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Genoa, 18 Oct. (AKI) – Italian customs police have confiscated 3,000
chickens, 36,000 duck eggs and 260 frozen ducks illegally imported from
China.Checking whether eggs can harbour virus, I quickly find (with Google):
Bird flu virus found in 45 eggs at Chinese airport checkpoint – about H5N1 found in eggs from chickens, ducks and geese, flown from Vietnam to Guangzhou, in May this year.
Quote:Passengers flying from Vietnam to Guangzhou, China, were carrying eggs infected with the bird (avian) flu H5N1virus, say Chinese officials. Officials say they have detected a total of 45 infected eggs from two separate flights. This is the first case of infected eggs in a Chinese airport in two years.Officials were concerned because the eggs came from a variety of birds (chicken, goose and duck) and two separate flights. Many are wondering how many have got through.
The whole area has been disinfected (where the eggs were).
plus, of course, the virus need not be in the eggs – can be on the shells, from faeces
Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/10/24 12:07
Article by Carl Zimmer – TAMING PATHOGENS: AN ELEGANT IDEA, BUT WILL IT WORK? – mentions some criticisms of evolutionary biology and pathogens, but doesn’t seem they are by any means watertight. Includes:
Quote:Ewald complains … the critics … leave out a crucial component of his work, for example, the mode by which a disease infects new hosts. If hosts become so sick they can’t move, a parasite can only infect other people who come close, unless a vector such as a mosquito can transport it. This factor is crucial in Ewald’s explanation of Spanish flu. … "My argument was that at the Western Front you had conditions in which people who were completely immobilized could contact hundreds or thousands of people." Sick soldiers were moved on stretchers to triage areas, then to makeshift hospitals, then onto crowded trains. In these conditions, a flu virus could devastate its host but still infect vast numbers of people. "My argument was that we wouldn’t see a 1918 pandemic arise unless we duplicated this situation which occurred on the Western Front," says Ewald.– relevant to birds, too. Poultry farms can become "disease factories" (as Wendy Orent puts it); but in the wild, bird flus are mild, because Dead Ducks Don’t Fly.
Quote:Genoa, 18 Oct. (AKI) – Italian customs police have confiscated 3,000 chickens, 36,000 duck eggs and 260 frozen ducks illegally imported from China.Thanks for this, Lewis; helps show that trade, inc illegal, can move this flu.
S China Morning Post reports today include:
8 of 46 birds tested in shipment of 1037 being smuggled to Taiwan from mainland China positive for H5N1. 19 species in all, for pet shop; inc hill mynahs, black-naped orioles and Pekin robins (red-billed leiothrix). [With the mynah rather restricted range in China, I wonder if some from se Asia originally?]Just heard on Hong Kong radio:
Taiwan just confirmed first case of bird flu, in batch of birds smuggled from mainland China.Helen’s prompt reply:
Quote:That made me laugh!I thought about sending you a copy of the piece, but it slipped my mind. Should have known if someone was maligning birds you would see it!
You are in a dwindling club, I am afraid. Your fellow bird folk are very worried.
I shall stay tuned,
Helen
– and mine to this:
Quote:I’m worried too; but don’t believe all’s certain yet.
Conjuring X-Files Birds is a bit like having fudge factors in physics, for gaps in knowledge that can’t be explained.
Could also moot X-Files Traders, with cheep poultry (vaccinated?) from areas hit by h5n1.Watching with immense interest as we move towards end of autumn (mid to end of next month), when more cold tolerant geese, swans etc into winter quarters. If wild birds really spreading it around, surely should be plenty more outbreaks with strong links to wild birds; till now, a great many birds have moved, across great swathe of Eurasia, but outbreaks v few.
All the best,
MartinHi Candy:
Many thanks for posting this.
I’ve emailed Helen (who earlier did piece inc me saying re dead birds don’t fly):
Quote:A species no one has ever found – hahaha, X-Files fans rejoice!With foot-n-mouth in 2001, the disease made it from UK to continental Europe by transport unknown (Wikipedia) – no one invoked mysterious flying cow relatives.
One bird flu case (in US?) was, I’m told, traced to poultry crates w droppings being transported hundreds of km.H5N1 now in western Russia – so not 2000km.
More data needed.
Yours undefeated (till that X-Files Bird is found!),
MartinI should add that h5n1 been shown to be lethal in range of birds (partly thanks to ornamental/zoo collections) – inc swans, geese, ducks (major regular, wild bird flu carriers – and apparently unaffected by these viruses), plus flamingoes, crows, birds of prey…
– also kills tigers, civets, humans, mice; so even excluding birds, nothing yet found the h5n1 variant can’t kill (a significant proportion of).
(There have been asymptomatic domestic ducks found in Vietnam; maybe not same strain as to Europe, and not clear if this spreads. Recent outbreak just killed domestic ducks there.)
– so I’m sceptical there is such a species.Plus, for all the hooha in Europe, here in Asia we’ve so far got far fewer outbreaks than over 2003/04.
More data, more results; less hasty conclusions (eg Helen B’s article seemingly done before western Russia outbreaks reported [when did they start; tough to know real details like this])Martin
Tests now positive; also for a turkey on a Greek island.
Help show re making premature judgements, I guess; but not good otherwise.Here’s email I’ve just sent a science writer, doing piece re h5n1 and wild birds; she asked me to comment on a couple of ProMed postings.
Where does OIE have info to support notion wild birds can carry h5n1 for long time, without ill effects?
(True, within a population rather than individuals, for regular wild bird flus – not this poultry flu unless OIE have info I haven’t seen.)Evidence is to the contrary.
We’ve seen birds inc geese, swans, ducks, die of h5n1. (Even flamingoes; also peregrines – which you’d figure are highly bird flu resistant as prey on birds inc ducks)
Despite extensive testing, eg 7000 birds in HK last year, I’m yet to see confirmed reports of seemingly healthy wild birds with h5n1. (Might be a few I’ve missed; the Thai results just maybe – but odd; sparrows, mynas not normally migratory birds [as reported in the Nation] – I figure latter most likely to have fed around farms w infected chickens.)
OIE sending team to Russia to look for these hypothetical “healthy” wild bird vectors.
Until they’re found, they are making baseless allegations. Show, I think, more a political judgement than science.Webster has found asymptomatic domestic ducks in Vietnam. Was this same strain as migrants at Qingha?i – no.
Otherwise, seems that have to have a form of h5n1 that can kill wild birds, killing range of species; yet mysteriously becomes benign to them so they can transmit (not making apparent impact among even populations of wild birds [we’re not seeing lots of birds dying so a few can make it along migration routes] – I’ve seen, for instance, email saying many waterfowl have passed thro Lithuania without apparent ill effects; Nial likewise re maybe a million waterfowl already to S Korea; ducks so far to Hong Kong all look fine thank you very much.)Virus shedding shown to happen from non-dying ducks for up to 17 days. That’s way longer than period since main outbreaks in Russia.
Why is spread by trade unlikely just because fighting cocks not involved?
With foot and mouth, can get plenty of spread, even when supposed controls in place (eg wikipedia article on foot and mouth in 2001 – some reached continent from UK).This just posted to Oriental Bird Club; interesting, I think. I’d figured on, say, some birds scavenging on chicks/chickens dying of h5n1; maybe birds feeding together with infected poultry (if, say, poultry roam fields or on ponds visited by wild birds ); by Norman D.van Swelm:
Quote:There is no stopping unproven accusations by the press now it seems, today’s
BBC TV reports regarding bird flu in Rumania were loaded with them and shots
of a dead juvenile Pelican and flying flocks of adult Pelicans must clearly
tell who is the culprit.If migrant birds come into contact with sick poultry how long will it take
before the infected bird becomes ill. During an outbreak of poultry flu in
The Netherlands some years ago migrant ducks were immediately blamed to be
the cause of the outbreak. The Ministry of Agriculture claimed wild birds
were known to be carriers of the virus but were themselves immune however
they were clearly still able to infect poultry. Later the most likely cause
of the outbreak appeared to be a migrant chicken which arrived from Italy by
car. As far as I am aware no infected wild bird was ever found at the time!Nevertheless it is important to register instances where and how wild birds
come into contact with poultry and to assess the risks involved for either
of them. In Bahrain, poultry farms are popular birding spots. I went there
on several occasions, the situation is that in the backyard at some distance
of the main buildings manure is being dumped as well as dead chickens. Such
dumps attract plenty wild birds in particular waders such as Ruff, Curlew
Sandpiper, Dunlin but also Cattle Egrets, House Sparrows, Wagtails etc.
Clearly this is a situation whereby wild birds can become infected by
poultry and vice versa. Chicken manure from poultry farms is commonly used
in agriculture and spread out over vast areas in Europe and in theory wild
birds could come in to contact with poultry diseases.Best regards – and Aargh!
MartinHi Janeice:
With proviso: I’m a birder, not disease doc.
I think [not certain, not re-reading paper just now] the mice were injected with vaccine. If such injected mice got into homes, maybe their faeces could carry virus, so if these can enter food, or otherwise perhaps to mouths (children touching surfaces, maybe), maybe virus could enter people – but even then, it’s a poultry flu and we’re not chickens.That said: after all the poultry infections in China, surely many mice (and rats) have been in vicinity of, sometimes in contact with, infected chickens and their droppings. Yet no records I know of, of wild mice/rats with H5N1.
MartinWonder re Osterholm, too, for all his credentials; here he is quoted in December 2001:
Quote:Saddam Hussein has vast quantities of anthrax and it’s known Iraq also has smallpox virus warehoused, said Osterholm.Bioterrorism expert Osterholm warns against national complacency
hadn’t heard re the swans
Quote:"All the virological tests carried out to date in Romania have failed to identify the presence of the avian influenza virus. Every day that passes … reassures us that avian influenza is not in fact present in Romania," EU Commission spokesman Philip Tod told reporters. "We hope in light of that report … to conclude … that avian influenza is not present in Romania," he added.Not sure what he’s correct about. Wild birds spread notion still looks highly tenuous (Philippines dot on his map proven premature – now said to be bad antibiotics for a non-viral disease; leaves rest of map looking v bare re recent outbreaks. Maybe Danube Delta from migr birds; maybe. But migr birds have been through many more places than this. For Indonese, Thailand, local origin most likely).
As to rest of the stuff that formed basis of start of this thread. If Niman correct in one of his main items of baloney, we’d now be well into major human to human h5n1 pandemic, that started by beginning of April – and no longer looking at wild birds spread, but instead worrying re human to human spread, and maybe doing our best to save ourselves (with streets around us knee-deep in bodies).
Instead, still wondering how to save us from Nimanism. :silly:Hi Andy:
If wild birds could speak for themselves, I’d be happy to leave Niman as Niman, whatever that means. As they can’t, there’s a gross lack of balance here – and no scientist/purported scientist other than Niman is pushing the wild birds as vectors notion. (Robert Webster to tiny extent; I’ve emailed Stu Jude’s querying a silly quote by him, but no reply re this quote [was it wrong, or just silliness direct from him?])
I’ve spent but a tiny fraction of the energy Niman has expended attacking wild birds – for no apparent reason other than it makes a good story that helps raise his profile.
If just a few people think twice or more before looking at Niman’s notions, maybe some broader help too (cf anon physician above – might tell less scary info to patients).
Trust you’re glad you’re not about to be among knee deep piles of bodies within a couple of weeks, tho it’s kind of you to be not aggrieved at being had by one of Niman’s other fanciful tales of doom.
Martin
Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/10/01 02:50
Maybe also relevant from article on Intelligent Design "debate":
Quote:But Miller said his key concern is that "non-scientific ideas are finding a voice from political and cultural leaders who are unable to support them on scientific terms." The problem goes beyond the evolution versus intelligent design debate, he said. "Many public policy decisions rely on sound science. The more we allow pseudo-scientific ideas a hearing, the more we place ourselves in peril when it comes to decisions about global warming and a host of other environmental and biomedical matters," Miller said. "There is the increasing danger of 'faith-based politics' that fails to heed scientific evidence in the public square."Hope you’ve read at least the first post here, re Niman; if you want to trust him after this, well….
[Yes, he’s prolific with posts and boasts. Empty vessels make the most noise?]For facts and interpretations, you’re best using sources such as WHO and CDC websites, also ProMed mailings etc, and papers/communications in real publications.
Wendy Orent’s recent article in New Republic (needs subscription) maybe worth a read; stems partly from work by Ewald, the subject of another thread here on disease evolution. (Says the 1918 flu was product of First World War conditions; don’t have right conditions for such a dangerous flu today.) Others may argue, but food for thought, and maybe reason to be less fearful.
Related article – mentioning flu evolution and comparisons with 1918 – argues Fear is more likely to get you than the avian flu
Hi Chris:
Glad you find this board informative.
While my doctorate’s in physical chemistry, and my main expertise of relevance to this issue is in migratory birds in e Asia, I’ll attempt an answer – as not too many people arrive at this forum.
Mosquito transmission seems massively unlikely to me. AIDS, say, common in areas with mozzies, yet mosquito transmission never mooted that I’ve seen. For malaria, say, needs remarkable evolution of the pathogen, so not only ingested, but also excreted (in saliva) as mosquito bites.
Flu not transmitting this way – were it so, then evolutionary biology notions by Ewald (another thread here mentions) would suggest flu would become very dangerous, and stay so (not just h5n1).H5N1 has caused a range of symptoms in humans, with encepalitis evidently rare. So, with so many cases in India, should also have pneumonia and so on, major red flags warning of h5n1; that plus they know Jap encephalitis from experience, plus h5n1 never known in India suggests to me it’s Jap encephalitis.
Martin
Interesting to see Niman say:
Quote:He is using ProMed as a forum to publish his positions which have no scientific basis. He should have been removed some time ago. He is an embarassment to ProMed and the scientific community.To some folk, could be that if repeat this statement but with “Recombinomics” instead of “ProMed”, could apply even better to another cyber scribe. :cheer:
Sorry, don’t know how to help here.
i’ve had some problem with mambo templates – with 4.5.2.3, tried some templates but found pages didn’t display properly, maybe with missing stuff.
My only solution was to switch templates, till found one that worked ok (and maybe adapt a bit).Perhaps ask template author?
Just come across article in French (in which I get a mention), re arguments against notion wild birds spreading h5n1.
Grippe aviaire: interrogation sur le rôle des oiseaux migrateurs
After WHO director (I think – Lee) seemed to casually blame wild birds for spreading potential pandemic all around – and making headlines for doing so – here’s a more considered, far less headline making view. Buried in a Reuters Alertnet story, World has slim chance to stop bird flu pandemic
Quote:Dr Hitoshi Oshitani, the man who was on the frontline in the battle against SARS and now leads the fight against avian flu in Asia. "SARS in retrospect was an easy virus to contain," said Oshitani, the World Health Organisation’s Asian communicable diseases expert. … Avian flu has moved west from Asia and into Russia, with many fearing migratory wild birds will spread the virus to Europe and possibly the United States via Alaska. But Oshitani casts doubt on the impact migratory birds are having on the spread of avian flu, saying different sub-types of the H5N1 virus are in Asia and Russia. "There are so many uncertainties about the pandemic. We don’t know how it will start. We don’t know exactly how it is spreading," he said.Despite Niman’s sterling attempts to tout stocks in Ligand Pharmaceuticals (after all – though he did not note in all his enthusiastic posts – he was involved in starting it, evidently had/has shares), it’s performance when he was a promoter was hardly stellar.
Well, no one can accuse Niman of being unimaginative, or being unable to see the potential for a story that might garner publicity.
A Reuters Alertnet item headedPoor Asian farmers are weak link in bird flu fight includes:
Quote:"We need to realise that there is very little incentive for farmers to report suspected outbreaks," said Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO regional director for the Western Pacific, which covers 37 Asian and Pacific nations. "In fact, fear that their flocks might be culled without compensation is a pretty strong disincentive to report an outbreak," said Omi at the opening of the WHO Western Pacific annual conference in Noumea, capital of New Caledonia in the South Pacific.– which will help cloud the real situation with h5n1. (Add secrecy by at least some officials, and picture indeed pretty muddled. But, it seems wild birds always ready as scapegoats!)
err, your point being?
– no excuses here for inventing stuff about bird migrations to suit the story about wild birds spreading h5n1. As all looking for truth here will appreciate.
From all I’ve seen, the variants of H5N1 causing all concern now traced to sample from a Guangdong farm goose, 1996 – not long before the first human cases/deaths. (so, had it been circulating a while, undetected or unreported?)
Martin
Thanks again, Lewis.
Hadn’t realised the bike race was such a huge event.
So, competitors from Russia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia I presume. But, from the locales with outbreaks – like Chany Lake, Erkhel (or nearby)?I still wonder; would these people really come into contact with poultry flocks in Qinghai area (seems wild bird outbreak restricted to reserve), or contact with infected material?
(Or might there have been poultry/eggs at good prices?)Thanks for link to the Canada report – shows bird flu spread can be complex issue.
Too bad that there’s so little info from the recent outbreaks.Happily, though, outbreaks ebbing – to me, further indicating wild birds aren’t key vectors.
Martin
Hi Liu Yang:
Thanks for the post (and for Tattler info).
I came across Alister’s photos by accident recently (checking pbase); some great shots.
Martin
Hi Anon:
I’ve been told Niman was a surgery instructor (close to being a lab technician?) at Harvard Medical School.
Google reveals a few results saying he was this; inc one from Science Mag (for which I’m now just seeing abstract).
Whether he was there a couple of minutes only, or a bit more, I dunno, nor do I know re other points you raised. Niman does not make this clear on his Recombinomics site.If you’d like to come forward with more detailed info, I’m sure people with some interest in Niman (and his theories re bioterrorist pigs, H5N1 and Ebola in Sichuan etc) would appreciate this.
Indeed, further info on Henry Niman could be of interest; picture I’ve discovered is somewhat confused.
(I’ve also seen him described as professor Niman from Harvard; quite wrong, as I understand it.)
Cheers,
MartinPost edited by: martin, at: 2005/09/10 16:16
Hi Lewis:
Thanks for the post.
Hmm, without more info such as on bike race route, timings and how these correlate with the outbreaks, I’d wonder about this.
As for smuggling – seems possible to me. I’ve read that bird flu virus can survive up to 100 days in poultry excrement. Not sure, though, just what this in turn could be carried on.
Martin
