Martin W

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  • in reply to: Henry Niman: prophet of doom for the Internet #3814
    Martin W
    Participant

      Belatedly come across CurEvents.com thread – June last year – on Niman being banned for a week from Fluwiki; notes he had also been banned for a week from CurEvents. [forum closed]

      Niman banned again

      some entertaining posts; some batty stuff – as you'd expect – from Niman supporters, or "Nimatoads" as one person calls them. Best post, to me, is by supermoderator Clawdia, who replies to:

      Quote:
      How many of the niman acolytes do you think are actually Niman himself? Some of them have been active over at fluwiki blasting the moderators for their action and predicting the end of fluwiki. Yawn.

      – with post including:

      Quote:
      Enough of 'em have been at it so hard and heavy that the same thing occurred to me, Mo'! It seems that some would be unable to fail to notice the pattern that recurs – Niman comes in like god reincarnate Niman gets a bunch of people on the bandwagon Everyone who isn't on the bandwagon becomes a troll Niman repeats himself ad nauseum, with no hard data People question Niman, only to be told they are trolls When enough of the smart folk get sick and tired of the nonsense and his attitude, finally he gets either banned or temporarily suspended. Like a dog with its tail 'twixt its legs, he slinks off into the dark.

      in reply to: Henry Niman: prophet of doom for the Internet #3813
      Martin W
      Participant

        Just got to wondering about Niman and his promised "shock and awe" – which, like so many of Niman’s predictions, failed to materialise. Googled, and came across a post by joker called Nimon, from 31 March 2007: Shock and Awe has been postponed to April 23, 2007. Discussion at: www dot recombimaniacs dot com/ShockAndAweRescheduled/IMeanItThisTime.html [sadly, defunct]

        in reply to: Mysterious outbreak in sealed Suffolk shed, UK #4447
        Martin W
        Participant
          Quote:
          Sun 13 May 2007 Source: The Telegraph, London, published: 11:37pm BST 12 May 2007 [edited] Hungary admits link with UK bird flu outbreak


          Hungary has admitted for the first time that it may have been the source of the deadly flu virus that caused an outbreak at a British turkey farm. Bognar Lajos, Hungary’s deputy chief veterinary officer, conceded that the H5N1 virus could have gone undetected in a Hungarian turkey flock which was sent to slaughter. He said the meat might then have been exported by Bernard Matthews, the British poultry company, to its plant in Holton, Suffolk [England], before the virus infected birds there. Despite the admission, Mr. Lajos insisted that ultimately the blame for the British outbreak must lie with Bernard Matthews, which was criticised for shortfalls in its biosecurity in the wake of the scare. Mr. Lajos said: "It is possible that the virus was still in an incubation period in a flock and no symptoms would have been seen. Such a flock could have been sent to slaughter and the meat transported to the UK. The problem was not with Hungary though. The problem was Bernard Matthews and its biosecurity." Until now, officials in the east European country have flatly denied that the virus could have come from Hungary. The Csongrad region of the country, south-east of the capital Budapest, is the area in which 2 goose farms were hit by the virus in January [2007], weeks before the same strain infected a flock of Bernard Matthews turkeys. A report into the British outbreak by the Department of Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (Defra) concluded that the most plausible explanation was that the infection had been introduced to Britain through imported turkey meat from Hungary. Britain’s poultry industry is still paying the price of the bird flu outbreak. Research by the analysts Nielsen shows turkey sales have fallen by 29 percent over the past 3 months while sales of frozen turkeys are down 33 percent on last year [2006]. The industry is thought to have lost sales worth more than GBP 9.4 billion [USD 18 629 295 598]. Sales at Bernard Matthews have also dropped dramatically, although the company insists the decline has been halted. Last month, the multi-million pound company was paid GBP 600,000 [USD 1 189 199] in compensation by the Government for the 160,000 birds it had to cull as a result of the outbreak. In Hungary, however, the goose farmers affected by bird flu shortly before the British outbreak say they are still waiting for compensation. In a dingy shed on the Kolos Agro farm in Szentes-Lapisto, Csongrad, Garai Tibor, a farmer, described how just a few months ago it had been full of geese. Now, the only evidence of the 3335 birds that once inhabited his 3 55-yard huts is a small patch of feathers on the ground. "The outbreak has given us a bad name, but I am not angry about that," he said. "It was bad luck that the virus came to our farm. I am angry that we have been blamed for the English outbreak though when they seem to have brought the infection upon themselves. We did nothing wrong, while they had all these problems. How is it they have received all this money?" Mr. Tibor has been forced to lay off 3 workers from the local village and has lost more than 74 million Hungarian forints (GBP 200,000) [USD 403 735]. Under European legislation, member states can have half of any compensation given to farmers hit by bird flu outbreaks paid by the European Commission. A spokesman at the EC said it had received no application for compensation for either of the farms hit by the outbreak. However, Mr Lajos insisted that between them, the two farms had received about 100 million forints [USD 544 993] from his government. Szekely Zsolt, who owns the other farm in nearby Derekegyhaz, refused to comment. A spokesman for Bernard Matthews said: "None of the investigations to date has been conclusive about the causes of the outbreak." (Byline: Richard Gray in Budapest, Sunday Telegraph) — Communicated by: Mary Marshall, ProMED Correspondent [It has long been known that delays in paying compensation have a very negative impact on persuading farmers to report suspect outbreaks of disease in their animals. Without prompt reporting, even the best government service will be severely hampered. And then come the temptations to pre-emptively slaughter healthy in-contact stock, and all that that implies. – Mod.MHJ]

          in reply to: Major Asian wetland – in Korea – looks doomed #4188
          Martin W
          Participant

            An ecological horror story is indeed unfolding at Saemangeum.

            Quote:
            At least two bird species face extinction while other wildlife, including shellfish, fish and plants, is being harmed by the closure, one year ago, of a 33-mile seawall to drain Saemangeum Wetland in South Korea.

            Algae are blooming in the dank puddles that remain and thick scum lines the estuary’s few creeks and channels. Vast stretches of shellfish beds, and thousands of plants, lie dead on the parched mud now covering most of the site.

            The tidal range of the 155-square mile wetland has dropped from seven metres to just 17 centimetres and all but 30 of the 400 boats that fished estuary waters have been grounded as a result.

            Yet there are no firm plans to compensate for this wildlife and economic tragedy and conservationists are appealing to the UK government to help save what remains of the site.

            The Saemangeum project was hatched to create paddy fields but there is insufficient clean water for irrigation. ‘Now they are talking about building a golf course, a huge casino or even a Formula 1 race track,’ says the RSPB’s Sarah Dawkins, who is currently working as a volunteer to help monitor the impact on birds of the seawall.

            ‘Saemangeum really was the jewel in the crown yet all around me the place is dying.’

            A chink of light still glimmers, however, for the birds whose fate seems almost sealed. Sluice gates have been built into the Saemangeum sea-wall, which if kept open would save at least part of the wetland.

            Birds Korea, a conservation group in South Korea, wants the UK government and the EU, together with governments elsewhere, to offer support to South Korean authorities in conserving and managing Saemangeum.

            in reply to: Global warming threatens biodiversity #4369
            Martin W
            Participant
              Quote:
              A warmer climate disrupts the biological clocks of migratory species including bats, dolphins, antelopes or turtles, said Lahcen el Kabiri, deputy head of the UN’s Bonn-based Convention on Migratory Species. "They are the most visible warning signs — indicators signalling the dramatic changes to our ecosystems caused in part by climate change," he told delegates on the opening day of a May 7-18 UN meeting searching for new ways to offset warming. Many creatures are mistiming their migrations, or failing to bother as changes between seasons become less clear. The shifts make them vulnerable to heatwaves, droughts or cold snaps. Among birds, for instance, cranes are starting to spend the winter in Germany rather than fly south to Spain or Portugal. "A harsh winter could decimate the population," he said. … "Climate change affects all migratory species," El Kabiri, a Moroccan, told Reuters. He said that whales were sometimes in the wrong place to feed on fish and plankton which were thriving closer to the poles because of warmer oceans.

              Migratory Birds, Whales Confused by Warming – UN

              in reply to: Bird flu hits France!!! (humour and h5n1) #3887
              Martin W
              Participant

                Just in! (from Werner, who has followed bird flu issue closely)

                in reply to: Mysterious outbreak in sealed Suffolk shed, UK #4446
                Martin W
                Participant

                  DEFRA report on the outbreak concludes:

                  Quote:
                  Our conclusion is that infection was most likely introduced to GB via the importation of turkey meat from Hungary.

                  – so it seems the outbreak was self-inflected (by Bernard Matthews).

                  Yet, BM to receive almost £600,000 in compensation. :ohmy:

                  in reply to: I don’t believe wild birds are spreading h5n1 #3762
                  Martin W
                  Participant

                    New paper out from China, mentions:

                    Quote:
                    EWHC [H5N1 type] was isolated from a Eurasian widgeon in a large lake [in central China] where many widgeons were found dead.

                    – maybe first report re these dead “widgeons” (maybe other species too, I’d guess). At time when wild birds being readily blamed for spreading H5N1. Yet here’s further evidence that wild birds not asymptomatic carriers, for as we all know, Dead Ducks Don’t Fly.

                    Avian Influenza (H5N1) Virus in Waterfowl and Chickens, Central China

                    in reply to: Bird flu hits France!!! (humour and h5n1) #3886
                    Martin W
                    Participant

                      Here was a spoof movie poster for The The Atomic Cafe – a documentary presenting early atomic bomb era info clips, using black humour (says Wikipedia, anyway)

                      [link no longer working]

                      in reply to: I don’t believe wild birds are spreading h5n1 #3761
                      Martin W
                      Participant

                        Review appearing in ornithological journal Ibis, now online. Includes:

                        Quote:
                        The phenology and geographical pattern of expansion of the HPAI H5N1 does not correspond to the pattern of bird migration. First, it took several months for the virus to spread from China to the Balkans. Migratory birds such as ducks and waders travel several hundred kilometres in a single day. If migrating birds mainly dispersed the virus, the virus should also spread by large jumps of thousands of kilometres, throughout the migratory stopping places of Asia and Africa. The observed expansion has rather been by a progressive expansion from isolated outbreaks, the geographical pattern of which corresponds well with major routes and patterns of human commerce.

                        Secondly, from July 2005 onwards, if migratory birds were a main agent of dispersal, one would have expected massive mortalities of wild birds, both in the breeding areas and along all migratory routes, as bird populations would have been encountering this virus for the first time. However, only sporadic cases were observed. The cases in Western Europe after the cold spell on the Black Sea showed that the virus can spread through infected wild birds travelling short distances (Feare 2007), but no evidence for long-distance transmission during seasonal migration has yet been found (Feare 2007). Analysing 52 introduction events into countries, Kilpatrick et al. (2006) concluded that both poultry and the trade in wild birds represent a larger risk than migratory birds for the introduction of HPAI H5N1 to the Americas. In summary, although it remains possible that a migratory bird can spread the virus HPAI H5N1 and contaminate poultry, the evidence overwhelmingly supports the hypothesis that human movements of domestic poultry have been the main agent of global dispersal of the virus to date.

                        The occurrence of an outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Suffolk, England, in February 2007 fits this wider pattern. In spite of the absence of evidence that migratory birds play a major role in the dispersal of the virus, many statements to this effect were made by international institutions, non-governmental organizations and media, and a debate between epidemiologists and ecologists followed (e.g. Normile 2005, 2006a, 2006b, Fergus et al. 2006). However, from autumn 2005 it was largely presented as fact that migratory birds were the main potential agent of global dispersal (e.g. Derenne & Bricaire 2005, FAO 2005), even as evidence emerged in Asia that spread was mainly mediated by human activities (Melville & Shortridge 2004). OIE reports (e.g. OIE 2005, 2006a, 2006c) indicated that the source of outbreaks was contact with migratory birds, but offered no evidence to support this assertion and contributed to the inappropriate emphasis on migratory birds, thus reducing the probability that alternative mechanisms such as poultry movements were fully considered in individual cases. In spite of the declarations of the Nigerian Minister of Agriculture on the probability of the introduction of the virus via the poultry trade (Euro Surveillance 2006), the FAO continued to implicate migratory birds, thus denying problems associated with commercial exchanges. The natural globalization of the exchanges of migratory birds seemed to hide the globalization – without strict health control – of the exchanges of poultry as the accepted mechanism for disease spread. By May 2006, an international conference in Rome had recognized that the virus was mainly spread through the poultry trade, both legal and illegal, but OIE and FAO media releases (FAO 2006b, OIE 2006b) continued to focus on the possible contribution of spread by wild birds.

                        Given that a key part of the remit of the FAO is to develop international agricultural trade, reticence to accept that this trade is the main agent of global dispersal of HPAI H5N1 is perhaps unsurprising.

                        Recent expansion of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: a critical review[/url] also in Ibis, a Viewpoint article by Professor Chris Feare, includes:

                        Quote:
                        The most recent outbreak in western Europe, at a turkey farm in Suffolk, UK, is alluded to by Gauthier-Clerc et al. but evidence that has become available since their review was written illustrates many of the problems of H5N1 reporting. The outbreak was first blamed on wild birds, which veterinary investigators reported at the site and this received high press prominence. …

                        The 10 February 2007 issue of New Scientist magazine included a map of Suffolk showing the outbreak location and highlighting the proximity of the RSPB's Minsmere ‘wildfowl’ reserve. …

                        The preliminary Defra report on the outbreak commented on site biosecurity including workers changing footwear on entering the turkey sheds. Biosecurity in parts of southeast Asia involves removing all clothing, walking through a hot shower, and then putting on a complete set of clean clothing inside the premises.

                        in reply to: Wild birds scared n killed thro H5N1 flu fears #4088
                        Martin W
                        Participant
                          Quote:
                          The team comprising Yong Choon Loy, Jason Yong and Richard Lee shot 226 crows,
                          the highest number this season in the area under MPS jurisdiction.

                          Jason and his team, who take part in crow shoots as a hobby, also participated
                          in the competition organised by the Subang Jaya Municipal Council last year.

                          By wiping out these noisy birds, we ensure clean surroundings, said Jason.

                          A total of 1,119 crows were shot by 83 shooters during the three-month season
                          that started in January.

                          Each shooter received RM2 for each crow killed.

                          MPS president Zainal Abidin Azim, who presented certificates to the shooters,
                          encouraged more shooters to come forward to help the municipality keep the crow
                          population in check.

                          We organised this competition as crows in Pakistan were discovered to be
                          carrying the H5N1 strain of Bird Flu virus, Zainal Abidin said.

                          He added that MPS started crow shoots in 2002 and had awarded certificates to
                          those involved in the operations.

                          1,119 birds killed in crow-shooting contest

                          in reply to: Wild birds scared n killed thro H5N1 flu fears #4087
                          Martin W
                          Participant

                            Commentary from Russia, where it seems there’s way more madness re H5N1 than actual disease.

                            Quote:
                            MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Tatyana Sinitsyna) – Many migratory birds
                            are already heading for their summer homes in Russia. By the eternal laws
                            of nature, birds are flying in large numbers to their nesting-places for
                            the sake of raising a new generation.

                            Today, however, few people romanticize the spring return of birds because
                            they have been discredited by the rise of avian flu.

                            Though ornithologists say the “guilt” of birds has not been proven, fears
                            of a new “plague” seem to be overriding common sense. People are ready to
                            declare a real war on wild birds. Why not? A machine-gun was once designed
                            in the United States especially to shoot migratory passenger pigeons, and
                            in 1899 this species of bird was successfully exterminated.

                            As spring arrives, there are more and more calls from various levels of
                            Russian society to exterminate migratory birds. Alexei Zimenko, the
                            director of the Wild Nature Center, describes such a method of preventing
                            avian flu as “shameful, absurd and unacceptable.” First, it would pose a
                            serious threat to endangered species. Second, according to Zimenko, the
                            massive shooting of birds would only encourage an epidemic because killed
                            and wounded birds spread the infection. Third, such measures are very
                            expensive: for example, the work of scare-away teams in the Novosibirsk
                            Region alone costs 300 million rubles a year.

                            Flocks of birds fly mostly at night, and during the day they stop at their
                            customary migratory places, often near water. It is here that they should
                            be targeted, according to the recommendations. In the instructions it sent
                            to all regional committees, the Russian Agency for Health and Consumer
                            Rights underlines: “Take measures to prevent the nesting of migratory
                            birds near reservoirs and at places of possible contact with poultry.” The
                            local authorities will decide which methods to use.

                            The same is recommended in a letter from the Russian Veterinary
                            Supervision Agency to local authorities: “In population centers situated
                            near the shores of reservoirs where migratory birds have nesting-places,
                            organize measures to scare away birds to a distance of 3 to 10 kilometers
                            from the population centers.” The letter contains an important piece of
                            advice: “use all acoustic and other methods.” The latter is a clear
                            reference to firearms.

                            “Besides the fact that the shooting of birds is inhumane and
                            anti-environmental, it is also pointless. Birds are very mobile, and there
                            are so many of them that you cannot exterminate them even if you give
                            every Russian a gun,” says Yevgeny Kuznetsov, a leading expert at the
                            Center for the Protection of Wild Animals’ Health.

                            He believes that any attempt to scare away, not to mention shoot, wild
                            birds will only force them to search for new places to feed, rest and
                            nest, meaning they will fly to unusual places.

                            The problem of avian flu is so serious that it has become the focus of
                            attention not only of scientists and experts but political parties as
                            well. The ruling United Russia party has held a conference on the matter.
                            “Avian flu has existed for millions of years. At present, no type of
                            animal flu is dangerous for humans,” Professor Yevgeny Voronin, the rector
                            of the Skryabin Moscow Veterinary and Biotechnology Academy, told the
                            conference. “I can drink a medicine bottle of the H5N1 virus and nothing
                            will happen to me. Students at our academy study virology and work with
                            the live avian flu virus. I have never heard that anyone has suffered.”

                            The tone of another speaker, Academician Dmitry Lvov, the director of the
                            Ivanovsky Virology Research Institute, was different. He believes the
                            possibility of a pandemic on all continents is real. According to Lvov,
                            the potential of the H5N1 virus is greater than that of the Spanish
                            influenza that claimed the lives of 50 million people at the beginning of
                            the 20th century. “For the deadly virus to spread from human to human,
                            only two biochemical changes are needed. If this happens, it will be a
                            disaster,” he warned.

                            The scientist added that it was impossible to counter the process of
                            evolution in ecosystems. “It is impossible to prevent a pandemic or an
                            epizootic [an epidemic affecting animals] because it is a disaster like a
                            hurricane or an earthquake. But it is possible and necessary to reduce the
                            possible effects of such disasters through forecasting and prevention,” he
                            stressed. Among the obligatory steps to be taken against avian flu, he
                            named the vaccination of household poultry, reliable protection measures
                            to isolate poultry farms, the vaccination of poultry farm personnel, and
                            wide-ranging disinfection measures.

                            Has Russia declared war on birds?

                            in reply to: Global warming forecasts: disasters, diseases #4350
                            Martin W
                            Participant

                              Even as idiots argue that global warming’s a swindle and a scam, the science gets scarier.

                              Quote:
                              A new global warming study predicts that many current climate zones will vanish entirely by the year 2100, replaced by climates unknown in today’s world.

                              Global climate models for the next century forecast the complete disappearance of several existing climates currently found in tropical highlands and regions near the poles, while large swaths of the tropics and subtropics may develop new climates unlike anything seen today. Driven by worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, the climate modeling study uses average summer and winter temperatures and precipitation levels to map the differences between climate zones today and in the year 2100 and anticipates large climate changes worldwide.
                              ,,,
                              The most severely affected parts of the world span both heavily populated regions, including the southeastern United States, southeastern Asia and parts of Africa, and known hotspots of biodiversity, such as the Amazonian rainforest and African and South American mountain ranges. The changes predicted by the new study anticipate dramatic ecological shifts, with unknown but probably extensive effects on large segments of the Earth’s population.

                              “All policy and management strategies are based on current conditions,” Williams says, adding that regions with the largest changes are where these strategies and models are most likely to fail. “How do you make predictions for these areas of the unknown?”

                              The underlying effect is clear, Williams says, noting, “More carbon dioxide in the air means more risk of entirely new climates or climates disappearing.”

                              In general, the models show that existing climate zones will shift toward higher latitudes and higher elevations, squeezing out the climates at the extremes — tropical mountaintops and the poles — and leaving room for unfamiliar climes around the equator.

                              Global warming forecasts creation, loss of climate zones

                              in reply to: Wild birds scared n killed thro H5N1 flu fears #4086
                              Martin W
                              Participant

                                Seeems several Russian regions have adopted a Shoot the Scapegoats policy. KALININGRAD. March 20 (Interfax) – Specialists of the Federal Veterinarian and Phytosanitary Control Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) have begun shooting wild birds in the Kaliningrad region to stop the spread of bird flu. "Rosselkhoznadzor specialists are acting in line with a relevant order that sets the order for the examination of places of birds’ mass gathering. A planned shooting is under way, blood samples and dead birds are taken to laboratories for examination," Yevgeny Safronov, Rosselkhoznadzor’s press secretary, told Interfax on Tuesday. "First analyses showed that there are no signs of bird flu in the region," he said, adding that special mobile groups are involved in the shooting of wild birds. No bird flu cases were registered in the Kaliningrad region in 2006, Safronov said.

                                Wild bird being shot to fight bird flu in Kaliningrad region

                                in reply to: I don’t believe wild birds are spreading h5n1 #3760
                                Martin W
                                Participant

                                  Recent Promed post included:

                                  Quote:
                                  “Movements of birds and avian influenza from Asia into Alaska.” Kevin
                                  Winkler et. al.

                                  Abstract:
                                  Asian-origin avian influenza (AI) viruses are spread in part by
                                  migratory birds. In Alaska, diverse avian hosts from Asia and the
                                  Americas overlap in a region of intercontinental avifaunal mixing.
                                  This region is hypothesized to be a zone of Asia-to-America virus
                                  transfer because birds there can mingle in waters contaminated by
                                  wild-bird-origin AI viruses. Our 7 years of AI virus surveillance
                                  among waterfowl and shorebirds in this region (1998-2004; 8254
                                  samples) showed remarkably low infection rates (0.06 percent) [There
                                  were only 5 positive samples, and none were H5. – Mod.MHJ]. Our
                                  findings suggest an Arctic effect on viral ecology caused perhaps by
                                  low ecosystem productivity and low host densities relative to
                                  available water. Combined with a synthesis of avian diversity and
                                  abundance, intercontinental host movements, and genetic analyses, our
                                  results suggest that the risk and probably the frequency of
                                  intercontinental virus transfer in this region are relatively low.

                                  full article at:
                                  http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/4/06-1072.htm

                                  in reply to: Global warming threatens biodiversity #4368
                                  Martin W
                                  Participant

                                    from the Independent:

                                    Quote:
                                    Global warming is a “weapon of mass destruction”, one of Britain and the world’s top climatologists said yesterday.

                                    Sir John Houghton, former director-general of the Meteorological Office and chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, entered the debate over the seriousness of climate change after two meteorologists were reported as saying that “some scientists have been guilty of overplaying the available evidence”. He said he agreed with the Government’s chief scientist, Professor Sir David King, that it posed a greater threat than terrorism.

                                    Sir John says he agrees “we must not exaggerate the evidence, and if anything must underplay it”. But he adds the evidence of serious climate change is now “very substantial”.

                                    Sceptics charge that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change exaggerates the dangers. But Sir John, as one of the founders of the panel, says that it had “deliberately underestimated the problem”.

                                    Global warming is a ‘weapon of mass destruction’
                                    Climate experts hit back after being accused of overstating the problem

                                    – “weapon of mass destruction” analogy maybe a bit unfortunate after Iraq and the missing WMDs. But, warming a real problem.

                                    in reply to: Global warming forecasts: disasters, diseases #4349
                                    Martin W
                                    Participant

                                      from the Independent:

                                      Quote:
                                      Global warming over the past quarter century has led to a fall in the yield of some of the most important food crops in the world, according to one of the first scientific studies of how climate change has affected cereal crops.

                                      Rising temperatures between 1981 and 2002 caused aloss in production of wheat, corn and barley that amounted in effect to some 40 million tons a year – equivalent to annual losses of some £2.6bn.

                                      Although these numbers are not large compared to the world-wide production of cereal crops, scientists warned that the findings demonstrated how climate change was already having an impact on the global production of staple foods. “Most people tend to think of climate change as something that will impact the future, but this study shows that warming over the past two decades has already had real effects on global food supply,” said Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution in Stanford, California.

                                      World’s most important crops hit by global warming effects

                                      for abstract of paper, and link to full paper (for which need subscription):
                                      Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming
                                      Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions.

                                      in reply to: Birds inc magpie robin in Hong Kong w H5N1 #4050
                                      Martin W
                                      Participant

                                        Press release from Hong Kong Birdwatching Society includes:

                                        Quote:
                                        Echoing sentiments expressed by leading virologists Professor John Oxford from the UK and the Dr Robert Webster from the United States (appendix A), Hong Kong-based microbiologist Professor Malik Peiris said that the 500,000+ wild bird trade into Hong was the most likely source of the H5N1-infected wild birds that were being repeatedly detected in Hong Kong:

                                        “Recognizing that the natural habitats of many of these infected birds is not urban, and that the Chestnut Munia in particular no longer occurs in the wild in Hong Kong in any habitat, there is no other logical explanation for the presence of H5N1 in birds found in these highly urbanized locations. Given that such infected birds pose a threat to the poultry industry and to human health, more stringent and effective regulation or an outright ban on the trade of wild birds seems a sensible precaution,” said Professor Peiris.

                                        The Hong Kong Bird Watching Society (HKBWS) called on the Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Dr York Chow and the Centre for Health Protection to recognize the wild bird trade and religious releases as an important source of H5N1 introduction into Hong Kong, and to close this route for human infection by banning the trade.

                                        “Government data shows that the most feared case for a new pandemic – H5N1 – is being found weekly in Mong Kok, Sham Shui Po and Happy Valley – some of the most densely populated areas on Earth,” said Mike Kilburn, Vice Chairman of HKBWS. “Munias and mesias – non-migratory birds commonly sold for religious release, have been clearly identified as carriers of the virus.”

                                        You can read the release – and see map with “wild bird” cases in Hong Kong last year and this – at:
                                        Bird Trade Bringing H5N1 to Mong Kok, Sham Shui Po & Happy Valley
                                        Global H5N1 Experts & Hong Kong Bird Watching Society Calls for Ban

                                        in reply to: Time to put farming in the dock re h5n1 spread #3912
                                        Martin W
                                        Participant

                                          this just in:

                                          GRAIN News Release
                                          14 March 2007

                                          Bird flu: a bonanza for ‘Big Chicken’
                                          http://www.grain.org/articles/?id=22

                                          A new report by GRAIN shows how bird flu is being used to advance the
                                          interests of powerful agribusiness corporations.

                                          One year ago, when governments were fixated on getting surveillance
                                          teams into wetlands and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
                                          was waving the finger of blame at Asia and Africa’s abundant household
                                          poultry, GRAIN and other groups pointed out that large-scale
                                          industrial poultry farms and the global poultry trade were spreading
                                          bird flu — not wild birds nor backyard flocks. Today, this has become
                                          common knowledge, even though little is being done to control the
                                          industrial source of the problem, and governments still shamelessly
                                          roll out the wild bird theory to dodge responsibility
                                          .

                                          However a more sinister dimension of the bird flu crisis is becoming
                                          more apparent. Today, more than ever, agribusiness is using the
                                          calamity to consolidate its farm-to-factory-to-supermarket food chains
                                          as the small-scale competition is criminalised. Meanwhile
                                          pharmaceutical companies mine the goodwill invested in the global
                                          database of flu samples to profit from desperate, captive vaccine
                                          markets. At the centre of this story are two UN agencies (FAO and the
                                          WHO) using their international stature, access to governments and
                                          control over the flow of donor funds to advance corporate agendas.

                                          Quote from the report: “Agribusiness clearly suffers, at least in the
                                          short-term, when bird flu breaks out. But, whether in Indonesia or
                                          Russia, India or Egypt, governments and the various international
                                          agencies have quickly come to the industry’s defence, and have even
                                          managed to turn the bird flu crisis into an opportunity for the larger
                                          corporations to consolidate their control over the long term. These
                                          corporations, from CP in Thailand to Tyson in the US, have worked hard
                                          to ensure that this happens.”

                                          ==============================================

                                          Read more in “Bird flu: a bonanza for ‘Big Chicken'”, available both
                                          in PDF and as a web page:

                                          In English: http://www.grain.org/articles/?id=22

                                          In Bahasa Indonesia: http://www.grain.org/m/?id=117

                                          The report will soon be available in French and Spanish.

                                          For background information see also the GRAIN “Bird flu resource page”
                                          here: http://www.grain.org/go/birdflu

                                          in reply to: Birds inc magpie robin in Hong Kong w H5N1 #4049
                                          Martin W
                                          Participant

                                            Here’s a letter I sent S China Morning Post; published a couple of days ago.

                                            Dear Sir:

                                            Suppose you were suddenly grabbed from your everyday life, shoved in a cage crammed with other humans, transported and sold in squalid conditions in which many others die and you could become diseased, and you were then moved again, and dumped in an area far from your home. And the only reason for all this was that the person releasing you could gain “karma”. Would you be grateful?

                                            That’s akin to the situation faced by hundreds of thousands of wild birds that are traded in Hong Kong each year. Their plight has been highlighted lately as some of these birds – and local birds that have eaten them – have been found dead in the city, and tests have revealed they had H5N1.

                                            The Buddhist practice of releasing captive birds and other animals as a way of doing good may have been worthwhile originally. But today, for the most part, it’s clearly a horrible practice – involving far more suffering and death than if these releases did not happen at all.

                                            Despite concerns regarding H5N1, the government is loathe to legislate against the practice. Yet Buddhist associations have key roles to play as well. They can surely advise Hong Kong Buddhists that if they wish to help wild animals, there are many far better ways to do so than releasing birds – or even fish – into environments that may be totally unsuitable. If wildlife truly benefits, the Buddhists helping them really will merit karma.

                                            in reply to: Birds inc magpie robin in Hong Kong w H5N1 #4048
                                            Martin W
                                            Participant

                                              Robert Webster’s been a key blamer of wild birds for migrating about spreading H5N1 (i’ve emailed him at times).

                                              Now, tho, reportedly seeing some daylight re HK records of dead munias etc with H5N1.

                                              Quote:
                                              HONG KONG (Reuters) – Leading virologists urged governments on Saturday to curb the trade of wild birds as they can spread the H5N1 bird flu virus, which has made a comeback in many parts of the world in recent months.

                                              The warning comes as Hong Kong confirmed a scaly-breasted munia found dead in late February in the densely-populated district of Sham Shui Po had tested positive for the H5N1.

                                              It was the 13th wild bird to have been found dead with the virus in Hong Kong since the start of this year.

                                              “The munia is not a migratory bird. Again, it points to humans and the trade in movement of birds that are responsible for spreading this virus,” said virologist Robert Webster from St Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis.

                                              Small, wild birds are bought and sold across borders and released for religious purposes in many parts of the world. The practice is particularly strong in Hong Kong, which has a huge population of Buddhists and Taoists. The city imports the small birds mostly from mainland China.

                                              still manages to get in mention of migrating birds spreading it about, at the end – and his Trojan Ducks theory (might apply in domestic ducks, but could also be the case that vaccinated poultry harbour h5n1.
                                              But, progress it seems.
                                              Bird flu experts urge halt to wild bird trade

                                              in reply to: HK Now TV will or will not show Cricket World Cup? #4457
                                              Martin W
                                              Participant

                                                This in email from Now TV late yesterday:

                                                Quote:
                                                We announced today that ESPN / Star Sports Cricket Channel will be
                                                enhanced by the addition of ICC Cricket World Cup 2007. Please kindly
                                                refer to our service website for the latest updates on the program
                                                schedules.

                                                Hooray!
                                                – and, may hope that they were hoping to show the world cup all along, not prompted by protests and newspaper items.

                                                Martin W
                                                Participant

                                                  God knows what’s wrong with American right-wing ranters, who continue to confuse science with politics.

                                                  Classic stuff on Free Market News, by Noel Gibeson, Print and Radio Commentator (err, not a scientist of any kind then? ‘course not – science is for lefties; right-wingers don’t need clean air, clean water, safe environments: heck, perhaps it’s true and they are all Cylons).
                                                  Includes:

                                                  Quote:
                                                  Now we hear that the debate is over and the case is closed; their other god has ruled – the United Nations – has decided that global warming is ’caused’ by Man so there is no need for any further discussion; it is time for action. Surprise! This type of socialist-collectivist mentality could not be further from either the truth or from reality.

                                                  GLOBAL WARMING: A CONVENIENT LIE

                                                  I’ve just submitted comment:

                                                  Bet you Free Marketeers also figure gravity’s some kind of pinko-liberal plot, along with those nasty evolution conspiracies, plate tectonics and so on.
                                                  All cooked up by wishy washy doomsaying gloom-mongers who aim to stop Free Marketeers floating about at will.

                                                  I write from Hong Kong – toastiest February I’ve known in 20 years here.
                                                  But this is global warming : means that world temps on the rise, and best fit is with anthropogenic warming, rest merely hand waving, seized on and spread by greedy liars and obfuscators.

                                                  You can deny warming like latter-day Canutes willing the tide to stop coming in (or religious berks adhering to notions of heavens revolving around earth), but your idiocy shouldn’t be messing with my future, my kid’s future.

                                                  in reply to: New CDC Study #4456
                                                  Martin W
                                                  Participant

                                                    I’ve just submitted comment for authors:

                                                    Ever heard of natural selection?

                                                    Read quickly thro this paper – can’t see mention of evolutionary biology, which explains why wild birds aren’t important vectors for H5N1 poultry flu.
                                                    Without evolutionary biology, this all seems vacuous; tho must have been fun having funds to fly about counting ducks.

                                                    [Climate change maybe also relevant re WNV: haven’t noticed this either]

                                                    in reply to: Tooth Fairy Bird reaches Kuwait #4455
                                                    Martin W
                                                    Participant

                                                      Yes, some considerations re poultry industry surely needed: re safety, animal welfare; whether people really want to eat factory farmed poultry, with crackdowns on free range even tho this is surely healthier.

                                                      Just seen a post with info from a birder (in Middle East/Kowait it seems), inc:

                                                      Apparently the affected falcons were in the zoo, which has been
                                                      closed. Such birds and hunting falcons in general here probably are fed only or mostly freshly dead, uncooked birds, either poultry or shot or siezed (by the falcons themselves) wild birds.

                                                      in reply to: Palm oil and rainforests #4422
                                                      Martin W
                                                      Participant

                                                        Email from Ecological Internet: Let the President know the world expects Indonesia to keep the Environment Minister’s promise to tackle the root causes of rainforest fires and peatland drainage

                                                        Indonesia’s rainforests contain 60% of all the tropical peat in the world. Such rainforests on peat soils are one of the world’s most important carbon sinks and play a vital role in helping to regulate the global climate. They are also very rich in biodiversity and a refuge for species like orang-utans. Rainforest peatlands are being destroyed fast; primarily by palm oil, timber, and paper and pulp companies. The Indonesian government has endorsed a massive biofuel program which foresees an increase in oil palm plantations to eventually over 26 million hectares. Far from reducing climate change emissions, it will rapidly release up to 50 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere. This is the equivalent of over 6 years of global fossil fuel emissions and could well make the generally accepted 2 degree C of warming that is considered "dangerous" unavoidable. A recent study has found that one ton of biodiesel made from palm oil grown on Southeast Asia’s peatlands is linked to the emission of 10-30 tons of carbon dioxide. Shockingly, this is 2- 8 times as much carbon released as in production of a ton of fossil fuel diesel. Please write to the Indonesian government now to express your grave concerns over biofuel expansion plans which threaten to further destroy rainforests and peatlands, and to thus dangerously accelerate global warming.

                                                        in reply to: Tooth Fairy Bird reaches Kuwait #4453
                                                        Martin W
                                                        Participant

                                                          Hi Werner:

                                                          I’ve written of wild birds being victims not vectors.

                                                          Poultry are vectors of H5N1 – it evolved in them.
                                                          But yes, they are victims too.
                                                          We’ve taken a bird of Asian forests, and now pack it by the thousand and hundreds of thousands in hideous sheds, for a surely horrible life. (Anyone selling eggs with pictures from factory farms on them? – instead, get bucolic rural scences more likely.) Turkeys hardly having fun in Bernard Matthews’ farms, either.
                                                          Then, when get H5N1, mass killings, with not all birds dispatched (read of some chickens getting up and walking from under piles of corpses).

                                                          Sad; arising from our own, human overpopulation.

                                                          Adding insult to injury: free range farms are having problems because of the mythical wild birds spreading H5N1 (the Tooth Fairy Bird): worse for smallholders, for poultry, and for consumers.
                                                          But, good for industrial poultry farmers and their supporters and those who benefit from them.

                                                          Martin

                                                          in reply to: Tooth Fairy Bird reaches Kuwait #4450
                                                          Martin W
                                                          Participant

                                                            I’d never heard of chickens for Chechens!

                                                            Seen re possible reports of industrial farms kind of dumping (at low prices?) birds that maybe they know to be sick, to backyard farms. Then, when H5N1 infections found, blame wild birds.

                                                            in reply to: Tooth Fairy Bird reaches Kuwait #4448
                                                            Martin W
                                                            Participant

                                                              Hi Werner:

                                                              Indeed, clinics not normal resting places for migratory birds.

                                                              Falconry is very popular in the Middle East – falcons caught/traded from many places (even Mongolia/n China I believe).

                                                              I’d expect, then, that the clinic treats falconers’ birds.
                                                              Now H5N1 has reached poultry in Kuwait, maybe also to some of the chickens or whatever the falcons are normally fed on.

                                                              (Rather as in HK – at least one dead peregrine with H5N1 apparently from captivity [illegal]; I’d reckoned that likely fed on infected poultry.)

                                                              Martin

                                                              in reply to: Sceptics on global warming a baby-boomer, yuppie thing etc #4264
                                                              Martin W
                                                              Participant

                                                                Think Progress has item mentioning Dick Cheney has said:

                                                                Quote:
                                                                I think clearly we’re in a period of warming. Where there does not appear to be a consensus, where it begins to break down, is the extent to which that’s part of a normal cycle versus the extent to which it’s caused by man, greenhouse gases, et cetera.

                                                                – as TP notes:

                                                                Quote:
                                                                Cheney added later in the interview, “I don’t know. I’m not a scientist.” But he appears comfortable enough in his knowledge to suggest that the scientists are all wrong.

                                                                Cheney: ‘There Does Not Appear To Be A Consensus’ That Global Warming Is ‘Caused By Man’

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