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Thoughtful commentary on this issue from Dick Meyer of CBSNews.com, includes:
Quote:So what is it that makes some human brains dismiss or ignore global warming and others, far fewer, feel worried, threatened and called to action? Answering this question properly is probably far more important to future behavior and policy than endless arguments about how hot it will be in Cincinnati in 2077.Charles Darwin explains a lot of this. Global warming simply does not present the kinds of stimuli that the human nervous system evolved to respond to in order to survive threats from bears, lightning, rolling boulders and mean cavemen.
Daniel Gilbert, a Harvard psychologist who wrote “Stumbling on Happiness,” summed up evolutionary psychology’s perspective by noting how global warming lacked four traits “the human brain evolved to respond to.”
– recalls, to me, the reported behaviour of frogs w hot water: toss them into hot water, they jump out; heat it gradually, they stay till boil to death.
Taken time, but some admission of earlier stupidity from FAO, in article in Int Herald Tribune:
Quote:Most of the scattered bird flu outbreaks so far this year probably can be traced to illegal or improper trade in poultry, scientists believe. This probably includes recent outbreaks in Nigeria and Egypt as well as the large outbreak on a turkey farm in England.Last winter, wild migrating birds were deemed the primary culprit in the bird flu infestations that hopscotched across Europe and Africa. Dead swans and ducks were found in many countries, including Austria, France and Italy. [Yes, but were never tied to outbreaks in farms; indeed, as these birds died, the virus in the wild died with them.]
“Many of us at the outset underestimated the role of trade,” said Samuel Jutzi, director of Animal Production and Health at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. “The virus is behaving rather differently than last year — it’s rather enigmatic.” [No, just some folks struggle to comprehend as so immersed in the myth of the Tooth Fairy Bird – the “wild birds” that mysteriously spread H5N1.]
No outbreaks have been attributed to wild birds so far this season and not a single infected wild bird has been detected in Europe or Africa, despite a heightened surveillance system devised in the wake of the crisis last year.
…
In Africa and Asia, several countries have emerged this season as perpetual bird flu trouble spots, with constant cases in birds and some transmission to humans: Indonesia in Asia and Egypt and Nigeria in Africa. Trade may play a role in these countries as well, officials said.“There’s still some way to go in these three places,” Jutzi said. “In most places where we’ve seen outbreaks this year — like South Korea, the U.K., Thailand, Vietnam — the disease has re-emerged as we expected it would from time to time, but we’re confident that it has been brought under control.”
Illegal trade suspected in bird flu outbreaks
Illicit poultry import cited as chief culpritWorldwatch Institute isn’t a pioneer in saying that avian flu is a by-product of intensive meat production, tho is novel in saying (at same time) that another by-product is contribution to global warming. Should help with slop progress towards truth emerging, tho the myth of wild birds as ready vectors of H5N1 remains potent.
Quote:The growth of factory farms, their proximity to congested cities in the developing world, and the globalized poultry trade are all culprits behind the spread of avian flu, while livestock wastes damage the climate at a rate that surpasses emissions from cars and SUVs. These preliminary findings on avian flu and meat production, from the upcoming Worldwatch Institute report Vital Signs 2007–2008, were released today by research associate Danielle Nierenberg at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in San Francisco.At least 15 nations have restricted or banned free-range and backyard production of birds in an attempt to deal with avian flu on the ground, a move that may ultimately do more harm than good, according to Nierenberg. “Many of the world’s estimated 800 million urban farmers, who raise crops and animals for food, transportation, and income in back yards and on rooftops, have been targeted unfairly by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization,” she told participants at the AAAS event. “The socioeconomic importance of livestock to the world’s poor cannot be overstated.”
In 2006, global meat production increased 2.5 percent to an estimated 276 million tons. Sixty percent of this production occurred in the developing world, where half of all meat is now consumed thanks to rising incomes and exploding urbanization.
Rising demand for meat has helped drive livestock production away from rural, mixed-farming systems, where farmers raise a few different species on a grass diet, toward intensive periurban and urban production of pigs and chickens. Because of unregulated zoning and subsidies that encourage livestock production, chicken and pig “confined animal feedlot operations” (CAFOs), or factory farms, are moving closer to major urban areas in China, Bangladesh, India, and many countries in Africa.
Locating large chicken farms near cities might make economic sense, but the close concentration of the birds to densely populated areas can help foster and spread disease, Nierenberg says. In Laos, 42 of the 45 outbreaks of avian flu in the spring of 2004 occurred on factory farms, and 38 were in the capital, Vientiane (the few small farms in the city where outbreaks occurred were located close to commercial operations). In Nigeria, the first cases of avian flu were found in an industrial broiler operation; it spread from that 46,000-bird farm to 30 other factory farms, then quickly to neighboring backyard flocks, forcing already-poor farmers to kill their chickens.
Due mainly to the spread of avian flu and the culling of birds, global poultry output rose only slightly in 2006 to approximately 83 million tons, roughly a 1-percent decrease from the preceding year. Pig meat production, however, grew by 3 percent to 108 million tons, an increase likely due to shifting consumption in Asia from chicken to pork due to concerns about avian flu.
Avian flu has existed among backyard flocks for centuries, but has never been found to evolve there into highly pathogenic forms such as the deadly H5N1 virus. In CAFOs, in contrast, where animals are concentrated by the thousands, diseases erupt and spread quickly. Trade in poultry from these operations is a culprit in spreading the disease to smallholder farmers.
Experts suggest that rather than culling smaller, backyard flocks, the FAO, WHO, and other international agencies should focus the bulk of their avian flu prevention efforts on large poultry producers and on stopping disease outbreaks before they occur. The industrial food system not only threatens the livelihoods of small farmers, it potentially puts the world at risk for a potential flu pandemic. “While H5N1…may have been a product of the world’s factory farms, it’s small producers who have the most to lose,” says Nierenberg.
Intensive animal farming is not only deleterious to human health and economies; it is also responsible for a great deal of ecological destruction. The growing numbers of livestock are responsible for 18 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions (as measured in carbon dioxide equivalent). They account for 37 percent of emissions of methane, which has more than 20 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide, and 65 percent of emissions of nitrous oxide, another powerful greenhouse gas, most of which comes from manure.
Following Mike’s post, a dead Common Kestrel found in Kowloon confirmed to have H5N1.
Another raptor, which could feed on sick small songbirds.Then, news of two dead munias found in Kowloon, being tested for H5N1.
One a scaly-breasted: native to HK, but old rice fields not urban.
The other a chestnut munia: not native, known to be traded.Have recently been media reports re ideas for limiting bird trade and bird releases in Hong Kong – but no real action taken.
Post made to birdforum.net, by Mike Kilburn of HK Birdwatching Society:
Quote:Another interesting discovery in Hong Kong. A friend of mine has reviewed the data on H5N1-infected birds in Hong Kong and found that in the last 2 years all the birds infected are either commonly kept as cagebirds, commonly released by Buddhists to gain spiritual merit, or urban raptors and scavengers which would be likely to prey on sick or dead birds.Even more interesting . . .
Of the 10 H5N1-positive birds this year 8 (80%) were found within a 3km radius of the Mong Kok Bird Market and 7 (70%) within 1km!
Of the 15 cases last year the figures were 7 (47%)within 3 km and 4 (27%) within 1km.
During the same period not a single bird was discovered with H5N1among the thousands of birds tested at Mai Po.
Does this not suggest what the source might be to anyone?
Apparently not to our government’s health officials, vets or conservation staff
Interesting facts:
1. Mong Kok is one of the most densely populated places on the planet.
2. The bird market remains open and birds continue to arrive in Hong Kong
3.Our Health Minister has publicly spoken out in defence of the livelihoods of the bird sellers and has not closed the market. (priorities a la DEFRA?)
4. UN figures suggest around 1 million birds are traded through HK every year
5. A recent HK University study suggested an additional 600,000 were coming in annually from China without regulation, inspection or quarantine
6. Our Government CITES officers monitor a paltry 40,000 imported birds per year
7. Two Silver-eared Mesias – the bird which brought H5N1 to the UK last year were found with H5N1 just 200m from the Mong Kok Bird market earlier this month.just posted to birdforum:
dandare asks:
Quote:why DEFRA, MHS or whoever was responsible for previously warning mr Matthews about breaches in hygene, did not make sure that he immediately took action to rectify the problems?Might also ask why people like David Miliband and certain scientists (yes, step forward John Oxford) so quick to blame wild birds, yet curiously slow to recognise true cause.
In at least some cases, gotta be linked to reasons why Food and Agric Organisation’s been so ready to blame wild birds, and do so little public investigation into poultry trade inc smuggling, and feeding of chicken waste to fish (a technique the FAO has promoted; but quietly drawn back from).
Plus plenty ofie – Industrial poultry farming is big business. (see, eg, Grain report)
and you can pity the smallholders, sometimes forced to take birds indoors or even close because of threats from the Tooth Fairy Birds.Interesting, too, that New Scientist has persistently blamed wild birds for spreading H5N1 – a real crap recent article tried to finger them for the Suffolk case. (I’m among a few folk who’ve tried correspondence with author, but no sense penetrated; instead, conservationists villified.)
Just a coincidence, then, that New Sci publisher just happens to also publish Poultry World, Farmer’s Weekly.Graham: I recalled after my post, that Birdlife is partly constrained by politics.
My dad’s emailed that RSPB has been pretty quiet (apparently) re the H5N1 guff in UK. Here, too, surely some politics. Farming lobby not the best one for RSPB to upset.Here in HK, following Mike’s post [re kestrel being found dead with H5N1 in urban HK], comes news of two more dead munias found in urban Kowloon and being tested for H5N1. One a scaly-breasted – native, but a bird of old rice fields not the city; the other a chestnut munia, which not native to HK but is also traded.
Here, too, wild birds have been readily blamed – indeed, I believe HK was first place to blame wild birds for bringing H5N1 (based on woeful evidence: no certainly migratory birds involved; great majority of dead birds were in captive collections). Govt has closed Mai Po a couple of times, never mind no H5N1 there (fingers crossed!!).
Yet, tackling more powerful bird trade and Buddhist associations – to whom catching wild birds, transporting them in horrendous conditions, then releasing in utterly wrong places brings “merit” – proving too much... continued
Many moons ago, I queried Guan Yi re this and Poyang virus, and he replied they indeed lacked info on H5N1 in viruses in poultry in n China – even near Poyang, let alone Qinghai. potential Lanzhou link could explain much: but who is really investigating that?.
Received the following from Prof John Oxford – who as earlier pointed out, is UK flu expert who said some daft things on BBC website.
Oxford had said – on beeb: “We know that H5N1 is transmitted silently by migrating birds. The warm weather will have affected their migration patterns. So the chances are that is how it has reached Suffolk. … A very small bird could have made it through the ventilation system.”I sent him email; reply just in:
” Thank you for the 2 papers [Tooth Fairy Bird hardly a paper! other was Waterbirds paper]. Obviously it is still not clear how virus entered the sheds but we know that small birds such as sparrows can enter ventilation shafts and so could carry virus contaminated fomites.
Alternatively staff could break regulations and carry virus fomites into the unit. Influenza certainly killed terns in SA in the 60’s but still the evidence is that most of the subtypes are circulating between moving waterfowl as an enteric infection. This does not seem to affect migration. “I’ve responded: inc that if he is referring to sub-types of H5N1, the evidence is powerfully against wild birds carrying it (as real vector).
Seems the Prof is indeed somewhat isolated from reality in the glory of his ivory tower. Intellectual laziness here.
Sadly, he is hardly alone in evident confusion between natural bird flus and H5N1 – and figuring that what applies with natural wild bird flus must also apply to H5N1, never mind glaring evidence to the contrary. [How can anyone really believe that a virus known to have caused significant mortality in wild birds is “transmitted silently” by them? Surely a profoundly stupid notion.]On lighter note, just noticed on beeb site that Prof O also said:
“I don’t believe last year’s incident was overstated. It was a huge educational exercise: people know now that a dead swan is potentially dangerous.”
– something of Monty Python like hilarity here. A dead swan, washed up on a beach, and everyone supposed to leap about in fear. But, we know it’s potentially dangerous, don’t we; lots of people have been savaged by dead swans…I’ve just posted to aiwatch:
Hungary/UK just showing what we’ve known from the start: barking mad to suggest Qinghai is a wild bird form of the virus (esp given its impact at Qinghai – no way that was a strain that has evolved within birds; not unless you suspend disbelief in natural selection).
Futher evidence/proof re wild bird flus being mild:
Quote:Tests on nearly 75,000 wild ducks, gulls and other birds have turned up no sign of dangerous H5N1 avian influenza in the United States, a federal agency said on Thursday."The program was unprecedented in scope in terms of the range of species of birds sampled, which included waterfowl, shorebirds, gulls and terns, among others," Hon Ip of the U.S. Geological Survey said in an e-mail posted to an infectious-disease message group. "As of today, the testing of over 74,506 samples in wild birds from across the United States has been completed, and no highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been found," said Ip, who works at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin … The tests did turn up several samples of a low-pathogenic H5N1 virus, which is not particularly dangerous to either birds or to people, the USGS reports on its Web site
Canada has run similar surveys and found no dangerous bird flu. Birds infected with low-pathogenic H5N1 were found in states including Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maryland. This virus is apparently not dangerous to the birds, although Ip said he wanted to study infected birds to see if it has subtler effects on their ability to survive and migrate.
U.S. wild-bird survey finds no evidence of H5N1
Reports now of significant hygiene problems at the Bernard Matthews’ farm with the H5N1 outbreak – which now seems far less mysterious.
from BBC:
Quote:Meat firm Bernard Matthews was warned several times about hygiene lapses at its Suffolk turkey farm before bird flu broke out, an official report says.
Inspectors saw gulls feeding on waste left in uncovered bins and buildings with holes big enough for rats, the environment department, Defra, said.Its report concluded the most likely cause of the Holton outbreak two weeks ago was poultry imported from Hungary.
…The Defra investigation found that:
Pest control workers noted last month that large numbers of gulls attracted to uncovered bins full of trimmings from turkey breasts
This had also been a problem last year
Gulls were observed carrying turkey waste away and roosting on the roof of the turkey houses 500 metres away
There were holes in the houses that could have allowed birds or rodents in
Polythene bags containing residue of liquid waste could have blown around the site
Plastic-covered bales of wood shavings used as bedding were kept outside
Defra stressed that its investigation into the outbreak was still going on.
…
Defra said wild birds were unlikely to be the source of the outbreak – as H5N1 has not been found in such birds since August last year, and surveillance at the Holton plant failed to find any infected animals.Hygiene ‘lapses’ at bird flu site
The Times has report including:
Quote:This catalogue of biosecurity failures is in stark contrast to the glowing appraisal of the company by Bernard Matthews himself. Mr Matthews spoke this week about his pride in his business, which he said had always abided by EU rules.He denied that the company had acted evasively since the outbreak and said: “There has been absolutely no cover-up at our end. I’ve been upset about allegations that we may have withheld information. That is completely untrue.”
In a further statement the company welcomed the government report, saying it showed that the company had always acted legally.
Chris Huhne, the Liberal Democrat rural affairs spokesman, said: “This report high-lights serious biosecurity lapses at Bernard Matthews’ plant in Suffolk. Allowing wild birds to feed on raw poultry meat left in the open is highly irresponsible as it could lead to widespread contamination. The impression is still of an organisation in denial about the seriousness of events at its plant.
Matthews could be prosecuted over hygiene at bird flu factory
I think it’s worth noting this is a major poultry farm, in developed country with democracy and free press.
Consider what situations might be in various other countries.Even as the connection between the H5N1 in Hungary and Bernard Matthews’ Suffolk farm became stronger, daft Debbie managed to concoct an extremely silly "investigative" piece in New Scientist. (What’s the matter with the mag? A former editor’s peddling a book on cosmic rays causing global warming.) Here are a few extracts, as Deborah MacKenzie turns bumbling detective to track down the source of the infection – without even leaving the office!
Quote:Suspect: East Asia … Verdict: Extremely unlikely to have spread directly from here to the UKso far, so good
Quote:Suspect: Siberia Evidence: Dabbling ducks can carry H5N1 and stay healthy. [now get some guff re them having carried it on to Hungary and Britain: yes, Debbie’s a true Tooth Fairy Bird believer] … Verdict: LikelyDebbie’s being, shall we say, economical with the truth here. A very few examples known of ducks staying "healthy" with H5N1 (not dying, anyway). Many known to die of it, too – note the Hungary virus killed geese. None known to be effective vectors – only circumstantial evidence at best.
Quote:Suspect: Hungary … Verdict: Just because one happened after the other, it doesn’t mean the first one caused it.– there’s waffle from Debbie here, too. But, intriguing to see her dismiss the prime suspect so feebly.
Quote:Suspect: Scotland Evidence: Britain’s only previous case of H5N1 was a dead whooper swan in a harbour in Cellardyke, Scotland, in March 2006. Could the virus have persisted in British birds? No other birds with H5N1 have been found in Britain, … Verdict: Likely. The same wild British ducks that infected the Scottish swan may have infected the Bernard Matthews turkeys. A worker could merely have stepped in duck faeces then walked into a barn, say scientists.Now, this is barking mad. There was no evidence the swan was infected in Britain – quite the contrary, given the swan was the only case found in the wild (and, Debbie, H5N1 does make its presence known when in the wild – get dead birds, and utter fancy to suggest it might persist in ducks that – magically – don’t infect birds that would die of H5N1, including other ducks of the same species). Instead, was even possible this bird was among those fleeing the cold snap in eastern Europe, and died over the sea. A sad fate, esp as maybe died of disease that evolved in poultry farms. Notice the "scientists" at the end: no proper attribution. You might expect such an article on a bonkers blog, but in New Scientist? Oh dear. If you like twaddle, you can read the article at: UK bird flu outbreak – who dunnit? Perhaps also take a look at New Sci publisher Reed International’s page on its publication
Poultry World – which notes that
Quote:today it focuses on large scale production and processing of poultry and eggsother publications include Farmer’s Weekly. Hmmm…
Quote:All poultry farms in the Moscow region are under strict quarantine, as bird flu virus has been detected at two farmsteads, acting Moscow regional governor Alexei Panteleyev told Itar-Tass.He said the access to poultry farms will be limited, and local personnel will be under permanent medical surveillance.
All wild birds that may appear within the poultry farms’ range will be shot down, eh said.
From NOAA:
Quote:The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the highest for any January on record, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The most unusually warm conditions were in the mid- and high-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere.
…
During the past century, global surface temperatures have increased at a rate near 0.11 degrees F (0.06 degrees C) per decade, but the rate of increase has been three times larger since 1976, or 0.32 degrees F (0.18 degrees C) per decade, with some of the largest temperature increases occurring in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY HIGHEST ON RECORD, U.S. TEMPERATURE NEAR AVERAGE FOR MONTH
I’m in shorts and t-shirt as I write this – yet here in Hong Kong, February tends to be cool, even downright chilly. This winter, haven’t (so far) even needed heater; barely a need for warm clothes.
A few more dead birds with H5N1 in HK city – all Kowloon.
A blue magpie: resident species.
Two silver-eared mesias: not native to Hong Kong, though breeds in forests – population established from birds escaping/released from captivity. These local birds restricted to woods. As these two were real close to the main bird market, and distant from forest, points extremely strongly to bird market as the source.Quote:To avoid the outbreak of bird influenza in the Trans-Ural in
connection with the advancing spring season the government of region
affirmed the comprehensive plan of measures for the prevention of
drift, propagation and liquidation of the influenza of birds in the
territory of the Kurgan province, they reported on 14 February to
correspondent IA regnum in the press- service provincial government.
…
In the period of migration and nesting of wild bird provincial
services after it will organized observation. One additional
important task will become the inspection of the reservoirs, on which
dwells the game. The mobile forces created during March of the
present year will be aimed at frightening off of migratory bird in
order to prevent by it from being nested near the populated areas,
since the probability of the contact of wild bird with the relative
is precisely there great.The chicken manure is really hitting the fan in the UK.
Report in the Observer includes:
Quote:The scandal of how bird flu came to Britain has exposed the grubby world of the poultry trade – one that appears unhygienic and under-regulated.Last Thursday, The Observer revealed on its website that government officials had actually known for some days that the outbreak of the H5N1 virus, which led to the gassing of 160,000 turkeys in Suffolk, might have been caused by a shipment of meat brought over from Bernard Matthews’ Saga Food plant in Hungary to the company’s plant in Holton, Suffolk.
For reasons that still remain unclear, no one in the government made this information public even though it had been known to officials in the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since Monday. Neither Environment Secretary David Miliband nor agriculture ministers Ben Bradshaw and Lord Rooker mentioned it in parliamentary answers on the issue.
It was for this reason that a Whitehall source came to The Observer to reveal the link, and their unease over the secrecy.
The Times is also reporting on “scandal”:
Quote:THE government allowed Bernard Matthews to continue importing turkey meat from a bird flu-hit region of Hungary even though it suspected the area was the source of the British outbreak.A consignment of 20 tons of turkey was imported last Tuesday from a slaughterhouse in Hungary, three days after avian flu was confirmed at the Bernard Matthews plant in Suffolk.
Government inspectors knew in advance that Bernard Matthews intended to import the meat from a slaughterhouse only 30 miles away from the Hungarian outbreak – but did nothing to stop it.
Scandal over ‘bird flu’ imports
“the grubby world of the poultry trade” has been little exposed to date – tho readers of this forum have known much about it for some time; but now in the spotlight.
Hopefully, far less easy to readily blame “wild birds” for H5N1 spread.And, can maybe reduce panicked silliness, as just in the Philippines – where a sickly heron promptly killed and buried over bird flu fears.
Suspected bird-flu carrier alarms Sorsogon officials
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/02/11 09:22
Just posted this to birdforum (thread on current UK outbreak – in industrial turkey farm): (quoting a poster)":are you saying that … H5N1 has travelled to EC from it's source in China/Hong Kong in 1996/1997 solely via the movement of domestic birds?" Simple answer: Yes. And Hong Kong wasn't necessarily source. More re that yes: solely by the poultry industry. Including smuggling, dead birds, perhaps "silently" in vaccinated live birds, in poultry manure (within feed and as fertiliser), on dirty crates, on boots etc. FAO promoted practice of using chicken manure, bits of dead chickens as feed in fish farms helping sustain H5N1. (I've seen this happening in Indonesia; got photos and short article on my DocMartin site – don't view if it's dinnertime). So, also saying FAO has inadvertently helped in spread of H5N1. Re HK: known as place where H5N1 of concern identified (really, Guangong farm goose 1997). But I've seen re avian flu people reckoning there's connection (traced in DNA) with a bird flu in UK – Scotland in 1959: The price of cheap chicken is bird flu (well worth a read; includes
"The truly great ruse is that industrial poultry farms are the best way to produce chickens "). In a sense then, it's come home again. H5N1 into wild – it dies out pretty fast, largely as it kills most birds it infects. Typically, see a few individuals, even scavengers such as crows (and, as Mike mentioned, can be birds of prey) and that's it. Indeed saw waterbirds move west with H5N1 when eastern Europe became v cold late last winter, but then no evidence of further spread (you know of real evidence for this: tell us). Indeed, at one site, infected swans found on pond [Romania?], where other wild birds tested didn't have H5N1. – regular wild bird flus abound in infected waterbird faeces; H5N1 in lower amounts faeces, mainly in trachea. H5N1 suits those crowded poultry farms; it's evolved and continues to evolve in them. Also interesting it has better survival in warm water than regular wild bird flu: again, shift away from best suiting migratory northern breeding waterfowl; maybe better fit with ponds inc fishponds in southeast Asia? H5N1 (variants of concern, that is – H5N1 can be found rarely in wild waterbirds as low pathogenic flu) has evolved in poultry farms; in the kinds of farms where birds crammed in together. Whilst not shilly-shallying here: no wild bird species known to be able to survive and sustain and spread H5N1.
Good article in the New Statesman, by science ed of the times, on tendency for wild birds to be rapidly blamed for H5N1 outbreaks, then details suggesting there are other reasons.
Quote:[re Suffolk outbreak] for Matthews, and his fellow poultry industry moguls, whose factory farms dot East Anglia, there is a more important consolation. This is that both the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the public have been so easily persuaded that wild birds were the likely source of the outbreak.
Peter Bradnock, chief executive of the British Poultry Council, was quick to offer such an explanation when the outbreak was confirmed as the dreaded H5N1. “The most likely source is a wild bird,” he declared firmly. “Faeces on the concrete outside could have been walked in by a worker or it could have been deposited on the roof.”
It was a claim without the least shred of evidence. Confirmation of the H5N1 strain had come less than two hours earlier and the scientific investigation had yet to begin. But Bradnock’s suggestions ran far and wide in the national media.
…
how likely is it that an infected bird managed first to target a turkey farm and then to bypass all the defences set up to prevent such break-ins?
…
Those pushing the wild birds- as-vector thesis often cite the mass outbreak of H5N1 among geese in Qinghai Lake, northern China in 2005. The lake is on an intersection of the migratory routes of many different bird species, so a theory quickly emerged of how the virus was then carried westwards by migratory birds to Kazakhstan, Russia and even Turkey.
It was an attractively simple explanation, and widely repeated – but the truth was more complex. Qinghai Lake is also at the centre of a thriving intensive poultry and fish-farming industry. The industry is highly integrated – so much so that chicken faeces from the farms are fed to the fish. The farms around Qinghai trade birds and eggs with others in Lanzhou, the source of infected poultry that also caused an outbreak of H5N1 in Tibet, 1,500 miles away.
Similarly, when avian flu broke out in a village in Turkey in 2005, the poultry industry was quick to blame migratory birds. But once media interest faded, it emerged that a nearby factory farm had been importing birds from the Far East and trucking old chickens to local markets, an equally likely source.
The global trade in poultry feed is another wild card.
…Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/02/10 01:18
From the Times:
Quote:Bernard Matthews admitted for the first time today the possibility that it may have been responsible for an outbreak of lethal bird flu at one of its turkey farms in Suffolk – but said that its paperwork appeared to prove that it had done nothing wrong.Britain’s largest turkey producer is facing an inquiry after it emerged last night that it had imported 37 tonnes a week of partly-processed turkey meat from Hungary despite an outbreak there last month of the H5N1 strain of avian flu that has caused more than 100 deaths in Asia.
The company is also being investigated for breaking EU hygiene regulations by leaving processed poultry outside sheds at a food processing site on the farm, senior Whitehall sources say.
After analysis of the virus’s DNA showed that the strains from the UK outbreak in Holton and the Hungarian outbreak were probably identical, Sir David King, the Government’s Chief Scientist, today described the Hungarian hypothesis as the “most likely scenario”.
…
Peter Ainsworth, the Shadow Environment Secretary, called today on Defra – the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – to come forward and make a statement about the outbreak and subsequent investigation.Mr Ainsworth told BBC News 24: “I think the question for Government is where are the ministers? This is a matter of significant public concern and we have not had anything since Monday from Government ministers on the subject, certainly not about the questions now being raised about the links between Hungary and Suffolk.
“There is a degree of public anxiety about this and if I was a Defra minister, rather than leaving it to my officials to make explanations, I would want to come forward and say what my position was. There are also questions to be answered about what ministers knew and when, and if they had information last Monday, why didn’t they disclose that information?”
Hi Werner:
Many thanks for this info.
Just checked Miliband’s blog; see there are already comments asking why he’s blaming wild birds.
I’ve submitted this comment (may take a day before posted, if indeed posted):
Quote:Hi:Indeed surprising you blame wild birds, when no evidence whatsoever to substantiate this notion.
No wild bird species known to be able to survive and sustain and spread H5N1.
V hard to find a living wild bird with H5N1, which lethal to most creatures it infects; and Dead Ducks Don’t Fly, so aren’t best vectors of flu.
– hence my suggesting the species being blamed is the Tooth Fairy Bird.I live in Hong Kong – around epicentre of H5N1 (albeit of recent strains, which may have ancestor from UK a few decades ago).
No wild migratory ducks [don’t have geese] yet found here with H5N1. Yet if wild birds were good vectors, shouldn’t H5N1 be rife in our waterbirds?If H5N1 were in UK’s wild birds, there would be significant mortality. Or, maybe one Tooth Fairy Bird flew from Hungary to Suffolk, right iinto ventilation shaft of the turkey shed, then dematerialised?
If you have your secretary email my secretary (well, email me), I’d be happy to send you copy of paper from Waterbirds, with sound science re wild birds and H5N1.
Armed with science, maybe you can look for real culprit – like, err, a truck from BM’s operations in Hungary.Martin
Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/02/08 10:57
And yet, seems Oxford persists in blaming wild birds; just quoted in Times online, re small bird popping down ventilation shaft.
Waterfowl are likeliest carriersI’ve sent comment (who knows if will appear on site):
Quote:If wild birds in UK were infected with H5N1, we’d see significant mortality.No wild bird species shown to be able to survive and sustain and spread H5N1.
Though of course, “wild birds” are ready scapegoats – the Tooth Fairy Bird persists, and in John Oxford’s brain has now shrunk and popped down a ventilation shaft (caught a deadly disease in Hungary, flew unseen and without infecting others, all the way to Suffolk, where it flew right down the shaft, and dematerialised).
– but not all media reporting on wild birds only. Seen this info, re report on UK Channel 4 tv news:
Quote:They reported that the H part of the H5N1 in the Suffolk outbreak is very closely related to
the Hungarian H5N1 strain. (Info from UK Govt).Secondly, there have been lorries travelling from north-west Hungary carrying poultry meat
from SaGa factories (owned by Bernard Matthews) directly to the Suffolk farm.When the above was put to the Envt Minister, his reaction was say that the Hungarian
outbreak and the SaGa farm were a long way away from each other. [True, but the next news
item was Russia and Japan ban imports of UK poultry…perhaps SE to NW Hungary isn’t such a
long distance after all].The TV interviewer then asked the Minister why it was that “biosecure” farms were most at
risk, and quoted a US Govt paper that had come to this conclusion. The Minister had no
answer to that one…!Just sent following to UK flu expert Prof John Oxford’s email address:
Quote:Dear Professor Oxford: Seen BBC quoting you as saying wild bird likely carried H5N1 into the sealed shed in Suffolk. Hope you were misquoted; otherwise, seems you have woeful (very outdated?) lack of knowledge re H5N1 and wild birds. I’m birder/conservationist, based in Hong Kong; studied bird migration, and done much on H5N1 and wild birds, inc in 2003/04 when spread in Asia largely ignored in west. No wild bird species known to be able to survive and sustain and spread H5N1 (yes, quite different for natural wild bird flus – but we’re not talking about generic info of yesteryear here). I’m attaching article I wrote on the Tooth Fairy Bird: tongue in cheek, but inc some science. Also a strong paper, which includes evolutionary biology. (In Waterbirds; not attached here.) Hope these are of some interest. – not attaching here; but you can read New to Science – the Tooth Fairy Bird on this forum. Given Dead Ducks Don’t Fly (and dead swans won’t fit thro narrow entrances to BM’s turkey shed), how might H5N1 have travelled from Hungary to UK? As you’ll be aware, crates etc long known to carry bird flu: "In the United States in 1925, "People were shipping poultry to New York live bird markets. Then dirty, contaminated crates were being shipped back." This contributed to the spread of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak."Puzzling that you should blame wild birds so readily, and without any scientific basis. (Indeed, you are wonderfully vague in blaming "wild birds" – this is woeful for a prominent scientist.) Best regards, Dr Martin Williams
Also sent following to a tv news journalist:
Quote:It’s shocking and troubling that it’s new concept to you re H5N1 being spread by roads etc. Hopefully Richard can be huge help here. I’ve done much on H5N1 and wild birds – since around 2003/04, when spread in Asia blamed on migratory birds, but with nary a shred of decent evidence. This before the west seemed to notice the disease exists. Annoyed me that wild birds so readily blamed. yet had no voices of their own to speak out (while four poultry industry, officials not wanting to admit potential troubles, and industry people not liking ideas of trouble at t’farms). Did a map for this, showing timings etc were quite wrong. Crucially: H5N1 kills wild birds (most). Hard to carry a disease around when it kills you! ("Dead ducks don’t fly" I’ve noted – after email I received from a bird flu expert). Compare regular wild bird flus: mild, which not surprising given must be spread by birds that can fly, even migrate v long distances. No wild bird species shown capable of surviving and sustaining and spreading H5N1. Get vaguge blame of "wild birds"; I wrote attached on "Tooth Fairy Bird". Some tongue in cheek, but there’s science there. (I’ve phd in phys chem, but long been birding, inc migration studies in China). Also attaching a strong scientific paper – if you’ve time, could be big help; this posted to aiwatch group by Richard. Again, no use if can’t find wild bird that can sustain and spread h5n1. Grain report too a big help. Also a map someone sent me on Turkey outbreaks last year: cf highway and outbreaks. Declan Butler of Nature did H5N1 maps w Google Earth; inc one showing some apparent correlation w spread west last winter, with Trans-Siberian Railway. (A question: as it spread west, why was it near absent from much of Asia last winter? No wild migratory birds known infected, from Caspian Sea East – I live in Hong Kong; we’ve a major wetland reserve. Not one case of H5N1 at the reserve itself, despite disease being around here for over a decade, and tens of thousands of waterbirds migrating here each year). Poultry industry well knows even dirty crates etc can spread flu. In one case in US, carried on dirty crates for some distance (a few hundred miles). As Grain notes, money involved in industry huge. Try googling, too, re Joseph Domenech, chief vet of FAO, being annoyed by BBC asking questions – his reply along lines that if can’t farm this way, hard to feed people. Farming promoted by FAO includes feeding poultry manure and even bits of dead chickens to fish in fish farms. H5N1 can survive pretty well in water; rather better at surviving in warmer water than typical flus (after some evolution in warmer parts of Asia, where few wild ducks but many fish ponds?) There is link w farm ducks in Thailand, but even these can’t sustain h5n1 for long term it seems I’ve noticed Bob McCracken, a retired vet, has made noises re flu; readily blamed wild birds w zip decent science. Googled him, and strong links to poultry organisations. interesting, too, that H5N1 variants of concern maybe have ancestor in an h5n1 found a few decades ago in UK poultry (in turkeys if I recall rightly) – hmm, maybe in chicken in Scotland in 1959, tho H5N1 in UK again in 1991 – and that time, was in a turkey Bootiful, just bootiful MartinAs you’ve likely seen in the news, the IPCC’s fourth report is due out soon.
There’s a summary available online: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers
You can obtain at:
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/Reuters has an item with some of the main details:
FACTBOX-U.N. climate panel report
– makes for grim readingsee also the Independent:
Global warming: the final warning
According to yesterday’s UN report, the world will be a much hotter place by 2100. This will be the impact …
Starts with scenario of 2.4C rise in temp, for which impacts forecast include:Quote:Coral reefs almost extinctIn North America, a new dust-bowl brings deserts to life in the high plains states, centred on Nebraska, but also wipes out agriculture and
cattle ranching as sand dunes appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north.
Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas.
and continues from there; by maximum potential rise of 6.4C:
Quote:Most of life is exterminatedFrom the Guardian:
Quote:Scientists and economists have been offered $10,000 each by a lobby group funded by one of the world’s largest oil companies to undermine a major climate change report due to be published today.
Letters sent by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), an ExxonMobil-funded thinktank with close links to the Bush administration, offered the payments for articles that emphasise the shortcomings of a report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Travel expenses and additional payments were also offered.
…The AEI has received more than $1.6m from ExxonMobil and more than 20 of its staff have worked as consultants to the Bush administration. Lee Raymond, a former head of ExxonMobil, is the vice-chairman of AEI’s board of trustees.
The letters, sent to scientists in Britain, the US and elsewhere, attack the UN’s panel as “resistant to reasonable criticism and dissent and prone to summary conclusions that are poorly supported by the analytical work” and ask for essays that “thoughtfully explore the limitations of climate model outputs”.
Climate scientists described the move yesterday as an attempt to cast doubt over the “overwhelming scientific evidence” on global warming. “It’s a desperate attempt by an organisation who wants to distort science for their own political aims,” said David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
Quote:The Great Barrier Reef will become “functionally extinct” within decades at the current rate of global warming, while wilder weather is set to affect property values and drive up insurance bills in many Australian coastal communities.
…The Age has obtained a draft of the climate impacts report ahead of its release later this year. It includes a chapter on Australia, which warns that coral bleaching in the Barrier Reef is likely to become an annual occurrence by as early as 2030 due to warmer, more acidic seas.
It takes at least a decade for coral to start recovering from severe bleaching. But that may not happen, with average temperatures now expected to increase by about 3 degrees this century, raising the risk that areas of coral will die outright.
News recently in of dead peregrine with H5N1; also found in urban area – Tsuen Wan, by northwest Kowloon. (Was it captive, I wonder.)
Just asked to comment on article in S China Morning Post today, which began:
Quote:Mai Po Nature Reserve in the northwestern New Territories provides a “natural” early warning system for bird flu in Hong Kong, according to a visiting bird flu expert.Dirk Pfeiffer, professor of veterinary epidemiology at the University of London’s Royal Veterinary College, said the number of dead birds with H5N1 found this month was insignificant compared with the number of carcasses collected for testing and should not cause alarm.
Up to yesterday, only seven out of 1,600 birds collected had been found with H5N1 flu. This compared with January last year when 470 dead birds were collected, four of which tested positive.
For the whole of last year, 17 out of 10,000 birds collected had H5N1.
Although any “trigger point” marking the explosion of bird flu would be difficult to anticipate, Dr Pfeiffer said “to be quite frank, you would see an excess mortality in Mai Po before that actually occurs”. “Before you see large percentages in resident wild birds you would actually see something in Mai Po,” he said.
“You actually have a nice warning system there.”
Even if wild birds at Mai Po became infected, it would be “a long way” before this would spread from poultry to humans, and then among humans.
it concluded:
Quote:Meanwhile, television and radio announcements will be broadcast from next week advising people not to release birds into the wild, whether for Buddhist merit-making ceremonies or any other cultural or religious reason.“We have talked to Buddhist and Taoist associations and they agreed not to release birds,” said Thomas Sit Hon-chung, assistant director of the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department.
He said it would be useless to ban the practice because Hong Kong was a big area.
I’ve replied:
I saw that remark re Mai Po, and was rather surprised.
Seemed to me that made by an “expert” who had parachuted in, and had little knowledge re wild birds and H5N1.
Not sure why he didn’t stress that, despite extensive testing, not one bird from Mai Po has yet proven H5N1 positive.
This is strong evidence that waterbirds – the main reservoir for natural bird flus – do not sustain and spread H5N1 (chiefly as “dead ducks don’t fly”; HK yet to find H5N1 in an apparently healthy wild bird of any kind).
He might also have noted that the species and pattern involved in H5N1 in dead wild birds in HK this year does not fit what you’d expect were migratory – or even resident – wild birds the source. Four songbirds, plus two birds of prey and a crow – all species that are resident in Hong Kong; the songbirds all commonly released in rituals, the birds of prey mainly bird eaters (and I haven’t seen whether were signs either or both may have been captive birds that were dumped, as evidently case with one or two peregrines that tested positive here in the past), the crow a general feeder including scavenger.So, Mai Po would be early warning system were H5N1 actually spread by wild birds.
But as this isn’t the case, it’s the wrong place to look. Worldwide, too much attention has been diverted to looking at wild birds, rather than better scrutinising poultry trade, legal and – very importantly – illegal.
Spread isn’t from wild birds to poultry and on to humans.
It’s from poultry to poultry, poultry to wild birds, poultry to humans, poultry to cats, poultry to even tigers (Thai zoo).(Do I think there’s conspiracy here? Something like it, I’m afraid, yes.
Officials don’t want to admit failings. FAO’s chief vet Joseph Domenech has said something along lines of there being threats to food security if poultry industry is chiefly to blame. FAO had promoted fish farming with chicken manure used as feed: seems a potential reservoir for H5N1, as I saw in Indonesia:
https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/conservation/catfish-farm.html
I’ve read of China likewise using poultry manure as fish feed; even dead chickens can be used – as in my photos. HK doesn’t do this, I’m told by Lew Young, manager of Mai Po.
Poultry industry is massive – farms can have many thousands of birds. Much money involved. Attached of interest here, perhaps, albeit lengthy. [A report by GRAIN, on industrial poultry farming connection to H5N1])Govt’s APIs regarding Buddhist releases are, in this regard, late in being introduced. Even H5N1 in wild birds records early last year indicated wild bird trade/releases was key culprit (most records were urban; yet vast majority of our wild birds are in rural areas, with key concentrations at Mai Po and elsewhere in Deep Bay).
Perhaps, then, after readily blaming wild birds – from Kowloon Park and Penfold Park outbreaks some years ago, onwards – govt here is seeing a little sense.Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/31 13:47
Quote:Rising sea levels because of global warming stand to inundate around 2,000 islands in Indonesia by 2030, the country’s environment minister said Monday. The assessment by Rachmat Witoelar was the government’s bleakest yet of the effects of global warming on the Southeast Asian nation that is made up of some 18,000 islands, most of them unpopulated. … The environment minister also said rice shortages are forecast for next year because of wild weather blamed on climate change.Global warming may affect Indonesia isles
Oh dear, the fruitcakes strike again.
In Seattle, a guy has succeeded in stopping showing of An Inconvenient Truth to schoolkids inc his daughter (one of seven kids, notice: this guy has done his part to increase stresses on our planet):Quote:“No you will not teach or show that propagandist Al Gore video to my child, blaming our nation — the greatest nation ever to exist on this planet — for global warming,” Hardison wrote in an e-mail to the Federal Way School Board. The 43-year-old computer consultant is an evangelical Christian who says he believes that a warming planet is “one of the signs” of Jesus Christ’s imminent return for Judgment Day.Gore Film Sparks Parents’ Anger
Showing ‘Inconvenient Truth’ Would Require CounterpointBoston Globe had good editorial on this. Includes:
Quote:It will be enlightening to see what “alternate views” teachers who want to show the Gore movie come up with.and says re one teacher
Quote:Maybe she could find her balancing “data” in Michael Crichton’s novel “State of Fear.” It’s science fiction.Post edited by: Martin, at: 2007/01/29 09:40
One of the major problems involving oil palms in Borneo recently involved plans for huge (world’s largest) oil palm plantation in northern Kalimantan. Would involve clearing major areas of forest. I’ve spoken with Stuart Chapman, International Coordinator of WWF-originated Heart of Borneo project, and he told me the planned plantation area would involve substantial proportion of proposed Heart of Borneo. Helped by research by CIFOR (Center for International Forestry Research), plus people in oil palm industry, they worked on persuading Indonesian government that the area – in hills – was not suitable for oil palms. Happily, the Indonesian government halted the scheme – which WWF (and others) viewed as a sham, an attempt to fell a huge area for timber.
Are places already, I believe, where trees felled for oil palms, but no palms later planted; timber sold, and land left. So, shenanigans associated with this industry. WWF also showed Kalimantan has large areas that are already cleared, and suitable for oil palms: no need to fell more trees to make way for them. I’ve been through oil palm plantations in Sabah: just horrible monoculture; replaced major biodiversity, and in lowlands where there were the richest rainforest. Borneo now has only tiny fraction of its lowland forests remaining. I’ve heard too that it’s hard to remove oil palms – something re getting rid of roots being real hard.
See also: The Oil Palm Problem in Indonesia from Borneo Orangutan Survival Foundation.
