far more than had been suspected. She contacted 229 religious groups in the city and 48 admitted they released birds to seek blessings. The groups practise the ritual one to 18 times each year, releasing as many as 3,000 birds each time, she said. "Based on the figures they gave me, I estimate they released a range of 400,000 to 600,000 birds in 2006," Chan said. "There are also people who buy and release birds individually and there’s no way for me to quantify them, so there should be more other than these 48 groups," she said. …Hong Kong Buddhists release birds in ritual, despite bird flu worries
Info from Nial Moores of Birds Korea:
As background to the South Korean outbreaks, the following published information on AI sampling of wild bird populations in South Korea (provided today by Dr. Lee Hansoo), is especially useful:
Kim (2006) contains the following results of wild bird surveillance activity.
2003-04 winter: Tested 5,460 fecal samples, isolate 26 LPAI
2004-05 winter: Tested 3,970 fecal samples, isolate 34 LPAI
2005-06 winter: Tested 4,415 fecal samples, isolate 31 LPAI
2005-06 winter along DMZ area: Tested 1,900 fecal samples, isolate 46 LPAINational Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service (NVRQS) teams tested the fecal sample of waterfowl in various areas since the 2003 AI outbreak, but they isolated only LPAI virus.
(During the current outbreak period, the NVRQS team apparently did not yet find any HPAI virus among the collected waterfowl samples.)
Reference:
Kim, Yong Ju. 2006. The characteristics of avian influenza virus by the active surveillance among wild birds. Proceedings of the epidemiological characteristics of HPAI and wild bird surveillance activity. pp 19-31. National Veterinary Research & Quarantine Service.Press release from HK Govt:
Quote:The scaly-breasted munia found dead in Causeway Bay earlier this week was confirmed to be H5N1 positive after a series of laboratory tests, the Agriculture, Fisheries & Conservation Department says.The carcass was collected by AFCD staff in Leighton Road following a public referral on December 31.
The department reminded people to observe good personal hygiene, adding they should avoid personal contact with wild birds and live poultry and clean their hands thoroughly after coming into contact with them.
Meanwhile, the department has urged the public not to release pet birds as they have little chance of surviving in the wild.
Noting a report alleging that there is no control on such imports from the Mainland was incorrect, the department emphasised that all consignments from the Mainland must comply with requirements including health certification, and they are subject to inspection whether they enter by sea, air or land in accordance with Public Health (Animals & Birds) Regulations.
Inspection stepped up
The department has stepped up inspection of the Bird Garden from three times a week to five. Samples are regularly collected for testing for avian influenza viruses.
Of the 2,400 samples that were tested last year, none was positive for bird flu.
Fresh droppings from wild birds including migratory birds are also collected for H5 avian influenza testing. Last year, 6,400 samples were collected and the results were all negative.
As for dead birds collected for testing last year, 17 of about 10,000 birds were tested positive.
Dead bird tests positive for H5N1
– as with records of dead birds with H5N1 early last year, an oddity.
Leighton Road’s a curious location for finding a “wild” bird of almost any kind – might get sparrows, but I’ve walked along quite often, and not noticed any birds there: it’s urban, and more than a stone’s throw from even Victoria Park.
Species odd too: I haven’t seen this species in urban HK, not even in parks. Mainly in rural spots, esp grassy areas such as former rice fields, wetlands near Deep Bay. Have seen on Cheung Chau, where I live; only occasional there, so some evidence of wandering.
Checking HK Birdwatchin Soc page, this is one of the two most commonly released specise at temples – released so people can supposedly get karma boost.More info in thread on the HKBWS site – including distribution map, showing this species wasn’t mapped in urban areas including Causeway Bay, as well as article from S China Morning Post on possible link to bird releases, including:
Quote:Richard Corlett, professor of ecology and biodiversity at the University of Hong Kong, said a complete ban on releasing birds was preferable.
“It is a danger to public health because the sellers and buyers come into contact with birds and bird droppings with none of the precautions that are taken with poultry, and the birds are then released into the environment,” he said.
A study by a post-doctoral student last year estimated that between 500,000 and a million birds are imported for release every year, Professor Corlett said.
“[These birds] are mostly caught in China. They are not vaccinated, quarantined or inspected, and they were transported into Hong Kong in appallingly dirty and crowded conditions. Many of them are sick and injured,” he said.at http://www.hkbws.org.hk/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1125
Further info – after an email request for guff on the location:
A map of Causeway Bay – not too great – shows Leighton Road:
http://www.hoteltravel.com/hongkong/hong_kong/causeway_bay_map.htmYes, it’s near stops on the main tram route from Harcourt Garden/Central east to North Point and beyond. Also close to a major MTR station. Causeway Bay’s a bustling area, especially for shopping.
Main HK bird market isn’t here, but in Kowloon. There are, though, a few bird shops scattered around – can’t remember if in Causeway Bay area, but plausible in side streets.
There’s a Tin Hau temple a few hundred metres to the east. Can’t recall other temples, but there are plenty of temples scattered around HK.I noticed re the h5n1 positive munia being among five dead birds (all munias?) picked up on Leighton Road. To me, indeed suggestive of being dropped from van, say.
The road is lined by commercial buildings, maybe with a few apartment blocks (pricier; not the kinds of places I’d expect to be transient points for birds).Last year’s minor flurry of h5n1 in “wild birds” involved several rather similar cases – chiefly urban, at least one only a block or two away from main bird market, another very close to a major temple.
I then figured that any traders with birds dying of what may be H5N1 would try to dispose of them without officials knowing.Meanwhile – touch wood – our key reserve for wild birds is yet to record a single case, despite extensive testing. (I’m of course hoping it stays this way; hope that no h5n1 somehow introduced from farms/markets – densely packed waterbird flocks could be impacted.)
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/10 16:17
Financial Times, on report to be released next week by European Commission:
Quote:A dire set of predictions of the consequences of global warming in Europe is contained in a report for the European Commission. It forecasts that by 2071 climate change will cause droughts and floods that will kill 90,000 people a year while damage from rising sea levels will cost tens of billions of euros.
…
Crop yields would rise by up to 70 per cent in northern Europe but fall by up to a fifth in the south, depending on the temperature increase.
…
The sea level could rise by up to a metre.
…
The ocean would acidify, hitting fish stocks. Fish would also migrate northwards. Droughts and floods would be more severe.
…
The report has a hopeful conclusion. A Belgian government study last year found that cutting carbon dioxide emissions in the EU by between 15 and 30 per cent between 1990 and 2020 would have no overall effect on jobs, as new ones would be created in high-technology sectors such as renewable energy. “Reducing global emissions in 2050 to a level that is 25 per cent below that of 1990 is both technically and economically achievable,” the study concludes.EU’s grim climate change warning
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/06 21:33
Article in Independent newspaper cites some of odd changes in wildlife as temperatures rise. This a day after I saw a near full-summer plumage Great Crested Grebe at Scarborough, North Yorkshire – till now, had seen some hundreds or thousands of these, and all those from autumn to early spring in the very different winter plumage. Also at Scarborough, a dearth of wintering sea ducks when I walked stretch of coast where I’d formerly see tens or even hundreds of them. Been here – holiday at home town – over a week now, and not even seen frost yet. Follows warmest year on record for the UK. so, from Independent:
Quote:The CJ Wild Bird Foods company near Shrewsbury has announced that the demand for its products has all but disappeared, because the mild winter had maintained an alternative supply of berries for finches, tits and other species. Some species, such as the dunlin and purple sandpiper, are disappearing from Britain as they can find enough warmth in Scandinavia. … More evidence of the consequences of failure arrived yesterday from conservation groups who reported that climate change was causing the deaths of hundreds of baby hedgehogs, born out of season. Confused by the milder autumn months, the creatures are continuing to breed rather than hibernate. … An indication of the effects of climate change on fish has also arrived this week, from a team of German scientists who warned that rising sea temperatures were killing off the eelpout. The fish, which lives in the North and Baltic seas, has been hit by warmer summers, which have increased its need for oxygen at the same time as the water’s oxygen levels have dropped. The researchers’ studies of the fish’s biology showed the first thing to suffer as temperatures rise beyond 17°C was its oxygen supply. …‘Irreversible’ global warming claims its first victims of the New Year – last point interesting to me, as I was recently at global warming workshop at HK Univ; aquatic life expert Prof David Dudgeon gave talk, suggesting fish [at higher altitudes, cooler places] could have problems breathing as warmer water contains less oxygen. An article on Scientific American site has more info on the fish: Fish Fin?: How Climate Change Is Hurting Cold Water Fish A bottom-loving fish in the North Sea shows how climate change can directly impact aquatic species–and presage their local doom
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/07 18:48
Further info from Klemens Steiof:
1
Klemens Steiof 2.1.2007
Wichgrafstraße 16A
14482 Potsdam
[email protected]
Geflügelpest – Rolle der Zugvögel
Zu dem Thema hatte ich mich mit drei Briefen vom 27.2.06, 6.3.06 und 15.3.06 zu Wort gemeldet,
und die Gedanken zusammenfassend im Mai 2006 in den „ZGAP Mitteilungen“1 und
umfassender im Juli 2006 in den „Berichten zum Vogelschutz“2 veröffentlicht. Dem ist auch
jetzt fachlich nichts grundlegend Anderes hinzuzufügen.
Zahlreiche Anfragen und die jüngste Risikobewertung der zuständigen oberen Bundesbehörde
(Friedrich-Löffler-Institut, FLI)3 veranlassen mich, noch einmal Stellung zu beziehen.
Spätestens seit dem Umgang mit dem im Zoo Dresden an Geflügelpest gestorbenen Trauerschwan,
als für die Infektion dieses Zoovogels heimische Wildvögel verantwortlich gemacht
wurden, stellt sich mir die Frage nach den Motiven für die Wildvogelbeschuldigungen. Daher
füge ich den fachlichen noch weitere Gedanken an.
Fachlicher Aspekt
Es ist in der Zwischenzeit deutlich geworden, dass Zugvögel – oder Wildvögel allgemein –
als Vektor der Geflügelpest weltweit keine relevante Rolle spielen. Natürlich können Wildvögel,
wenn sie irgendwo infiziert wurden, noch eine gewisse Strecke fliegen, doch sterben
sie in der Regel innerhalb weniger Tage und mit ihnen verschwindet das Virus aus dem
Freiland. Dieses haben wir auch in Deutschland im Frühjahr erlebt, als eine weiträumige
Streuung von H5N1-Opfern auftrat. Infektionen weiterer Vögel im Freiland sind offensichtlich
sehr selten, und längere Infektionsketten weltweit nicht nachweisbar. Es ist vielmehr davon
auszugehen, dass Neuinfektionen auf die Produktions- und Handelsbereiche des Geflügels
oder der Geflügelprodukte zurückzuführen sind.
Es ist bezeichnend, dass das Virus global dort auftrat und auftritt, wo Handelswege es hinführten,
und nicht dorthin, wo die Zugvögel hinflogen. Die weiten Bereiche des asiatischeuropäischen
Vogelzuges blieben 2005 und 2006 von der Seuche verschont, auch die
Hauptüberwinterungsgebiete der asiatischen Wasservögel waren virenfrei. Stattdessen trat
H5N1 wenn, dann in den Geflügelhaltungen auf, aktuell nach 3 Jahren auch wieder in Südkorea4.
Eine im Herbst publizierte Veröffentlichung5 versucht zwar, die Westausbreitung der
„Asia-Variante“ von H5N1 im Sommer 2005 mit Zugvogelbewegungen zu erklären, verwen-
1 Steiof (2006): Sind Zugvögel Überträger und Verbreiter der Geflügelpest? ZGAP Mitteilungen Jg. 22,
Heft 1/2006: 21-23; publ. Mai 2006.
2 Steiof (2005): Wird die Geflügelpest durch Zugvögel übertragen? Berichte zum Vogelschutz Nr. 42:
15-32; publ. Juli 2006. (Kann auf Wunsch als pdf-Datei zugesandt werden.)
3 FLI (2006): Bewertung des Risikos zur Einschleppung von hochpathogenem aviären Influenzavirus
H5N1 in Hausgeflügelbestände in Deutschland, Stand 1.12.06. Internetmitteilung.
4 Eine detaillierte Beschreibung findet sich unter http://www.birdskorea.org.
5 Gilbert, M., X. Xiao, J. Domenech, J. Lubroth, V. Martin & J. Slingenbergh (2006): Anatidae Migration
in the Western Palearctic and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus. Emerging
Infectious Diseases Vol. 12, No. 11: 1650-1656.
2
det aber keine ornithologischen Daten, sondern bemüht sich, den Zusammenhang von Virenausbreitung
und Vogelzug über Interpretationen von Klimakarten herzuleiten. Dies führt
zu fachlich nicht haltbaren Ergebnissen. Die Arbeit interpretiert nicht nur die Klimakarten verkehrt,
sondern lässt u.a. außer Acht, dass in den Durchzugsgebieten der zentralasiatischen
und westsibirischen Vögel keine Geflügelpest im Freiland auftrat. Gerade die Westausbreitung
2005 ± quer zur Hauptvogelzugrichtung und zeitlich losgelöst vom Vogelzug war ja ein
ganz deutlicher Hinweis auf die Handelswege. Weitere Mängel dieser Arbeit listet Petermann6
auf.
Darüber hinaus hat man trotz großer Anstrengungen (allein in Europa 10.000de von Proben
seit dem Frühjahr; weltweit insgesamt über 200.000) immer noch keine Wildvogelart gefunden,
in deren Population das Virus „zirkuliert“. Es ist somit kein Vektor von hoch pathogenem
Vogelgrippevirus unter den Wildvögeln bekannt. Allein damit hätte sich die Wildvogelthese
bereits erledigt. Und selbst wenn behauptet wird, dass dies an unzureichender Beprobung
liegt – angesichts der hohen Probenzahl eine recht hilflos wirkende Behauptung – so wäre
damit auch nicht die derzeitige Abwesenheit im Freiland zu erklären. Denn selbst wenn das
Virus in einer Wildvogelpopulation vorhanden wäre ohne diese zu schädigen, so müssten
ständig Übertragungen auch an andere Vögel stattfinden, und es müssten immer wieder
Masseninfektionen sowie zeitliche und räumliche Infektionsketten auftreten. Tatsächlich gibt
es seit dem Frühjahr 2006 gibt es keinen Fall eines betroffenen Wildvogels in Europa, mit
Ausnahme eines jungen Haubentauchers im Baskenland (Spanien). Dieser wurde im Juli
2006 gemeldet, war aber nach Meldung von BirdLife offenbar schon seit Mai tot, die Fundumstände
sind nicht bekannt geworden7. Ob hier ein Zusammenhang mit infizierten Wildvögeln
oder z.B. mit Geflügelprodukten besteht, ist völlig unklar; in Spanien waren im Februar
2006 21 Tonnen geschmuggeltes Geflügelfleisch aus China entdeckt worden. Einmal
mehr zeigt sich hier die Unbrauchbarkeit der offiziellen Statistiken, die einen Fund mit dem
Datum der Laborfeststellung angeben, nicht mit dem Datum des Fundes im Freiland.
Die fachlichen Feststellungen und Einschätzungen aus ornithologischer Sicht decken sich
mit aktuellen evolutionsbiologischen Überlegungen zur Ökologie von Vogelgrippeviren: Weder
ist es wahrscheinlich, dass hoch pathogene Vogelgrippeviren in Wildvogelbeständen
entstehen, noch dass Wildvögel eine wesentliche Rolle bei der Verbreitung spielen können8.
Für das Auftreten auf Rügen oder in Süddeutschland ist mir keine völlig plausible Erklärung
bekannt geworden. Hinweise auf mögliche Freisetzungen durch das FLI selbst sind beispielsweise
nicht überprüfbar, unabhängige Kontrollen fanden offenbar gar nicht statt. Einflüge
von Wildvögeln aus Gebieten mit bereits vorhandenem Geflügelpestauftreten (vor allem
SE-Europa) nach Rügen in der 2. Januar- oder 1. Februarhälfte sind ebenfalls nicht bekannt
geworden, und zu dieser Jahreszeit auch nicht sehr wahrscheinlich. Die süddeutschen
Fälle könnten theoretisch Streufunde sein, die auf Virusausträge in Ost-Frankreich (Putenfarm
in Les Dombes) oder dem pannonischen Becken (Ungarn, Kroatien, Rumänien) zurückzuführen
sind. Bei Les Dombes wären Jahreszeit und Zugrichtung von Wildvögeln passend
(Heimzug Richtung Nordost). Aus der ungarischen Tiefebene führt die Donau als potenzielle
Leitlinie für Wasservögel nach Süddeutschland, doch ist hier die Zugrichtung (Nord
bis Westnordwest) für mittwinterliche Flugbewegungen bei Dauerfrost nicht sehr nahe liegend,
ein Ausweichen dieser Vögel zum Mittelmeer wäre wohl wahrscheinlicher. Zudem ist
anzuzweifeln, dass an Geflügelpest erkrankte Wildvögel noch sehr weite Strecken fliegen
können. Alternative Virentransporte durch den Handel (LKW aus der Türkei oder Rumänien,
illegale Geflügelimporte usw.) konnten ebenfalls nicht plausibel gemacht werden, wurden
6 Petermann, P. (in Vorber.): Misunderstood waterbird ecology and the spread of Avian Influenza – a
correction of Gilbert et al.
7 http://www.birdlife.org/news/news/2006/07/grebe.html
8 Muzaffar, S. B., R. C. Ydenberg & I. L. Jones (2006): Avian Influenza: An Ecological and
Evolutionary Perspective for Waterbird Scientists. – Waterbirds 29 (3): 243-257. (Kann auf Wunsch als
pdf-Datei zugesandt warden.)
3
aber offenkundig auch nicht intensiv untersucht. Somit muss man leider feststellen, dass wir
die Ursachen für das Freilandauftreten in Deutschland nicht kennen.
Profiteure der Wildvogelbeschuldigungen
Ich habe mich im Laufe der vergangenen Monate zunehmend gefragt, wer von der These
profitiert, dass Wildvögel das Virus verbreiten. Es war sehr auffällig, wie die durch nichts belegte
Rolle der Wildvögel immer wieder in den Vordergrund gerückt wurde. Zu den Profiteuren
gehören z.B.:
· Geflügelindustrie – Der Verweis auf Wildvögel lenkt von der möglichen eigenen
Verantwortung an der Verbreitung des Virus ab. Gleichzeitig wird die Konkurrenz der
Freilandhaltung zurückgedrängt.
· Pharmaindustrie – Die allgemeine Panik vor der Vogelgrippe hat die Umsätze von
Grippeschutzmitteln stark steigen lassen. Dies betrifft sowohl Impfstoffe für das Geflügel,
als auch „Vorbeugungsmittel“ gegen eine „Pandemie“, wie z.B. Tamiflu.
· Forschungseinrichtungen – Mit dem Hinweis auf unbekannte Gefahren sind auch in
Deutschland Forschungsmittel verteilt worden. Unter anderem wurden dem FLI im
August 150 Mio. € für den Ausbau des Institutes bewilligt. Dies wird in der Pressemitteilung
des FLI vom 8.8.06 wie folgt begründet: „Die Investition … ist auch ein Zeichen
dafür, wie wichtig Tierseuchenforschung auch heute noch ist. BSE und Geflügelpest
haben das ja gerade in letzter Zeit nachdrücklich deutlich gemacht.“
Insbesondere auch die Welternährungsorganisation (FAO) und in ihrem Gefolge Weltgesundheitsorganisation
(WHO) und Welttierseuchenorganisation (OIE) waren massive Befürworter
der Zugvogelthese. Dies mag zum Teil darauf zurückzuführen sein, dass auch in diesen
Einrichtungen ökologischer und ornithologischer Sachverstand offenbar nicht ausreichend
vorhanden ist. Um die Motive allerdings vollständiger zu verstehen, müsste man sich
intensiv mit weltweitem Lobbyismus vor allem von Pharma- und Geflügelindustrie beschäftigen.
Gleichwohl relativieren diese Einrichtungen seit dem Herbst die Rolle der Wildvögel.
Diese Schlaglichter zeigen, dass es um viel Geld, um Macht und Einfluss, und in einigen
Fällen mittlerweile vermutlich auch um Gesichtswahrung geht. Damit haben wir die fachlichnaturwissenschaftliche
Ebene längst verlassen.
Zur bisherigen Rolle des FLI
Seit dem zeitlich völlig isolierten Auftreten von H5N1 bei einem gehaltenen Zoovogel im
Sommer 2006, dem Trauerschwan im Zoo Dresden, fällt es mir sehr schwer, Veröffentlichungen
dieses Instituts noch in Gänze glauben zu können. Denn das FLI hat den Fall als
Nachweis dafür gewertet, „dass das hochpathogene H5N1 Virus noch in der Wildvogelpopulation
im Land ist und sich wieder ausbreiten kann“ (Pressemitteilung vom 7.9.06). Man
kann sich kaum ausmalen, wie viele mögliche Wege das Virus in einen zoologischen Garten
genommen haben kann, von Tierimporten über Futtermittel bis hin zu Besuchern. Im Freiland
war das Virus ja bereits seit über zwei Monaten verschwunden.
In der Statistik des FLI wird der Trauerschwan als „Wildvogel“ geführt, und in der eingangs
erwähnten Risikobewertung vom 1.12.06 schrieb das FLI: „Jedoch zeigen Nachweise von
HPAI H5N1 bei Wildvögeln in Spanien und Deutschland die fortwährende Präsenz des Erregers
in der Wildvogelpopulation an.“ Bei diesen beiden „Wildvögeln“ handelt es sich wie gesagt
um den jungen Haubentaucher in Spanien und den Zoovogel aus Dresden.
Abgesehen von dieser fachlich fragwürdigen Aussage haben das FLI und die anderen zuständigen
Einrichtungen in Deutschland nicht viel dazu beigetragen, aus dem Auftreten von
H5N1 bei Wildvögeln tatsächliche Erkenntnisse zu gewinnen. Dies beginnt mit der lückenhaften
bis fehlerhaften Bestimmung der tot aufgefundenen und positiv getesteten Wildvögel
(Art, Geschlecht, Altersstufe, möglichst Herkunft). Es setzt sich fort mit der Frage, wie viele
4
dieser Vögel denn ursächlich an dem Virus gestorben sind. Weiterhin fehlt grundsätzlich die
Analyse der Fundumstände, die aber für die Bewertung der Situation unumgänglich ist. Ohne
derartige ornithologische und ökologische Feststellungen im Freiland ist die epidemiologische
Situation überhaupt nicht zu analysieren. Da ist es nur konsequent, den ökologischen
Unverstand damit zu dokumentieren, dass man Zoovögel als „Wildvögel“ in die Statistik eingehen
lässt. Es hat im Februar sicherlich eine Situation der Überforderung gegeben (obschon
das FLI selbst rechtzeitig vor dem Auftreten des Virus im Freiland gewarnt hatte), aber
danach hätte das Vorgehen strukturiert werden müssen. So sind offenbar viele für die Analyse
des Auftretens im Freiland wertlose Labordaten entstanden.
Darüber hinaus sind nach wie vor Fragen der Übertragungswege, der artspezifischen Empfänglichkeit
und der artspezifischen Empfindlichkeit von Wildvögeln weitgehend ungeklärt,
um nur einige Aspekte zu nennen.
Was ist bei künftigem Auftreten der Geflügelpest zu tun?
Wenn man sich von der äußerst unwahrscheinlichen Annahme frei macht, dass Wildvogelpopulationen
das Virus in sich tragen, dann sind andere Handlungsoptionen sehr naheliegend.
Denn die Kernfrage ist: Auf welche Weise ist das Virus an den jeweiligen Ort gelangt?
Dies gilt sowohl für Wildvogelbestände, als auch Hausgeflügel und sonstige gehaltenen Vögel,
auch in Zoos.
Im Freiland wäre sofort zu klären, welche Vogelarten betroffen sind (inklusive Geschlecht,
Alter, möglichst Herkunft). Selbstverständlich sollte der sonstige Zustand der Tiere untersucht
und die Befunde pathologisch abgesichert werden. Die Fundumstände sind genau zu
dokumentieren. Nach Möglichkeit sind Individuen der gleichen Art und nahrungsökologisch
ähnlicher Arten in der direkten Umgebung ebenfalls zu beproben. Denn es ist in vielen Fällen
davon auszugehen, dass sich die Vögel über die Nahrung infiziert haben. Hierzu sollten die
effizientesten Fangmethoden verwendet werden.
Je nach Situation, wenn z.B. Streufunde von bekannten Infektionsherden unwahrscheinlich
sind, können auch illegale Handlungen vorliegen. Inzwischen wissen wir aus zahlreichen
anderen Skandalen wie BSE und Gammelfleisch, dass für Gewinnerzielung auch illegal gehandelt
und zur Strafvermeidung vertuscht wird. Bei Vorliegen eines Anfangsverdachtes, wie
z.B. eines an Geflügelpest erkrankten Vogels, sollte daher möglichst unverzüglich mit kriminalistischen
Methoden vorgegangen werden. Einfache Befragungen wie offenbar bisher erfolgt
sind nicht ausreichend, um beispielsweise illegale Vogelimporte, Bezüge von Futtermitteln
oder Impfstoffen aus dubiosen Quellen oder aber die Entsorgung von gestorbenem
Geflügel zu ermitteln.
Geflügelpest und Artenschutz
Die Ereignisse haben gezeigt, dass es vordringlich wichtig ist, Wildvogelpopulationen vor
Austrägen von Krankheitserregern aus der Geflügelhaltung zu schützen. Insbesondere Wasservögel,
die sich aus ökologischen Gründen an Gewässern konzentrieren, sind potenziell
höchst gefährdet. Diese Situation verschärft sich weltweit immer mehr, je stärker die verbliebenen
Feuchtgebiete durch Menschen zerstört oder beeinflusst werden (Eindeichung, Trockenlegung,
Eutrophierung, Einleitung von Schadstoffen, Verschmutzung, Freizeitnutzung,
Jagd usw.). Bei vielen Wasservogelarten gibt es heutzutage große Konzentrationen, vor allem
zu den Zugzeiten und während der Überwinterung. Was würde beispielsweise aktuell in
Südkorea passieren, wenn Virusausträge aus der Geflügelhaltung in das Hauptüberwinterungsgebiet
der Gluckente erfolgen? Fast der gesamte Weltbestand befindet sich über mehrere
Monate in diesem Gebiet; die Gesamtpopulation dieser Vogelart könnte betroffen sein.
Vor diesen Hintergründen kann Geflügelpest oder eine andere Haustierseuche künftig noch
mehr zu einem Problem des Natur- und Artenschutzes werden.
5
Anmerkung
Ich möchte nicht ausschließen, dass es noch andere Erklärungen für das Auftreten der Geflügelpest
bei uns gibt, zu lückenhaft ist der derzeitige Wissensstand. So weisen einzelne
Publikationen darauf hin, dass es sich bei H5N1 um ein völlig aufgebauschtes Problem handeln
könnte9. Und tatsächlich hat es ja auf Rügen trotz der Kälte im Januar bis März 2006
kein Massensterben gegeben: Unter den über 106.000 anwesenden Wasservögeln gab es
eine normale Wintersterblichkeit, und 158 von den tot gefundenen Vögeln wurden positiv auf
H5N1 getestet.
Andere Überlegungen schließen die Verwendung von nicht gänzlich inaktivierten Impfstoffen
ein, die z.B. über das Internet aus China angeboten wurden. Sie könnten zum spontanen
Auftreten der Geflügelpest in verschiedenen Betrieben geführt haben. Auch können Impfungen
künftig zu einer stärkeren Verbreitung der Seuche führen, da befallene Geflügelbestände
nicht mehr auffallen; das Virus zirkuliert unerkannt unter dem Schirm des geimpften
Geflügelbestandes. Dies hat möglicherweise in China in den letzten beiden Jahren bereits
stattgefunden.
Es ist zu befürchten, dass uns die Thematik noch einige Zeit beschäftigen wird. Aber es ist
zu hoffen, dass es künftig einen Erkenntniszuwachs gibt, wenn sich die Verantwortlichen den
wahrscheinlichen Übertragungswegen zuwenden.
Klemens Steiof, Potsdam, 2.1.2007
9 z.B. Buch „Virus-Wahn“ von T. Engelbrecht & C. Köhnlein oder DVD „H5N1 antwortet nicht“ von M.
Leitner & T.A. Hein, herausgegeben von Neue Impulse e.V. (www.neue-impulse-treff.de)Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/04 20:02
From a Vietnamese newspaper article (appeared on Promed):
Quote:Just as bird flu resurfaced again after a one-year absence, authorities reported an alarming four tons of illegal Chinese fowl arrived in Vietnam since December last year in a northern province bordering China.
Lang Son provincial authorities also said they confiscated nearly two tons of fowl transported from China on three occasions on Tuesday alone.In Quang Ninh province, also in the north, as the New Year was approaching last Thursday and Friday, local authorities confiscated 1.2 tons, said Nguyen Dang Truong, head of the province’s market management.
…
A Tuoi Tre journalist in the role of a fowl trader on Tuesday managed to convince an experienced middlemen called Trung to take him to the Na Pan Bridge in Lang Son’s Bao Lam commune bordering China.
…
A while further, we saw many chicken pens lying haphazardly somewhere on the Vietnam-China border.The scene was sickening. Each pen was cramped with over 20 chickens, mostly having pale-white cheeks, dull eyes, drooping heads, feathers being stuck together and all emitting foul smells. Some even salivated.
…
they can earn over VND100,000 ($6.25) a trip, a fortune for rural residents.The masterminds behind the scene, the traders – then transported the chicken, mostly very cheap, to downtown areas for sale.
…Union of Concerned Scientists now criticising Exxon for funding people prone to saying "Warming, what warming?" – and bamboozling the public into believing there is something of a debate among scientists re whether warming is happening, and is probably a major problem.
Quote:WASHINGTON — Exxon Mobil Corp. gave $16 million to 43 ideological groups between 1998 and 2005 in a coordinated effort to mislead the public by discrediting the science behind global warming, the Union of Concerned Scientists asserted today. The report by the science-based nonprofit advocacy group mirrors similar claims by Britain’s leading scientific academy. Last September, The Royal Society wrote the oil company asking it to halt support for groups that "misrepresented the science of climate change." Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the scientific advocacy group’s report. …Scientists accuse Exxon Mobil of discrediting global warming
On Union of Concerned Scientists’ site, see press release, and link to report, at: Scientists’ Report Documents ExxonMobil’s Tobacco-like Disinformation Campaign on Global Warming Science Oil Company Spent Nearly $16 Million to Fund Skeptic Groups, Create Confusion includes:
Quote:"ExxonMobil has manufactured uncertainty about the human causes of global warming just as tobacco companies denied their product caused lung cancer," said Alden Meyer, the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Director of Strategy & Policy. "A modest but effective investment has allowed the oil giant to fuel doubt about global warming to delay government action just as Big Tobacco did for over 40 years." … "As a scientist, I like to think that facts will prevail, and they do eventually," said Dr. James McCarthy, Alexander Agassiz Professor of Biological Oceanography at Harvard University and former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s working group on climate change impacts. "It’s shameful that ExxonMobil has sought to obscure the facts for so long when the future of our planet depends on the steps we take now and in the coming years." …Also from the Independent:
Quote:One of the world’s leading experts on climate change has warned that the Earth is being turned into a “different planet” because of the continuing increase in man-made emissions of greenhouse gases.In an interview with The Independent, Jim Hansen, who was one of the first scientists to warn of climate change in scientific testimony to the US Congress in 1988, claimed that we have less than 10 years to begin to curb carbon dioxide emissions before global warming runs out of control and changes the landscape forever.
…
“If we follow business as usual, and we don’t get off this course where year by year we’re getting larger and larger emissions of CO2, then we’ll have large sea-level rises this century and I think that will become more apparent over the next decade or two,” Dr Hansen said.“The last time it was 3C warmer, sea levels were 25 metres higher, plus or minus 10 metres. You’d not get that in one century, but you could get several metres in one century,” he said.
As yet another hot year for the planet has just ended, article in Independent suggests 2007 could set new high for hottest year on record worldwide:
Quote:A combination of global warming and the El Niño weather system is set to make 2007 the warmest year on record with far-reaching consequences for the planet, one of Britain’s leading climate experts has warned.…the forecast for the next 12 months is of extreme global weather patterns which could bring drought to Indonesia and leave California under a deluge.
The warning, from Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, was one of four sobering predictions from senior scientists and forecasters that 2007 will be a crucial year for determining the response to global warming and its effect on humanity.
Professor Jones said the long-term trend of global warming – already blamed for bringing drought to the Horn of Africa and melting the Arctic ice shelf – is set to be exacerbated by the arrival of El Niño, the phenomenon caused by above-average sea temperatures in the Pacific.
…
The warning of the escalating impact of global warming was echoed by Jim Hansen, the American scientist who, in 1988, was one of the first to warn of climate change.In an interview with The Independent, Dr Hansen predicted that global warming would run out of control and change the planet for ever unless rapid action is taken to reverse the rise in carbon emissions.
World faces hottest year ever, as El Niño combines with global warming
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/01 20:21
Quote:RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil: Global warming could spell the end of the world’s largest remaining tropical rain forest, transforming the Amazon into a grassy savanna before end of the century, researchers said Friday.Jose Antonio Marengo, a meteorologist with Brazil’s National Space Research Institute, said that global warming, if left unchecked, will reduce rainfall and raise temperatures substantially in the ecologically rich region.
“We are working with two scenarios: a worst case and a second, more optimistic one,” he said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.
“The worst case scenario sees temperatures rise by 5 to 8 degrees (Celsius) until 2100, while rainfall will decrease between 15 and 20 percent. This setting will transform the Amazon rain forest into a savanna-like landscape,” Marengo said.
…Global warming could transform Amazon into savanna in 100 years, Brazil researchers say
Quote:By Kim ChipmanDec. 27 (Bloomberg) — Global warming is causing sea ice to melt, putting polar bears at risk and prompting the Bush administration to propose listing the cold-weather mammal as a threatened species, Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne said.
…
The loss of ice is forcing the animals inland and away from their hunting grounds. In Canada’s Western Hudson Bay, the polar bear population has declined 22 percent since 1987 and U.S. officials said they worry that similar declines may occur in Alaska.“There is concern their habitat may literally be melting,” Kempthorne said on a conference call with reporters.
Quote:TORONTO, Ontario (AP) — A giant ice shelf the size of 11,000 football fields has snapped free from Canada’s Arctic, scientists said. The mass of ice broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 800 kilometers (497 miles) south of the North Pole, but no one was present to see it in Canada’s remote north. Scientists using satellite images later noticed that it became a newly formed ice island in just an hour and left a trail of icy boulders floating in its wake. Warwick Vincent of Laval University, who studies Arctic conditions, traveled to the newly formed ice island and could not believe what he saw. "This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years. We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead," Vincent said Thursday. …"What surprised us was how quickly it happened," Copland [head of the new global ice lab at the University of Ottawa] said. "It’s pretty alarming. "Even 10 years ago scientists assumed that when global warming changes occur that it would happen gradually so that perhaps we expected these ice shelves just to melt away quite slowly, but the big surprise is that for one they are going, but secondly that when they do go, they just go suddenly, it’s all at once, in a span of an hour."
Ancient ice shelf breaks free from Canadian Arctic
Quote:Rising seas, caused by global warming, have for the first time washed an inhabited island off the face of the Earth. The obliteration of Lohachara island, in India’s part of the Sundarbans where the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers empty into the Bay of Bengal, marks the moment when one of the most apocalyptic predictions of environmentalists and climate scientists has started coming true.As the seas continue to swell, they will swallow whole island nations, from the Maldives to the Marshall Islands, inundate vast areas of countries from Bangladesh to Egypt, and submerge parts of scores of coastal cities.
Just seen a paper published in Waterbirds 29(3): 243-257, 2006:
Avian Influenza: An Ecological and Evolutionary Perspective for Waterbird Scientists
by SABIR BIN MUZAFFAR,RONALD C. Y DENBERG AND IAN L. JONESAn excellent review; much of the info will be familiar to anyone who’s read several of the H5N1 and wild birds threads in this forum.
Says that wild birds widely blamed for being major reservoirs and vectors of HPAI – by both media and some scientists – yet with little actual evidence.
Good to see inclusion of evolutionary biology, citing Paul Ewald (see thread here on evolutionary biol). As the paper notes, this would predict evolution to low or non virulence in the wild – as wild birds have to fly long distances (“Dead Ducks Don’t Fly”) – and tendency for evolution to high virulence in poultry, especially in densely kept poultry.
These predictions borne out by observations.Includes suggestion that wild birds may face threats from HPAI circulating in poultry, especially where – say – captive waterfowl mingle with wild birds, as at some wetlands in China.
From FAO website; not sure this info will be trumpeted by chief vet Joseph Domenech, who seems a big proponent of big poultry farming (and ready blamer of wild birds for much to do with H5N1).
Quote:There is an assumption that because the majority of HPAI outbreaks have been reported in smallholder backyard flocks, these operations are inherently more risky than other types of poultry operations. This assumption was tested using published data from the 2004 HPAI epidemic and concurrent active surveillance programme in Thailand. … Estimation of the crude risk of HPAI infection in 2004 by flock type as defined by the Thai animal health authorities, showed that, for example, although layer flocks only constituted one percent of all flocks, they accounted for five percent of all registered infected flocks. Quail flocks showed the highest risk of detected HPAI infection, nearly reaching 1.6 percent. Against widely held expectations, backyard flocks showed the lowest risk of detected HPAI infection, 0.05 percent, only one quarter that of layer and broiler flocks. … it appears warranted to review the ‘bio-security’ of commercial operations. … Campylobacter spp, for example, similar to HPAI virus, move among avian host species, both domesticated and wild and in both directions. The inability of conventional bio-security measures to prevent the movement of Campylobacter in and out of modern broiler facilities was clearly demonstrated in a recent study of Campylobacter-free broiler flocks in the USA, housed in sanitized facilities, using standard bio-security measures, and fed Campylobacter-free feed and water. … The above example provides ample evidence for the potential of pathogens to move in and out of standard, reputedly bio-secure, commercial poultry facilities, even in developed settings. … Given the much stronger political influence of commercial interests vis-à-vis smallholder producers there is a clear danger that regulators will opt for ‘easy’ solutions, such as imposing measures to make subsistence poultry production ‘safer’, eg forced housing or confinement of poultry. …HPAI Risk, Bio-Security and Smallholder Adversity
The test is over now, with over half a day to spare. Good batting performance by England, but not enough to save the game.
Maybe Australia were so strong the’d have beaten any England side but – Earth to Duncan Fletcher – if you’re going to play in the Ashes, you really should pick your best players.
Adding to the errors resulting from self-delusion (and Fletcher being pig-headed, said Botham) I noted above:
Geraint Jones instead of Read – did ok as keeper, but missed stumping and went for a catch that wasn’t his in Aus second innings. Most lamentable, was supposedly in for his batting, and something re his temperamant – yet when big moments came, proved sadly wanting, bagging golden duck in this test (his last?).
Even before this series began, Geoff Boycott thought Duncan Fletcher past his best as England coach, time for new blood.
Proven correct; i’ve seen Brian Close said Fletcher should go.Another day of test misery for England.
They bowled well, tho some bad luck with decisions. Fielding not so hot; and again lack of slips – a “catch” went straight thro first slip position.
But Aussies batted superbly. Accruing major total, and then Gilchrist came in – “out of form” Gilchrist, mark you, and blasted the second fastest test century in history. Must have left England reeling as if on the ropes.
A declaration, and in remainder of play wicket down for England – tho seemed the third unlucky decision in a row for Strauss, albeit this time he was partly to blame, not playing shot to ball straight at stumps (even tho a tad high – given lbw).
Time for all England fans to pray for miracles; but even if had five or six Kevin Pietersens in the side, even a draw would look massively unlikely.Anything good from this match today, from an English viewpoint? Not much. Pietersen seems a law to himself: I’ve just seen article saying the Aussies don’t know how to bowl to him, as no plans have worked.
A minus this test: I’d seen Geoff Boycott wasn’t convinced re Collingwood versus fast bowling. Well, he’d doubted Collingwood as test player, yet he played well in India, scored that double hundred the previous test.
But yesterday and today, he was all at sea against pace, especially Clark: extra bounce at Perth bamboozling him so much it was hard to watch.Argh!
Another painfully bad day for England. Dismissed cheaply, despite sterling resistance from Pietersen and tail enders – including Harmison and Panesar, the latter especially remarkable given he was supposedly unable to bat for toffee.
Then, Aussies in – and wicket first ball (hooray! – I jumped up yelling so loud I woke my son in next room), after which they looked safe for most of the rest of the day’s play, threatening more walloping of this hapless English side tomorrow.
To fair extent, commentators can say “I told you so”.
Seems England indeed had too much self-delusion (on the part of Fletcher, others?) before the series even began:– Flintoff as captain seemed wrong choice to me; I’d favoured Strauss, figuring Flintoff should be allowed to be all-rounder who’s one of few men who can scare the Aussies. He has captained ok at times; but also some captaincy not so hot – few slip fielders both days this test, and England attitude as Ponting and Hayden batted: England team seemed to become largely just spectators, watching as this pair banged a few more nails in the coffin. Pietersen’s introduction to bowling right at the end at least added interest, with maybe a chance of wicket thro change. While bowling well, Flintoff has batted like a wuss – which surely means the real Freddie has yet to stand at the crease this series.
– Trescothick’s inclusion in tour party proved founded on over-optimism from him and selectors.
– Pre series preparations were said by many to be woefully inadequate. Now, seeing Harmison bowling more on form, after that hideous, hideous wide first ball in the first test – straight to first slip, and subsequent spraying, plus talk of nerves that as one commentator noted, made him unworthy of being in fast bowling lineage including Tyson, Trueman, Snow.
– Ashley Giles playing in place of Panesar in first two tests seems even stupider move now, especially as Panesar has not only taken wickets, but scored handy runs too (and was not out).Post edited by: Martin, at: 2006/12/15 14:55
post I’ve just made to webmasterworld thread, where poster asked above question: Joomla (1.0.xx) has problems with "itemids" left over from Mambo, resulting in duplicate URLs problem. These add to URLs; can get fresh itemid for every link you create to an item (page) – so can get www dot domain.blahblah.1, www dot domain.blahblah2 etc etc – all for same page. Also, can’t create individual meta tags for pages (tho some improvement here). There are some 3rd party fixes: I use OpenSEF for URLs (tho doesn’t work for all third party components, like my photo galleries); SEO Patch helps with meta tags and some other issues. Sadly, Joomla core team seem to be code gurus rather than website creators; when it comes to SEO issues, prone to downplaying their importance, and even explaining why various SEO features aren’t in basic Joomla. (I’ve just responded to one such post on J forum; found this thread after searching webworld, lest there might be nifty alternative: I looked at drupal some time ago, couldn’t get my head round the "nodes" etc and didn’t see site designs I liked.) But, with help such as OpenSEF, I think Joomla is very helpful for creating sites. The security issues seem ok for now, partly as Joomla now running with globals.php off, whatever that means (! – apparently should make it a good bit safer) Plenty of third party add-ons, tho development of these uneven, and at times become abandonware.
and another post to Joomla forum:
Andrew (Eddie – masterchief of Joomla): your post suggests Joomla 1.5 is a giant leap towards realising Joomla – by Coders, for Coders
Seems from your post it’s become some nebulous blob, that’s nothing without other things that third-party developers may or may not create (and, in turn, may at worst abandon).
As I posted above: URLs are fundamental to websites. So too are other aspects of “SEO”; and opinions on what works are far more aligned than you admit to.
Every website has URLs, so if you are to say people can use Joomla to create great websites (not that it’s any longer clear this is the aim of Joomla, what with all these wondrous possibilities for coders), should enable them to have great URLs. Directly; no need for hunting around for third-party components.
Basic aims of fully meeting Google guidelines, and meeting W3C recommendation from 1998, would surely seem straightforward.
– no frippery here, like banners, or “doing LDAP support and competing with Novell”, whatever that means (coders will understand, I know ).
Just the basics. Like coming up with a kit to build a house with walls, roof, windows, and solid foundations (aka, for websites, URLs).As you buzz with possibilities for this nouveau Joomla, hope you won’t forget about people drawn in by Joomla’s boasts of simplicity as website building software.
– people who just want to take Joomla, and get on with creating websites with minimal faffing about.
