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Hi Les:
Many thanks for your post; most welcome to have such informed comment.
Yes, Mongolia lake is puzzling. I’ve seen more from Wildlife Conservation Soc team who investigated this, and they too aren’t certain what happened, tho wild bird flying some distance with h5n1 looks most plausible reason. (Mentioned that a US outbreak of HPAI [in poultry] was traced to empty poultry crates being transported some distance – surely not what’s happened here, but does indicate odd things can happen.)
Timings indeed odd. I’d figure that whooper swans and bar-headed geese would be sedentary (breeding) by time the 2 swans and 1 goose died.
So, maybe they were infected by virus that had lingered for a few weeks, maybe passed between a few birds.
I read of ducks shedding for up to 17 days; but also that Qinghai variant (which may/may not be near identical to the one in Mongolia/Russia) was more lethal than h5n1 a Chinese team had previously tested – killing 8 of 8 chickens in 20 hours, so perhaps harder to have ducks survive and shed.
There is some summer tourism to Erkhel; might outbreak be linked to this? No evidence; but just about plausible.
Yet again, more info needed.
But, h5n1 evidently hasn’t spread well in wild birds here; seems more like other known outbreaks in wild, except Qinghai.Qinghai rather odd; so many birds reportedly killed; and dearth of info afterwards, that I’ve seen anyway (how many birds survived?, say; not possible that some over-zealous officials opted for cull [tho later in outbreak, came reports that cull dediced against]?
Thanks, too, for comments re vaccinations. I’d drawn my info from New Scientist, and some info on FAO site (FAO perhaps rather reluctantly agreed to more widespread vaccinations for h5n1?).
Seems vaccination should be used sparingly, in cases as you note; but China (especially – I believe HK poultry, say, now vaccinated) now uses extensively.
This, to me, could explain how the h5n1 traced back to 1996 domestic goose sample from Guangdong has stayed with us so long; other HPAI outbreaks, as H7N7 that killed [vet] in Netherlands evidently eradicated by slaughtering infected poultry. HK seemed successful at likewise slaughtering poultry to eradicate h5n1 in 1997, but it clearly survived elsewhere, inc S China [as you’ll well know; this info might be useful here lest others come across this thread].Martin
Yes indeed, for America should be prepared for the day the nation’s mice come under serious attack by diseases carried in bioterrorists’ pigs.
Not only does Niman like to cry "Pandemic!" every few weeks – stirring those delicious rushes of anticipations among his followers [a worldwide disaster is about to happen, and we are the first to know, all Hail to the Niman] – but lately he has become oddly obsessed with propounding his notion wild birds are now spreading H5N1.
And this despite him knowing far, far, far, far less about wild birds than I know about viruses. (Great Shearwater could carry h5n1 worldwide; birds breeding in west Siberia migrate to North America, then down to South America, for goodness sake!!) And despite wild birds being blamed but shown innocent for spreading H5N1 in east/southeast Asia during 2003/04 (see my Dead Ducks Don't Fly article – link on left); also despite scientists who look closely at the issue, even after the Russia outbreaks, and concluding there is no solid evidence wild birds are the vectors. Instead, it again appears that legal and illegal trade within the poultry industry (and fighting cocks – Kazakhstan reportedly has cock-fighting – fighting cocks have been blamed for some h5n1 poultry flu spread in Thailand) are the real vectors, with wild birds again becoming victims.
Niman's view is not merely some quirky curiosity, like some chap roaming the streets wearing a sandwich board proclaiming "The End of the World is Nigh". But, if widely and wrongly accepted, it can be dangerous. Dangerous to wild birds – for culls just might be possible (Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin threatened a cull when openbill storks caught H5N1 and died [he didn't cull, only a handful of storks were infected, and died]; the Philippines has a plan for culling all wild birds across a fairly large area should a proportion be found to have bird flu). Further, making governments edgy about and people scared of wild birds can have economic consequences, such as for bird reserves. Hong Kong's Mai Po Marshes reserve was closed by the Hong Kong government for a month during a bird flu scare in spring 2004; no bird flu was found there, nor were any wild birds found sick, but WWF Hong Kong suffered a severe economic loss. Suppose the Niman-inspired scare continues into late autumn, winter in Europe – even if reserves aren't closed, a major drop in visitors and revenue seems possible. Already, we have Dutch farmers in surely expensive measures to guard against h5n1 infections by wild birds. Not only may this be unnecessary; might also deflect attention from the real vector – trade (including illegal; and from areas hit by poultry, surely can buy at real low prices; chickens, going cheep).
As news of bird deaths at Qinghai Lake, northwest China, first emerged in early May, Niman was quick to figure H5N1 was to blame (he was right this time; but if you figure Everything is Bird Flu for mysterious deaths, ou might be right sometimes). Yet for some quirky reason, Niman wrote, with no apparent support, "Migrating birds transport new H5N1 sequences each season." He waffled about geese in southeast China that may have died of H5N1. Bird Flu Killing Geese in Qinghai Province in China?. By 21 May, when H5N1 was confirmed in dead birds at Qinghai, Niman speculated H5N1 in Qinghai China Imported from India? – based on Bar-headed Geese, the species reported dead, migrating to Qinghai from northern India, and arriving May and June (almost correct, tho seems a bit late). Though H5N1 had not been reported in India, nor had there been unusual deaths of poultry or wild birds there, Niman figured India was the source of the H5N1 (based on three poultry flu workers reportedly testing positive for H5N1 in 2002). [A paper in Nature later appeared, revealing that the H5N1 at Qinghai was like a strain actually found in southeast China this spring.)
This commentary closed with pure Nimanism: "Clearly the WHO is not taking the 2005 H5N1 pandemic seriously. They are simply putting out fires in the most obvious areas and making plans to bury the bodies.":woohoo: Three days later, as news of more bird deaths at Qinghai emerged, Niman wrote "Frequently, H5N1 infections in ducks and geese are asymtomatic, so infected birds can transmit H5N1 throughout the two flyways, which cover virtually all of Asia." Here, he seemed oblivious to the massive contradiction: if there are so many asymptomatic infections, how is it that so many birds were dying at Qinghai? [The asymptomatic cases were farm ducks in Vietnam]. this allowed a Nimanistic leap to comment on Qinghai Nature Reserve – Overlapping Bird Flu Flyways – and even to intimate some human deaths in Sri Lanka were due to H5N1. 17 July saw Niman again peering into his crystal ball, where H5N1 genes were a-swirling, and he foresaw "a catastrophic pandemic will expand, as birds migrate away from Qinghi Lake and summer nesting sites and return to Europe, India, and southeast Asia to spread a variety of new and old H5N1 strains capable of causing lethal infections in humans and a variety of other species."
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07170502/H5N1_Catastrophic_Pandemic.html Top that, Nostradamus!! 👿 No matter, apparently, that birds nesting at Qinghai Lake don't winter in Europe; nor [that I know of] in Southeast Asia – South Asia is their key winter site, plus sw China. Nor did Niman really seem troubled by the fact there has been no known case of wild bird to human transmission of H5N1. Add to which, the fact the birds known to have H5N1 at Qinghai were, err, dead. On 28 July, as he pontificated about Rapid Evolution in Qinghai Lake Migratory Bird Flu H5N1, Niman forecast that the "recombinants" [new virus variants] "will soon arrive in areas to the east, south, and west, of the summer location." This fit a 22 July post Niman made to the Agonist.org disease forum, after he saw post noting re snow in Qinghai area:
Quote:If it is snowing at Qinghai Lake, migration south may begin early (like now)A couple of days later, as there were reports of illnesses and deaths in pig farmers in Sichuan, China, Niman was quick to figure H5N1 could be responsible (he later was concerned Ebola was mixing with H5N1 – but to most other people, the problem was actually bacteria). In Fatalities in Sichuan Linked to H5N1 Bird Flu Migration? Niman pontificated:
Quote:As birds at Qingahi Lake and nature reserves in Russia begin to migrate to the south, west, and east, there is concern that such a migration might lead to a catastrophic spread of H5N1. Human deaths in the adjacent province of Sichuan may indicate that such spread has already begun.So, what happened after Niman's predictions? What happened was: there were outbreaks to the north of Qinghai, ie not to the south, nor (strictly) to any of the directions Niman forecast. And, to the world's satisfaction, the Sichuan disease was shown to be not bird flu, but a bacterium, Streptococcus sui. Anyway, Niman isn't one to worry about his predictions turning out completely wrong. He noticed there was Confirmed H5 Bird Flu in Novosibirsk Russia, Here, he made Nimanist leaps of logic, via H5N1 outbreaks in northern Xinjiang, to say "Most of the reported migratory bird deaths at Qinghai lake were also geese, so the deaths of 200 geese in Russia strongly suggest a relationship and further spread of H5N1 by migratory birds." Without explanation, this is a very curious statement – and Niman did not later note that (as was the case) most birds reportedly dying from H5N1 in Russia were chickens, which by Nimanist logic should sugget the virus was spread by, err, chickens.
On 11 August, as outbreaks spread in Russia, in http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08110501/H5N1_Meningitis_Tomsk.html, Niman cited the very hazy notion that "The sequence of H5N1 in the Novosibirsk is said to be similar to H5N1 in Vietnam, but somewhat different. That description matches the sequences fro H5N1 isolated at Qinghai Lake." This, of course, is for real scientists a long way from confirming the Nobosibirsk virus came from Qinghai; but in Nimanism, it's sufficient. Also very bizarre here: "Since many birds that nest or rest at Qinghai Lake go on to summer at Chany Lake." Err, no – no birds at all that nest at Qinghai will go on to summer at Chany Lake. They breed during summer; and after that, in autumn, they fly south. Simple really.
On 18 August, commenting re H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Confirmed in Erkhel Lake Mongolia, Niman for some reason announced:
Quote:The ability to cause fatal infections is dependent on several conditions, including the level of H5N1 in feces and dilution factors. In nature reserves with large lakes, the feces are diluted by the volume of water. However, in smaller lakes and ponds near farms, the concentration of virus is higher.– which seems utterly at variance with the massive die-off reported at (huge) Qinghai Lake.
Quote:Migratory birds are clearly spreading the H5N1 wild bird flu.announced Niman, without – as ever – giving any info on just which migratory birds he meant, or why he arrived at such a conclusion. (What species' migration route and timing fits the reported outbreaks? Niman leaves us guessing, as he hasn't a clue himself.) Niman has developed great fondness for what he calls his H5N1 wild bird flu map.
Quite why he calls it "wild bird flu" is unclear, since it covers outbreaks of H5N1 variant that originated from poultry farms – so is very obviously H5N1 Poultry Farm Flu. Looking at it, we are supposed to se e the map shows that H5N1 spread from Qinghai to Russia and nearby is by wild birds – yet Niman makes a glaring omission: no wild bird migration routes and timings appear. But of course they don't; for no wild bird migration routes and migration timings fit Niman's map. Niman's map is, instead, like an ink blot test, or one of those pieces of toast with the Virgin Mary's face on that are auctioned on eBay: without being told what it means in advance, you really wouldn't know. (Try looking at the map, with me telling you it means an outbreak following introcuction from poultry farms in Qinghai, then transport to areas north of China, and further transport. Any problems fitting such a story to the map? No, of course not, for the map proves nothing, except showing H5N1 has been spreading.)
Although Niman has long propounded his story of wild birds spreading H5N1, despite evidence to the contrary, his massive ignorance of wild birds seems to have only increased – so much so that on 9 September he wrote in More H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Confirmation in Tomsk Region In Russia:
Quote:Northern Siberia birds migrate to North America from the east and the west. Birds in the west migrate across Greenland into northeast Canada, while those in the east migrate across the Bering Straight into Alaska. Birds from both areas then migrate south into Canada, the United States, and points south, including South America.(Come, come Henry – calm down after all these commentaries, and tell us just which species has individuals that migrate from west Siberia to north America and then to South America? Come on, some specifics for a change please. Further,tell us about some species that migrate from east Siberia to the Americas – which are they? Rather more likely; but few n far between that I know of).
Today comes an FAO news release, saying Wild birds expected to spread bird flu virus further; Countries along migratory routes of wild birds should be on alert – emergency preparedness essential Well, couldn’t let that one go by, so I’ve just fired off an email: Dear Mr Northoff: I am startled by Joseph Domenech of the FAO announcing that wild birds are expected to further spread bird flu.
This seems at odds with some previous FAO information, such as suggesting the main spread of h5n1 is by "highways and byways", also with [February I think – AVIbull028.pdf] information that likewise suggests it’s trade within farming – legal and illegal – that is spreading bird flu.
I have followed bird flu with intense interest – I’m a birder, based in Hong Kong, so I’ve previously seen suggestions wild birds were h5n1 vectors, notably during 2003/04 spread, when a closer look at actual situations revealed this was not the case. See, for instance, an article I did, Dead Ducks Don’t Fly: https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/birdflu/birdfluintro.html Similar arguments appear to prevail here: the outbreaks don’t fit patterns and timings of bird movements (especially if Qinghai is considered the source of the outbreaks in Russia and Mongolia – they occurred from July, at a time when Qinghai birds are sedentary). But, if trade is fingered for the spread – fits nicely, (New Scientist likewise noted that the pattern of spread in Russia fits movement along roads, rail.)
As well as the New Scientist article, I’ve seen several papers/articles by scientists, who have implicated the poultry trade as the main means of spread – for instance, in the Lancet, Nature (paper by virologists based in Hong Kong), US Geol Survey/Fish and Wildlife [pasted below]; a paper on origin and evolution of H5N1. These were based partly on evidence as I cited above: when wild birds found with H5N1, they’ve been sick or dying. And, though parts of se Asia are poor, with little testing, there is extensive testing of migratory birds in places including Japan and Hong Kong (in HK last year, over 7000 apparently healthy birds tested – all h5n1 free) Officials can seem quick to blame wild birds – from Hong Kong around 2002 onwards [in Hong Kong, outbreaks virtually restricted to ornamental waterfowl – tens of thousands of wild waterbirds nearby unaffected], then on thro 2003/04 outbreaks, to China and Russia recently. This may be true; but also, I suspect, driven to a fair extent at least by birds making easy scapegoats; admitting troubles within farming is never easy.
Beyond officials, which scientists have blamed wild birds for being bird flu vectors? (And which of these have actually looked at the issue in any detail?) There is one almost-scientist who does so, the very voluble, former surgery instructor and non-flu expert [says WHO’s head of influenza], Henry Niman. I trust he is not your key source of the notion wild birds are spreading h5n1, for he is perhaps not the best source around: Henry Niman: Prophet of Doom for the Internet Age – https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/component/option,com_simpleboard/Itemid,137/func,view/id,64/catid,7/ I look forward to your reply with interest. – perhaps you could cc your response to Hon S. Yip of the USGS, author of article quoted below, who notes: "Reports of the role of wild birds as the cause of new bird flu outbreaks occur almost daily, but at the present time, there is little evidence available to support such statements." [much as per previous info from FAO] Yours sincerely, Dr Martin Williams AVIAN INFLUENZA – ASIA (10): MIGRATORY BIRDS ***********************************************
A ProMED-mail post ProMED-mail is a program of the International Society for Infectious Diseases Sponsored in part by Elsevier, publisher of International Journal of Microbial Agents Date: Wed 24 Aug 2005 From: Hon Ip Dead birds don’t migrate (re. ProMED 20050822.2475)
I am in complete agreement with the anonymous ProMED contributor for the request for more information on the role of H5N1 and wild birds in the evolving situation in Asia [see commentary to posting 20050822.2475]. Reports of the role of wild birds as the cause of new bird flu outbreaks occur almost daily, but at the present time, there is little evidence available to support such statements. So making that kind of material available to ProMED readers would be greatly appreciated. One of the few pieces of published data that addresses the question of H5N1 isolation from wild birds is from the work of colleagues in Hong Kong. H5N1 was isolated from clinically healthy birds in Penfold Park during the 2002 pathogenic [influenza] outbreak in Hong Kong SAR. In addition to the isolation of H5N1 from sick and dying birds at the park, the virus was isolated from apparently healthy birds, include 2 Canada geese (_Branta canadensis_), one bar-headed goose (_Anser indicus_) and 2 other geese of unspecified Anser species (Ellis et al., 2004. Avian Pathol 33:492-505). [Initially, the SAR authorities reported to the OIE that the affected population in the Penford Park included resident waterfowl (ducks, geese, and swans) and wild little egrets (_Egretta garzetta_); no reference was made to tests in clinically unaffected birds. See 20030126.0236. – Mod.AS]It should be noted that, although the Canada goose and the bar-headed goose are migratory species, these birds were in a captive situation, and so the question of whether they are capable of migration remains unanswered. A further point illustrating the lack of data on the role of wild birds in HPAI H5NA transmission is the outbreak in Novosibirsk, Russia. The source of the outbreak has been attributed to wild birds. [See 20050725.2150 and .] But, in some of the limited information available on the nature of the Novosibirsk HPAI H5N1 virus, as provided by Russia to OIE [see 20050813.2369 and ], the 4 isolates of H5N1 from domestic poultry in 2 regions of Novosibirsk are similar, but one sample, which is from a wild duck, clearly has a different PCR electrophoreogram pattern (Figure 1 in the OIE report). While other data not included in the report may show that the virus in wild birds is related to those isolated from affected poultry in the Novosibirsk region, the available data suggest that such is not the case, and certainly no data that shows the wild birds were the vector of transmission has been made available at the present time.
Movement of birds, including annual migration, is only one of several possible means of dissemination of the HPAI H5N1 virus. In many of the areas of recent outbreaks, there is a thriving trade of live birds and poultry products. Some of the areas such as Qinghai in China and Hovsgol, Mongolia are tourist destinations. There is no evidence of sustained human to human transmission at the present time. But because the influenza virus can survive in poultry droppings for up to 2 weeks (Lu et al., 2003. Avian Dis 47:1015-1021), movement of people and contaminated farm equipment can rapidly spread the virus from one locale to another. Although much has been made of the recent pattern of spread as indicative of avian migration, many ornithologists have indicated that the spread of H5N1 does not fit with known behavior of the bird species in that area of the world (Butler, D. 2005. Nature: ): It should be noted that the same pattern of spread can just as easily be seen as from the major routes of human transportation. — Hon S. Ip United States Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center Diagnostic Virology Laboratory Madison, WI USA
[Those are valuable observations. Any available data on the detection of pathogenic H5N1 virus strains in subclinically infected uncaged wild birds will be appreciated. Subscribers are referred to a paper by FAO authors, published on 6 Aug 2005 in the Veterinary Record: Sims LD, Domenech J, Benigno C, Kahn S, Kamata A, Lubroth J, Martin V & Roeder P. (2005) Origin and evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Asia. Vet Rec. 157(6):159-64: "Abstract: Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by H5N1 viruses were reported almost simultaneously in 8 neighboring Asian countries between December 2003 and January 2004, with a 9th reporting in August 2004, suggesting that the viruses had spread recently and rapidly. However, they had been detected widely in the region in domestic waterfowl and terrestrial poultry for several years before this, and the absence of widespread disease in the region before 2003, apart from localized outbreaks in the Hong Kong Special Autonomous Region (SAR), is perplexing. Possible explanations include limited virus excretion by domestic waterfowl infected with H5N1, the confusion of avian influenza with other serious endemic diseases, the unsanctioned use of vaccines, and the under-reporting of disease as a result of limited surveillance. There is some evidence that the excretion of the viruses by domestic ducks had increased by early 2004, and there is circumstantial evidence that they can be transmitted by wild birds. The migratory birds from which viruses have been isolated were usually sick or dead, suggesting that they would have had limited potential for carrying the viruses over long distances unless subclinical infections were prevalent. However, there is strong circumstantial evidence that wild birds can become infected from domestic poultry and potentially can exchange viruses when they share the same environment. Nevertheless, there is little reason to believe that wild birds have played a more significant role in spreading disease than trade through live bird markets and movement of domestic waterfowl. Asian H5N1 viruses were 1st detected in domestic geese in southern China in 1996. By 2000, their host range had extended to domestic ducks, which played a key role in the genesis of the 2003/04 outbreaks. The epidemic was not due to the introduction and spread of a single virus but was caused by multiple viruses which were genotypically linked to the Goose/GD/96 lineage via the hemagglutinin gene. The H5N1 viruses isolated from China, including the Hong Kong SAR, between 1999 and 2004 had a range of genotypes and considerable variability within genotypes. The rising incidence and widespread reporting of disease in 2003/04 can probably be attributed to the increasing spread of the viruses from existing reservoirs of infection in domestic waterfowl and live bird markets leading to greater environmental contamination. When countries in the region started to report disease in December 2003, others were alerted to the risk and disease surveillance and reporting improved. The H5N1 viruses have reportedly been eliminated from 3 of the 9 countries that reported disease in 2003/04, but they could be extremely difficult to eradicate from the remaining countries, owing to the existence of populations and, possibly, production and marketing sectors, in which apparently normal birds harbor the viruses." During early stages of the outbreak, it was argued that the pattern of spread strongly suggested that the virus was carried by people smuggling poultry, a practice reportedly widespread in southeast Asia, rather than by migratory birds. Though there were reports of mass die-offs of rare birds in zoos in Thailand, regular monitoring of migratory birds in Thailand did not reveal the virus. In regions with big outbreaks in poultry, local wild birds were affected; the question remained as to whether their infection did not originate from the domestic birds (see item 3 in 20040128.0335). Useful information on waterbird populations worldwide can be found on the web-site of Wetland International; the organization has recently published the drafted 4th edition (2005) of "Waterbird population estimates," which can be accessed at . – Mod.AS]
[see also: Avian influenza, migrating birds – Asia 20050812.2354 Avian influenza, migratory birds – Mongolia (02) 20050812.2362 Avian influenza, migratory birds – Mongolia: OIE 20050808.2317 Avian influenza, migratory birds – Mongolia: OIE (03) 20050813.2367 Avian influenza – Asia (06): Mongolia, migratory b… 20050819.2443 Avian influenza – Asia (09): Russia (Siberia), OIE 20050822.2475 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China 20050527.1462 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China (02): warn… 20050601.1529 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China (03) 20050604.1558 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China (04): (Xin… 20050622.1743 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China (05) 20050628.1828 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China (06) 20050629.1833 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China (07) 20050702.1872 Avian influenza, wild waterfowl – China (08) 20050707.1922 Avian influenza – Europe (03): migratory birds, no… 20050821.2463 Avian influenza – Russia (Siberia)(13): H5N1, OIE 20050813.2369 Avian influenza – Russia (Siberia)(04): OIE 20050725.2150 2004 —- Avian influenza – Eastern Asia (13) 20040128.0335 2003 —- Avian influenza – China (Hong Kong): OIE (02) 20030126.0236] ………………..arn/msp/mpp
Evidence for wild birds spreading H5N1 in Russia looks very circumstantial. (Yes, yes, there’s Niman’s ink blot test map, but really, that should be laughed off the Internet.) According to best info so far, scenario we have is: No known H5N1 among wild waterbirds in winter areas; but asymptomatic H5N1 in domestic ducks in Vietnam. Very nasty H5N1 at Qinghai, killing geese, shelducks etc. Asymptomatic H5N1 (presumably) arriving in ducks (from where?) to various ponds scattered across Russia. It waits, for weeks, so far as we know without causing alarming numbers of wild bird deaths; seems all is fine. Then, when into poultry, this H5N1 kills chickens.
Other wild birds killed too (including ducks?) – which doesn’t add up I just tried "google news" for report I’ve heard of on UK foot-and-mouth disease [in cows] outbreak, a couple of years or so ago – I’d heard the report says transport among farms was responsible for more spread than was admitted at the time. Didn’t find the report in news, but instead, headlines like: "Foot-and-mouth disease spreading in Russia’s Far East near China" and [added later]
Foot-and-mouth disease spreading throughout Primorye region, near China.
Also reports of possible foot-and-mouth outbreak near Qinghai: China Culls Cattle in Qinghai Tibetan Village]. Hmm, don’t suppose anyone can blame wild, flying cows for this. Interesting, though. There is info on UK foot and mouth outbreaks, at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_UK_foot_and_mouth_crisis Includes, "By the middle of spring 2001, several cases of foot and mouth were reported in Ireland and mainland Europe, following unknowing transportation of infected animals from the UK. The cases sparked fears of a continent-wide pandemic, but these proved unfounded." – change the disease to bird flu, place names to Russia, Mongolia etc, and just maybe looks rather similar to h5n1 today.
Wetlands International has an informative Powerpoint presentation online: Wild birds as potential vectors of Avian Influenza between SW Siberia and the Netherlands
Looking through this, I thought a route map better fit Niman’s purported wild bird flu spread map than I’d expected. Nial Moores reckoned not:
Quote:Might be missing something, but movement around Urals still does not seem to me to fit at all Niman’s pattern does it? Outbreaks reached Novosibirisk, and then simply mostly went east and west from there along the border — in late summer, not in autumn. Not north. Thats also a long way from the area marked on the migration map (with ‘lower arrow’ pointing southwestward). Additionally, would be interested to know how much of that apparent northward movement is really proven, rather than assumed? How much is due to earth’s curvature rather than actual northward movement? Were there actually many recoveries of individuals actually north of breeding areas, or rather in areas to WNW? Seems very likely that there would be a nice divide in some species/populations in north and south of western europe (thermoclines, habitat types), but are there many people actually to observe movement between middle Ob and Urals and Russian coast? Also, still trying to find where South Yamal is… Thanks very much for the link to gulls: as you say seems very odd to dismiss as HIAP so quickly if wild birds died… Too much to absorb, and pity that language is perhaps still not being used precisely enough… Best wishes, Nial Birds KoreaIt seems the Russians aren't convinced migratory birds are solely/mainly behind the h5n1 poultry flu spread:
Quote:The authorities have set up ‘sanitary zones' around all farms in Kaliningrad, and all the roads coming to them from the borders are closedRussia fights to control bird flu
from another post I’ve made to Agonist
Maps to date show outbreaks do not follow ways birds move. (Static over summer, inc period of flightlessness for bar-headed geese, then some southward trends.) No bird movements shown to fit the patterns.
Watching the blue dots on penquinzee’s animation (glad someone has time for all this!) helps show this too; v nifty. Map of confirmed h5n1 poultry franken-flu in migratory birds would also be illuminating; so too indications re numbers of birds, and their condition (dead, not flying, seeming typical).I’ve predicted elsewhere: h5n1 poultry flu in wild birds will fizzle as it’s done in past outbreaks, and recently at Mongolian lake (and Qinghai, after monstrous flare up).
There will be continued outbreaks in and near poultry, with occurrences looking pretty random, but fitting spread by trade, legal and otherwise.
Vaccinations have been thought to create “silent epidemics”; where vaccinations employed, the h5n1 poultry flu virus will persist (seem to have helped it remain in China for a decade. Maybe – maybe – persisting like this in Thailand now, in which case maybe not good idea for Russia to import Thai chickens [not sure if already started, in which case….]).Where vaccinations not used, there may be more outbreaks, but with eradication of infected poultry flocks, and biosecurity, these may be controlled, again as has happened with high path bird flus (inc this one in HK, back in 97).
Few if any migrants arriving in winter areas to south will be found to have h5n1, despite extensive testing [from Alaska west to Europe]; too few to cause outbreaks in gatherings of wild birds, let alone in poultry.
Not really crystal ball gazing; more based on what’s happened with h5n1 poultry flu so far.
New Scientist: "And the infections reported so far do coincide geographically with major rail, trade and travel links through the region." – also cites the ProMed message from Ip of USGS (which I sent the mag, hoping to write em an article – tho they may have received from elsewhere too; this says there's little evidence wild birds are behind spread – see another post on this forum)
cf Y2K – Grauniad leader http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2005/aug/23/health.birdflu1
So, not all crazy wing flapping panic. Despite Nimanism. Phew.
Later thought:
wonder how important duplicate URLs issue is here.
For myself, I want Google to index threads, rather than individual posts. Not getting dupes for these.
then, only five posts a time, and if a forum’s active (much more than this one!), no one post should be around for long.
Guessing somewhat; and after all, you mentioned it’s a problem.
Hi Jeff:
Glad you find the posts and articles helpful; encouraging, so I’ll see about expanding sometime.
But, till your post, I hadn’t noticed re getting duplicate URLs from Simpleboard Latest 5 module – had focused elsewhere.
Now, however, I too see this problem. No idea re fix. Just maybe someone at tsmf forums will be able to help.
Though really, this is at least partly a Mambo issue: it seems to me that Mambo is now at stage at which could improve URL generating, including with better mechanism from component URLs.In article about using menalto Gallery, I mention a fix for SEF URLs for this component, to work with Xaneon – not sure if could be adopted for Simpleboard (I’m clueless re coding).
If you have any success, maybe make a follow-up post.
Cheers,
Martinjust made another post to the Agonist.org forums; without giving all previous posts, followed another by Niman saying it’s perfectly clear re wild birds spreading bird flu in Russia just now
Surely OIE report for the two outbreaks in n Xinjiang are just repeating info from officials in China. The reports give no evidence wild birds were involved; none amongst the dead or sick – just farmyard geese. Right on the border with Kazakhstan.
How is the story clear re migratory birds when outbreaks came at a time when Qinghai birds are sedentary (even flightless)? As you yourself say, Doc Niman, migrations are predictable;here, get result contrary to predictions yet you’re unfazed.
Russian reports to OIE also cite wild birds with no real evidence I can see – and astonishing simultaneous outbreaks at 13 farms up to 600 km apart. So, what happened here? – some infected bird flew a wild flight, against migration direction, pooping in farm ponds here and there as it went? Or several birds, even flocks of birds [can poop from one bird really infect a farm pond sufficiently?] – which gets even more unlikely in late summer/early autumn, especially if propose that all the way from Qinghai.
Again, looks like rather hasty official conclusions (after H2 initially announced, too). Deja flu all over again, as it were, recalling 2003/04, say.Just because virus in Russia looks similar to that in Qinghai doesn’t mean Qinghai was the source. (If I go to bank here in Hong Kong, draw out a US$, and it looks like those you have, does it mean it came from you?) The Russian virus also, like Qinghai, looks a lot like h5n1 in se China. And that virus could and did kill geese, and swans (captive – either farm, or ornamental).
Qinghai virus reportedly killed 8 of 8 chickens innoculated in 20 hours. In a Russian outbreak, mortality in poultry reported to be just over 3 percent.
Much is mystery, not helped by official obfuscation and secrecy.No whooping cranes died in Mongolia; they were whooper swans. (A tough species that won’t head south till winter’s close – I’ve seen a few fly south on ne China coast, in November, when temps getting towards freezing.) Three birds found with h5n1, all dead; 6500 birds seen, with living birds looking fit and well, and those tested, testing negative.
This error helps highlight the chasm in your knowledge re wild birds.
Perhaps you could get out to a migration watchpoint near you – should be some migration getting underway around now, talk to some knowledgeable birders. Migrations in US not identical, but have similarities to those in Eurasia, including massive tendencies to northward components in spring, almost static during summer, then massive southward component during autumn.Watch what happens: outbreaks will continue to be haphazard when compared to migratory bird routes/timings; but fit trade. Just as 2003/04. Already signs of this – the outbreaks post Qinghai mostly well to north, with Lhasa popping up; then big outbreak in Japan.
[You had predicted outbreaks following Qinghai would be to west, south and east; presumably as those migration routes are so predictable. Well, we await significant outbreaks at places to the south – and my guess is, we will keep on waiting, for by now the migrants have little of the h5n1 variant left: they’ve died, become too sick to migrate, killed off the virus with immune responses, the virus has evolved/recombined to more benign forms. A guess, as I say, but fits previous patterns, even Mongolia just recently. Maybe, even, at least some have been culled?]Legal and illegal poultry trade transport may be less sexy than migrants flying like intercontinental ballistic missiles (in words of one over-excited journalist – think he needs a lie down, and less beer), but with trade there’s no need to come up with bizarre explanations (partly flightless geese suddenly flying/walking north late in breeding season), nor to suggest what we know about migration routes is wrong. (And we’re not so very ignorant; there are Russian ornithologists, increasing amount of ornithology in China, plenty of birders in India. But Damien’s right: migration routes and timings are complex. That, however, is no excuse for simply being vague and waffly in saying “wild birds” with no notions re vector species.)
Oh, and Captain Tripps – the cartoon brought big smile to my face! Bightened up a grey, rainy day here in Hong Kong, where I’ve just tried looking for migrants, but few terns only.
Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/20 06:08
Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/20 06:14
email in re two commentaries by Henry Niman on Recombinomics site
Extracts of commentaries:
Quote:H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Spreads to Kursk in Western Russia?Recombinomics Commentary
August 17, 2005According to the Ministry’s report for today makes about 11,300 poultry
heads dead of the bird flu in Russia. Now the Ministry has received
confirmation of the epidemic in Kursk Oblast.The above comments indicate the H5N1 wild bird flu has moved to the
western edge of Russia (see map). However, the major jump has not been widely reported. If true it seems that H5N1 will spread throughout
Europe this fall. Some had speculated that the migration this fall
would only affect more southern regions of Europe such as the Caspian
and Black Seas, as well as the Mediterranean.However, H5N1 has been reported in many species and several migratory
paths overlap in Europe, so if some or most inflected flocks can
transport and transmit H5N1, the widespread infections would be
expected.The path from Qinghai Lake to Xinjiang Province, to Chany Lake to the
Ural Mountains demonstrates that migratory birds can easily and quickly
transport and transmit H5N1 over long distance, raising the distinct
possibility that soon H5N1 will be distributed worldwide.http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08160501/H5N1_Talapker.html
Quote:H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Talapker Kazakhstan Targets MediterraneanRecombinomics Commentary
August 16, 2005“In the village of Talapker, the North Kazakhstan Region, over one
hundred geese, hens and ducks died on August 8-15. Laboratory tests
identified avian influenza,” the territorial department of Kazakhstan’s
Ministry of Agriculture told Itar-Tass.both had wrong info, according to WWF Russia:
Quote:The Ministry (Agriculture) has no information about bird flu in Kursk
region. Additionally, the AI was not confirmed in Kalmykia: the death of
domestic birds was caused by other stomach infection.following another post to Agonist’s qinghai birds tracking thread, which yet again brought up the ducks and geese that died of h5n1 in Hong Kong parks, plus mention of h5n1 being found in Guangdong geese, I posted: Someone else already mentioned re the nesting areas of Great Shearwater. Nesting away from predators that can pop down burrows and eat young, eggs, adults. So, offshore islands favoured – kinds of places with few other birds except other nesting seabirds. Discount shearwaters; realm of fantasy. (They’re rather like albatrosses, nigh on classic oceanic birds; can even drink seawater, excreting salt thro tubes on bills.
Any gulls you see are gulls, quite distinct from shearwaters, and coastal or even inland living.) Surely, for potential vector, you’d want bird that can more readily get infected by faecal to oral route (key way for birds I believe): ducks, geese and swans that live much of time in water, with some species grazing on grass (excreting as they go) – which I think explains why regular bird flus naturally high in these birds, and they’re unaffected by such regular flus.
Plus, of course, poultry – you ever see some of the footage from inside some of China’s poultry farms, with great numbers of birds, denselye packed, and loads of faecal slurry around (mixing in with water from attempts to clean it – runoff from cleaning likely to water courses, hence giving another means of likely spread)? Those geese in Guangdong were from farms. (Geese winter further north in China; they’re hardy birds that don’t travel far south – bar-headed being exception, still tough, but unable to winter so far north coz of Himalayas, so for large proportion flying over them to India.)
Rather as the flamingo, and all ducks and geese recorded with h5n1 in Hong Kong. Take a look at my Dead Ducks Don’t Fly and Info and links re bird flu pages, where I tried to gather the reports of bird flu in wild birds to around summer 2004. If you’ve more reports that credible, please let me know. (Looking here before would have halted need for unnecessary posting re HK ornamental birds as if they are wild. Similarly, black swans in Shenzhen died from bird flu. Again, just as "wild" as those Thai zoo tigers. Again, we humans making birds victims, not vectors.)
HK annually hosts tens of thousands of wild waterbirds: cormorants, gulls, ducks, shorebirds, herons… So, surely you’d expect wild ducks to sicken and die from bird flu if it was spread from parks – and to do so before any purported spread to places thousands of km away, but birds that can’t fly as wings clipped (or in case of Guangdong geese, in farms, and taken off to markets for eating, or movement to other farms). Instead, none have (yet) done so.
Hi Duncan:
I’d figure this is a real concern. Maybe not v high risk just yet – but something to watch for.
Likewise with some of the other waterfowl that can become highly concentrated in east Asia (sadly, they aren’t all over the place as some folk maybe suggest). For instance, the majority of the world’s lesser white-fronted geese winter at Dongting Lake, along Yangzi valley.Virus just might come from migrant flying in; but also I think from effluent from poultry farms that suffer infections (as you may see from my comments elsewhere, I think this is far more likely route; it’s my guess for how h5n1 got into Qinghai birds anyway – whether there, or not far south on migration routes).
Tough to know how much of a concern this is. Note, say, Hong Kong has substantial concentrations of wintering waterbirds, but as yet the few wild birds that were known to have bird flu sickened/died without transmitting into the wild flocks. Likewise, when h5n1 into Openbill Storks in Thailand, which also in large concentrations, rather few birds infected and died, leaving most ok. So, maybe not so easy to spread and sustain this infection in wild birds (partly as it’s so virulent).
As well as this potential, Nial Moores of Birds Korea has expressed concerns re farmers’ reactions should h5n1 near South Korea this winter: how will they view massive flock of wild duck? (esp if get more scaremongering in media; already had one Korean prof saying wild stuff re wild birds spreading bird flu – nonsense, but made media; sensible rebuttals less attention grabbing)
Well, that’s my four penn’orth on this, anyway.
Martin
Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/16 09:02
Just reading some info on Niman’s site
Includes:
“The Qinghai isolates were also virulent in chickens. Experimentally infected chickens dies within 20 hours.” [not so good, then, for wild birds to get infected, then fly a long way in the wrong directions, especially if they happen to be flightless from moulting]Niman on his certainties re migratory birds spreading the virus:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08120501/H5N1_Migration_Monitoring.html
[no info on species involved, nor info on migration routes and timings, no explanation of why virus first spread northwest during/late in the breeding season, no real ideas re just how if it’s moving in wild birds only the virus can get into so many farms so quickly … Bah!]He concludes this page by saying:
“However, the mounting dead bodies on the ground, should easily define the migratory routes, which will likely cover most of Asia, Europe, and beyond.”
– well, we’ll see.
As yet, we are not seeing spread along migration routes – not following timings of migrations, anyway.
Whether a pattern will emerge of outbreaks that actually do follow known info on bird movements, we’ll have to wait and see. As for me, I’m sceptical; but expect that will see more outbreaks following other routes – known as roads.Julie sent follow-up email, with questions; I replied:
Quote:Hi Julie:Thanks for the reply.
I think I understand now what your position is. I think I did not look further enough into the information on your website!
I was tired and a little bit burnout! I can understand now that your position is that H5N1 initially was probably due to poor hygiene practices! As to where I am at now, is tracking the new outbreaks of H5N1. I am not saying it is not possible that there is a connection due to hygiene. I looked at the information in the lancet document. Don’t you think it is possible. That now the H5N1 is in ducks, and that it has infected other species that do migrate? Or are you saying that this flu is just an epidemic in mainly chickens? Are you saying that the import and export is the avenue of the spread?– well, we know h5n1 is in several species that migrate – but those we know it in have been sick or dead. What we don’t know is whether we have birds with h5n1 healthy enough to fly significant distances; indeed, we have evidence to the contrary. (The asymptomatic ducks reported in Vietnam were farm birds.)
Yes, re import/export, trade.
Had email from Nati Eltin of Poultry Med, saying I might be right, except for now w Russia/Mongolia, where wild birds for sure (he said). I asked re knowledge of trade in this area; he didn’t know. There certainly is trade (I don’t know re poultry, but think the outbreaks show there is); without knowledge of this, too, I believe it impossible to say with certainty that wild birds responsible here. Need far more info, inc explanation of why outbreak reports are “backwards” compared to migrations, and at time when a major supposed vector is flightless!Quote:What is your position on the United States and H5N1? Do you think that this is going to burn itself out in Asia,Europe?
This flu is now in Russia and Mongolia and seems to be spreading west and east! My concern is that this flu is going to be brought into the United States through Alaska. I cannot understand the lack of testing in these birds? I cannot understand the lack of information sharing? My feeling is this has gone way to far! And for way to long!. Regardless of whether it was the lack of clean hygiene practices. Or whether a combination of that and it spreading to other species of aves.Don’t you feel it is has recombined over and over and has now acquired the ability to cross many species barriers?– as to virus in wild birds (that we know of). I think it may burn out; but may also evolve, to something less virulent in wild birds, maybe even to something that can’t readily infect poultry, let alone humans. (this notion partly from another science writer, Wendy Orent, who plans further articles)
-yes, this has gone way too far. But in POULTRY not in wild birds. Like a peat fire, I suggest – been smouldering away in China since at least 1996, occasionally flaring up giving problems (especially where poultry not vaccinated, I think), yet never put out.
This is unprecedented so far as I know; till now, high path avian flus in poultry dealt with by eradicating poultry flocks. (Hong Kong won praise for doing this in 1997, but clearly didn’t happen on mainland [where no problems reported as I recall, but I suspect there was trouble too]. There, vaccination has become the main approach; coupled with secrecy.)
– there is testing, in Alaska. See below, which I was sent by Declan Butler, writer with Nature [not attached here, but maybe on Nature website – I may check, add link if I find it]. Plus testing in Asia – here in HK, where get migrants from Siberia (and, I think, some individuals from nesting grounds in Alaska [not checking about this, but some species breeding in Siberia also range to Alaska]), thousands of birds tested – no healthy one w h5n1 yet. [which seems odd given the v few dead wild birds with h5n1 here – to me, helps show it’s not real easy for wild birds to spread this virus amongst each other. Maybe need special circumstances, like goose colony.]
Quote:There was some pretty convincing evidence that in 2004 that H5N1 had been transmitted human to human. I guess I am asking you what your opinion is of the current situation globally? Because I feel like we are sitting on a time bomb!
-Yes, but don’t worry about wild birds here. Look at human movements.
If efficient human to human transmission becomes possible, I believe wild birds will become irrelevant as vectors. (Look at SARS spread, say – not so easily transmitted, yet popped up here n there pretty fast, before controls. Flus have moved fast before; now, chance for unprecedented speed it seems to me.)
But remember, too, Agonist can be more the Alarmist here – on one thread, several members expecting to be v ill or dead from bird flu by mid-Sept. Well, maybe it will come upon us as fast; but maybe not.
We’re still playing a watching “game”; as China continues gambling with its poultry policies [with others – Thailand as I recall – also joining in the gambling with vaccinations], and no one really knows what will happen next.Hope this is useful,
MartinHere's a response I made to post on Agonist, asking why I assert poultry industry is clearly main vector for h5n1 bird flu: Timings help. For 2003/04, say, the outbreaks did not fit migratory bird routes, timings (and species travelling). Nor were there outbreaks noted among migratory birds indicating that any were carrying h5n1 around; some cases of birds getting it and becoming sick or dying. Extensive testing, inc in Hong Kong (a major place along flyways here) didn't find in healthy wild birds. So, if not migratory birds, what else? Only poultry industry seems left. Inc in China, where vaccinations maybe (maybe, I'm not gonna start slam dunking closed cases around) helped create a silent epidemic
seems the h5n1 variant has been around since at least 1996. Outbreaks do fit with notion of h5n1 being carried around in poultry industry – birds mingling in markets and so on; in Thailand, some links to trade in fighting cocks. To me, too, fit pretty well with peat fire-like spread: the silent epidemic in vaccinated birds, flaring up when to regions without vaccines (Thailand, Indonesia etc in 2003/04, Xinjiang, Russia, Mongolia recently [for latter, yes, maybe wild birds, but those timings again looking odd – how about trade routes though? Pattern also sits fairly well with highways; FAO has suggested can be a change in transmission, from original flyways, to highways and byways.
Again, why no maps of highways and byways here? There is too little info; China secrecey not helping. (note re Nature paper, saying virus at Qinghai similar to poultry in se China, and maybe came from a single introduction from poultry. Branded a leak of secrets – not something I'd expect if the authors were really wide of the mark.) Poultry trade as vector looks better to me than flightless geese moving north at wrong time, or whatever. (Come on, Doc Niman, those shearwaters [Niman suggested Great Shearwaters might be vectors for bird flu; had been die-off reported, after ocean currents led to less food, but no hint of flu involved] – what next, little green men spreading it around the universe?!)
Yes, let’s hope for strong article from Declan – and from some other reporters who’ve been in touch with some bird people inc Nial and me re this issue.
I’ve just sent a rather late, short response:
Quote:Just rereading this email:I guessed the Japanese crows had been scavenging on carcasses of chickens that died of bird flu (guessing farmers maybe toss out at least some carcasses – by no means all always go by the book, at least in HK anyway [when we had an escaped young croc in New Territories, I saw news report mentioning dead chickens floating down creek it was in – helped give me notion re scavenging, inc for HK grey heron and black-headed gull]).
Seem to remember Agonist board people got a bit excited about these crows, but, as seems to happen with wild birds and h5n1 [till this summer anyway] – they got sick, and died. [not sure if a v few found that were sick]
– ie, as seems typical with wild birds getting this nasty avian flu variant, they didn’t become vectors.Martin
Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/14 04:06
From a New Scientist piece:
Quote:Craig Pringle, viral diseases moderator for ProMed Mail cautions that although the virus has been found in migratory birds, it is a leap to assume they can spread it to domestic poultry. He told New Scientist that it is possible the virus could have reached Russia and Kazakhstan through general trade routes.Bit more reading via Google, and another comment from me:
Just come across a page by Henry Niman where he forecast bird flu from Qinghai in July “will soon arrive in areas to the east, south, and west, of the summer location.”
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07280502/H5N1_Qinghai_Evolution.htmlYet when it spread to the north instead, he wasn’t fazed – just said bar-headed geese move north from Qinghai to a lake in Russia.
And never mind, apparently, this happens at a time they’re flightless. (Presumably, Niman figures they walk pretty fast.)I emailed reply to Nial (and others on the email distribution list):
Quote:Hi Nial: Thanks again for another strong email. Couple of points: In Hong Kong (sub-tropical), one or two Grey Herons found dead with H5N1. One was around mid-winter as I recall – not a time when herons migrating into HK. So, surely hadn’t flown far to HK with the virus (as surely wouldn’t harbour virus for weeks, then suddenly sicken and die). My guess – it scavenged a chicken tossed out by farmer, maybe in HK, quite possibly just across the border. (Remember, there’s secrecy re h5n1 in mainland.) A few other wild birds found with h5n1 in HK – inc little egret, black-headed gull. None fitting them migrating to HK bringing the virus (eg egrets mostly resident, the gull during mid-winter).All had one thing in common: all dead. And, no sign of infection spreading – even though occurrences at same time as tens of thousands of waterbirds wintering in HK. [As in Thailand, where infection among storks didn’t spread, seems it’s not so easy for infected birds to spread h5n1 even locally, let alone over distance.] I’m not at all sure ducks from se China would migrate to Qinghai; think they’d instead head north, to ne China and east Russia. Henry Niman is suggesting the Qinghai infection came from birds wintering in India – even tho no h5n1 reported in India, and no indications of wild bird deaths there or elsewhere on migration routes to Qinghai. For Aleina Tweed and Eleni Galanis: I’ve done pages on bird flu that may interest you: Debunking wild birds as vectors for 2003/2004: https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/birdflu/birdfluintro.html Info and links: https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/birdflu/birdfluinfo.html Also started a forum re wild birds and bird flu (posts welcome):
I’m attaching a map I did for 2003/2004 outbreaks, when superficial look suggested they lay along migration routes; look at timings of outbreaks and bird movements, and species involved, and becomes clear wild birds weren’t involved. [here, too, outbreaks going "backwards" along migration routes. As Nial indicates, birds pretty much stay put [especially if flightless!!!] or move south after around end of June; unlike bird flu reports.] It would also be interesting to see maps of highways and poultry farms, and how these fit with outbreaks! Best regards, Martin
I replied to Nial (and others cc’d to), adding:
Quote:Hi Nial: Thanks again for another strong email. Couple of points: In Hong Kong (sub-tropical), one or two Grey Herons found dead with H5N1. One was around mid-winter as I recall – not a time when herons migrating into HK. So, surely hadn’t flown far to HK with the virus (as surely wouldn’t harbour virus for weeks, then suddenly sicken and die). My guess – it scavenged a chicken tossed out by farmer, maybe in HK, quite possibly just across the border. (Remember, there’s secrecy re h5n1 in mainland.) A few other wild birds found with h5n1 in HK – inc little egret, black-headed gull. None fitting them migrating to HK bringing the virus (eg egrets mostly resident, the gull during mid-winter).All had one thing in common: all dead. And, no sign of infection spreading – even though occurrences at same time as tens of thousands of waterbirds wintering in HK. [As in Thailand, where infection among storks didn’t spread, seems it’s not so easy for infected birds to spread h5n1 even locally, let alone over distance.] I’m not at all sure ducks from se China would migrate to Qinghai; think they’d instead head north, to ne China and east Russia. Henry Niman is suggesting the Qinghai infection came from birds wintering in India – even tho no h5n1 reported in India, and no indications of wild bird deaths there or elsewhere on migration routes to Qinghai. For Aleina Tweed and Eleni Galanis: I’ve done pages on bird flu that may interest you: Debunking wild birds as vectors for 2003/2004: https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/birdflu/birdfluintro.html Info and links: https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/birdflu/birdfluinfo.html Also started a forum re wild birds and bird flu (posts welcome):
I’m attaching a map I did for 2003/2004 outbreaks, when superficial look suggested they lay along migration routes; look at timings of outbreaks and bird movements, and species involved, and becomes clear wild birds weren’t involved. [here, too, outbreaks going "backwards" along migration routes. As Nial indicates, birds pretty much stay put [especially if flightless!!!] or move south after around end of June; unlike bird flu reports.] It would also be interesting to see maps of highways and poultry farms, and how these fit with outbreaks! Best regards, Martin
Another email in from Nial Moores
He’s replying to this request, from two epidemiologists at British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Quote:It looks like AI appeared:
– in Quinghai province (China) in mid-April to mid-May 2005
– in neighbouring Xinjiang province (China) in mid-May to mid-June
2005
– in southwestern Siberia in mid-July (18 Jul 2005 1st reported onset)
– in Kazakhstan in mid-July (22 Jul 2005 1st reported onset).Looking at a map of the region, it is telling that these areas are in
a rather direct north-west line from each other. Moreover, Qinghai province is also in line with Thailand and Northern Vietnam.Is it possible that a particular species of migratory bird travels
this north-west route in the spring/summer and could be spreading the virus? We would be interested to know if there are (local?) experts with knowledge about specific Asian avian migratory routes who might be able to help pinpoint one or more avian species that could be spreading the virus. This would be interesting to know and would contribute to our understanding — and perhaps to our ability to control — these avian influenza outbreaks.Quote:— As well as detailing my own opinion below (based on 15 years work on bird conservation and research in Far East Asia and as director of Birds Korea), I am also forwarding this question and mail to both Dr. Taej Mundkur of Wetlands International (one of the most published and respected waterbird specialists in Asia) and Dr. Martin Williams in Hong Kong, an ornithologist who is the leading (english-speaking) figure for raising awareness of poultry flu outbreaks in this region. [!! – Martin]You ask: Is there a species that basically just keeps migrating north west ward during the sping and summer.
This question to me seems to have three elements:
(1) Does the timing of outbreaks really seem to follow a Northwest line?
Well, looking at the map (if accurate) at http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Map_2005_Tomsk.html the pattern seems rather more erratic than that to me.(2) Do any species migrate that way (either north-west through the spring or summer or erratically through the spring and summer)?
In short, no.(3) Do individuals of any species migrate between all affected areas, with presence coinciding with outbreaks?
None, as far as I know.By way of longer explanation, this kind of migration pattern would be an extremely odd and wasteful behavior for any species.
Generally, as in North America as in Asia, most bird species that breed in the northern hemisphere do so in months between March and August/September. The further north they nest, the later the migrants will arrive on the breeding territory, which will still be occupied for a number of weeks or months. In the far north, most summer visitors will lay eggs and fledge young in May-June-first half of July, for example.
In some cases, such as in some shorebird species (peeps, curlews, plovers etc), failed breeders, after migrating all the way to northern breeding areas (getting there in late May), will then start soon to migrate south again, with increasing numbers of such adults arriving back at key staging areas (often coastal) as early as mid to late July (eg as far south as Korea).
In a few other species, individuals will not complete their northward migration in spring and will therefore not go as far as the full adults, summering at a site well south of their breeding grounds.
For the majority of all species, they simply (and logically) occupy breeding areas for several weeks/ months (between e.g May and July), after which many species undertake some form of moult before southward migration. In the case of many ducks and geese species, most individuals are effectively flightless or have restricted powers of flight in mid-summer. All parts of this biological cycle are fairly regular and predictable, evolved to meet given environmental conditions.
Of especial interest in this regard is the Bar-headed Goose, presented by some “authorities” as a likely vector.
Please note, beyond not migrating as far north as Novosibirisk, the following expert account on Bar-headed Goose:
“Spring migration starts in March in India and Pakistan; arrives at Kok Nor Mar-Apr; and northern Gobi and Pamir mid-May.”
Egg-laying in “early to mid-may in Tianshan; incubation 27-30 days…breeding pairs with goslings start wing moult 24-28 days after young hatch; both adults lose all primaries and secondaries within 24 hr. Able to fly 32-25 days later with young; by then, primaries 80% of normal length, and within 40-45 days, wings fully grown”
“Autumn migration starts in northern breeding areas in late Aug, in Pamir end Sept”.
(Wurdinger I.,, 2005: in J. Kear (editor), Ducks, Geese and Swans. Bird Families of the World. Oxford University Press.)
This gives us approximate spring/summer dates thus:
Arrival at e.g. Qinghai in late April/early May
Egg-laying and incubation;
Early June-mid-June hatching of goslings;
Early July-late July wing moult of adults starts, when these geese are FLIGHTLESS until early August/mid-August, and capable of longer flights only by the end of August.
End of August capable of longer flights
“Autumn migration starts in northern breeding areas in late Aug, in Pamir end sept”.(Odd that some “authorities” are apparently suggesting that the geese during this flightless period have been flying north to Siberia and west to Kazakhstan!!!).
As to the third element of your question, looking at the distribution of outbreaks (since 1997 rather than just this year) and the distribution of species, I think probably the only species, species-group that might have occured in all of these areas when and where H5N 1 is implicated or likely to be implicated (from Indonesia to Japan, to Korea to China to Mongolia to Kazakhstan) would be: (1) “ducks”; (2) Grey Heron Ardea cinerea, and (3) “shorebirds” (peeps, curlews, plovers).
( I would very much welcome correction from Taej, Martin or others if appropriate.)
It is of course essential to put and KEEP the above paragraph in context.
1) As noted before, only one species of northern duck regularly migrates to Indonesia, albeit quite scarcely, the Garganey Anas querquedula. However, it does not occur in Korea or Japan in winter for example, and breeds north of the area where this summer’s outbreaks have occurred. There is no duck species occurring in all areas – and certainly therefore no individuals fanning out missile like from some central Asian breeding ground (!).
2) As it is a very widespread species in Europe and Asia, likely only the Grey Heron would be found in northernmost, southermost, westernmost and easternmost sites where outbreaks have occurred in the past few years, but although a partial migrant I am not aware of any evidence (or even possibility) of a Grey Heron migrating the whole distance from e.g Indonesia north to Russia. Seems extremely unlikely.
This would appear to be very wasteful behavior for such a large species and not supported as far as I am aware by any banding recoveries.(correct Taej?)
I am not sure of the exact status of Grey Heron in more tropical areas, but I would imagine largely resident, with populations in some areas supplemented by northern breeders wintering southward. I do not believe any have been found infected? And of course, if this was a significant vector species, surely it would have already infected birds in many other countries to which it migrates (eg in South Asia) where the disease has yet to be detected.
3) Shorebirds/peeps etc are a very large family; with many species; and many different migration strategies.
Firstly, NO shorebirds, individuals or species, would be moving around nomad-like to each site spreading disease.
However, there are so many species, in some their migrations are so lengthy, and as they are found in every country of the region during migration or as non-breeders, it is possible that some individuals of one or other species could perhaps have been in the same area at the same time as each outbreak.
Several of these shorebird species migrate the length of the Flyway to Alaska and down to Indonesia and to Australia and New Zealand, to many areas where there have been outbreaks, and even more where there have been none. Some of these shorebird species are generally considered (on the basis of extensive published research) to be among the most adapted of bird species in terms of energetics. This is believed to make them among the most susceptible to disease. It has been suggested that one adaptation to this susceptibility is that many such species of shorebird nest in the Far North or in mountains (NB: a general belief simply put is that such species have low resistance to disease, and this kind of Arctic environment is less conducive to disease outbreaks than the tropics and lowlands). Although generally susceptible to disease, no shorebirds have yet been found that are infected that I am aware of.
In summary to parts 2 and 3 of your question:
1) In NO case that I know of does a species arrive in the Northern Hemisphere at a breeding area, then during the breeding season disperse both west, north and east of there.
2) No species will likely have been present at the sites of all outbreaks; even no species group can be obviously associated (certainly not geese that do not migrate to Indonesia, are rare in Viet nam and northern Thailand; not wild ducks; not gulls). In no case, therefore can a single wild species be obviously implicated, linking the sites together.
3) The spread and timing of the disease really does not match the behaviour and movement of wild migrant birds (not only this summer, but also in previous outbreaks).I have not yet heard whether there were domestic ducks at all of these recent outbreak sites? Or poultry? Or whether the route of spread better matches highway and human transport systems? I wonder too if the same vectors are likely even responsible in each outbreak?
For the record, I have little knowledge of disease, with no medical background, so I would be reluctant to dismiss wild birds involvement in the spread of the disease. It is of course possible that some species might have been involved as vectors in one or more of these outbreaks (in the case of Qinghai, timing of outbreak for example could coincide with arrivals of wild ducks coming from SE China, where also many domestic ducks are kept in natural wetlands; if infected in SE China but still capable of migration and shedding the virus — itself possible?- they would then mix with Bar-headed Geese and Great Black-headed Gull arriving from the southwest. Not only are thery both species arriving from areas where they would likely have no resistance to the disease (S Asia), but they are also both species that nest at Qinghai in colonies). However, I believe from what I have read that there is no proof yet that wild birds are vectors, despite very many claims. And even if the viral strain is the same at several of these sites, common sense dictates that the virus likely did not arrive at each site in an identical manner (unless through human influence).
In contrast, some outbreaks have been confined to poultry houses and in areas with few wild waterbirds. It seems extremely obvious, therefore, that the MAJOR cause of spread has been and very likely will continue to be poultry (here including domestic ducks): not only are they far more abundant overall than wild waterbirds, they are maintained in an environment where disease is easiest to spread and evolve; they are the only bird species found in probably each and every area; and the only species known to move throughout the region, but not freely into neighboring regions (such as Europe and North America).
It is clear therefore that two major steps do need to be taken urgently to reduce the danger of the spread of this disease:
1) much greater regulation and restrictions on poultry industry and transport; and
2) much greater controls put in place to keep domestic ducks, geese and chickens away from areas where wild waterbirds occur – so that such species do not fall victim to outbreaks.With very best wishes,
Nial Moores
Director, Birds KoreaAh yes, Niman seems to have stopped bothering about petty things such as facts.
His commentary includes:
Quote:Since many birds that nest or rest at Qinghai Lake go on to summer at Chany Lake. It is very likely that the sequences of H5N1 from both places is similar.– well, it would be bizarre for birds that breed at Qinghai (during their spring/summer) would then move a good way north for summer.
Evidence here of Niman wanting things both ways – I’ve seen another post from last month, in which he said there was already snow in Qinghai, and birds already moving south from there.“It is very likely…” – again, we don’t really need facts when there’s a story to tell.
And, it is indeed likely I think; but that could be because it’s a similar virus that’s being spread in poultry. (Which I figure could be transported in whichever direction – especially along highways, as the outbreaks perhaps follow.)
Sad thing is, Googling for “chany lake qinghai geese” in case there does happen to be a source for Niman’s bizarre assertion about goose movements between the two lakes, I found no such info, but 34 results, most of them quoting Niman.
One of the sites with the info is freerepublic.com – “the premier online gathering place for independent, grass-roots conservatism on the web.” I figure this is for people who are a darn sight scarier than any geese.Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/13 06:09
The article’s paragraph re migratory birds and flu is altogether curious:
Quote:Avian influenza comes from aquatic birds, including migratory ducks, geese and herons. As Garrett explains, the loss of these birds’ migratory routes in China has brought them into direct contact with humans in farms and parks. In this way, influenza is spread from migrating birds to domestic birds, then to pigs and ultimately to humans.Birds haven’t lost their migratory routes; humans have moved into migration routes – and done so worldwide.
Farms and parks are, in evolutionary terms, new habitats, which many bird species live in (some becoming farmland specialists, say).
As Garrett will know if she’s visited China, it’s darn hard finding birds in much Chinese farmland – agriculture is so intensive that there’s near zero slightly wild land left [not even hedgerows, rough grass patches etc as still fairly common in, say, UK]).
Further, city parks are usually very quiet – and not places for many waterbirds (Beijing Summer Palace, if you can call it a park, is one of few exceptions I can think of – good for ducks).Worldwide, humans have long been in direct contact with birds – hunting them, and with some like chickens and ducks farmed.
Since 97, notions that need transmission via pigs to humans has been shown to be false: this h5n1 variant can transmit directly from poultry to humans (which is mentioned in the interview).
This paragraph is part of the preamble for the interview – so I wonder if it was the interview writer, not Garrett, erring here. (Though it starts by saying, “As Garrett explains…)
In the interview, Garrett does say:
Quote:Even now there’s not a real smooth operating relationship between the World Health Organization, the World Organization for Animal Health and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. So those agencies in the UN system that deal with animals and agriculture are not as neatly plugged onto the World Health Organization, and vice versa, as one would hope. And the same is true here in the U.S. institutionally. Our U.S. Department of Agriculture and Department of Health and Human Services are not exactly good bedfellows.Agencies that traditionally deal with agriculture tend to have as their mission statement the defense of the agricultural industry. So they’re very tied into the economic side of agriculture, whereas health agencies tend to view that with suspicion, and to be tied into a whole different kind of economy. So it creates a kind of natural tension between these forces, and it filters all the way down to the average doctor, the average veterinarian, the average wildlife scientist or ecologist. So the bridges haven’t been built at the institutional level or at the personal level.
– defence of agricultural industry; indeed, and it’s this that I think is helping cause bias towards blaming wild birds, not the real villain of the piece, farming.
Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/13 05:48
Hi Monkeyes2:
Thanks for the post.
Rather odd paper, to me.
– take a virus (the h5n1 variant, or part of the current family of variants) that’s known to kill a range of species, from flamingoes through ducks and geese and crows, to tigers, cats and humans, iinfect some captive songbirds with it, and discover that Hey, they (mostly) die.Yes, I believe you’re broadly right about the route to humans. (Various literature indicates this.)
Seems what you need for flu that can threatens human is:
1. Take Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (or even mildly pathogenic) from wild birds – where it causes few or no apparent problems; and cannot infect humans.
2. Introduce to farming, maybe from ducks taken captive, maybe from wild ducks that mix with captive.
3. Allow it to evolve; perhaps in poultry (for reasons in above post, wild junglefowl maybe had little flu, so a species barrier).
Maybe some more evolution in pigs – till recently, I believe this had been thought crucial to get a flu that could infect humans.4. If conditions right, Presto! – you get a virus strain/variant that can cause problems in humans too. (From what I recall of stuff I’ve read, maybe this has led to waves of flu outbreaks/pandemics, which could be dangerous as a new virus for us to deal with.)
Extra step 5, for h5n1: vaccinate poultry. If New Scientist right, this allows the new n nasty virus – “superflu” New Sci dubbed h5n1 variant – to smoulder in poultry, bit like a peaf fire it appears.
This way, you have a new virus at the end of all steps – something that was never present in wild birds.
So, I’d suggest that saying “wild waterfowl are regarded as the primordial reservoir hosts of these viruses..”
is somewhat akin to saying “rocks are regarded as the primordial source of nuclear weapons”Question, though, is whether once introduced from poutry to wild birds, the new superflu can be transmitted by them.
Evidence so far: no. It can kill them, for sure. Maybe they can transmit locally, but this hasn’t been proven.
But so far, wild birds haven’t been efficient vectors of h5n1 variant, while poultry industry has spread it around much of Asia just fine.
(Russia situation unclear; but more info needed. Should, however, wonder why Russian outbreaks not reported till July – by which time, migratory birds should be ready to fly south [not birds hopping north from Qinghai]).Remember, too, wild birds don’t vote, have little economic importance, v little strategic importance.
All factors v different to poultry industry.
So, wild birds make easy scapegoats. Readily blamed by arm-waving. (Yet I watch, too, for reports as Qinghai birds move south. My guess: h5n1 will have burned out amongst them by then. But, a guess.)Hi Jibidee:
Thanks again for post.
Maybe can also start new threads, here in bird flu and wild birds forum, or all our eggs in one basket, as it were.For the finches:
As I understand it, bird flu passed between birds via faeces. Seems to me a likely reason that mainly infects waterbirds, esp ducks, geese and swans: they swim (and many feed) in water they defecate in; birds like typical geese graze on grass they defecate on.
For songbirds, and especially forest birds, I’d reckon it far harder to come into such contact with bird faeces/diluted faeces – so less bird flu. (A paper I cited in info and links page showed something like this).
Indeed, as mentoned in paper cited in next post, by monkeyes2, no songbirds found with h5n1 during outbreaks in HK parks (at Kowloon Park, I’ve watched munias – small finches – feeding on grain put out for the captive ducks, yet even they were evidently uninfected).So, with infection of finches – esp a lot of finches – unlikely, plus no known h5n1 for thousands of km, no hint of it being nearer (no likely h5n1 caused waterbird deaths in NZ, say), I believe testing superfluous.
Martin
Not sure re this albatross.
But read of a “bird race” involving albatrosses – to draw attention to their plight, inc many dying as bycatch from longline fishing.
Transmitters attached to 18 albatrosses, which set off in the “race” in May. All transmissions now lost, as all birds evidently died.
Of course, on the Agonist there would be no doubt re h5n1 being the culprit; but really, look to landlining for major cause, and discount flu.Model Jerry Hall’s albatross wins the Big Bird Race – on National Geographic site, reporting mid July.
All albatrosses dead in transoceanic race – later report on Mongabay.com
(Yes, indeed, would seem some justice if birds struck back after all we do to them.
But I remember a Russian conservationist on tv, remarking that we need nature, nature has no need for us.)for other visitors: Jibidee asked re closure of Mai Po in spring 94.
My reply:
Yes, Mai Po was closed for a month or so – by govt as some sort of precaution, even tho no bird flu there. (I thought this ridiculous, but figured it maybe helped birds a little; less chance of someone introducing bird flu somehow).
I was helping a guy do some filming, and we had permission to enter; at one point, I waded knee-deep in water of a pond used by hundreds of wild ducks – reckoned there would be bird flu of regular sort in the water, but not the farm bred h5n1.
