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- Quote:Those of us who have been studying avian influenza and other bird diseases for decades, when few people beside pet owners and the poultry industry cared, are dismayed that voices of reason are being drowned out with regard to the role played by wild birds in the spread of the H5N1 virus. This past week alone, both the United Nations and the Office of Homeland Security implicated migratory birds as the most likely carriers of H5N1 to American shores, while cable news scrambled to get bird migration maps. Migratory fowl could, of course, bring H5N1 here on the wing. But there is an equal, if not greater, chance that H5N1 will fly to North America on an airplane transporting poultry legally or otherwise.
Recently a shipment of chicken feet was smuggled into the United States from Thailand, arriving in Connecticut marked "jellyfish." Luckily, our trade surveillance system worked and the chicken parts were confiscated. Over the last 30 years we have learned a tremendous amount about how avian influenza spreads. In nature, avian influenza viruses live innocuously in many types of wild birds and cause only mild effects, sometimes none at all, similar to many bacteria and viruses that live in humans.
This is not to say that the virus can't be carried by, and kill, wild birds, because it can. Yet the spread of H5N1 did not result from the activities of wild birds, but from a very human activity – trade. We know that international trade in wild or exotic birds, both legal and illegal, has helped moved H5N1 around the world. However, the virus has likely gotten its biggest boost through the trade, both legal and illegal, in poultry. As part of a multi-billion dollar industry, poultry markets and farms span the globe. The conditions of these facilities vary greatly; some are plagued by highly unsanitary conditions and close bird-to-bird contact. This environment provides the ideal setting for deadly strains of the avian flu virus to develop.
Moving these infected poultry and poultry products as well as contaminated fecal matter on trucks, boots or in cages results in the further spread of avian flu. The current focus on the role of migratory birds in the spread of H5N1 has shifted discussion away from this trade. … (Robert Cook is chief veterinarian and vice president and William B. Karesh is director of the Field Veterinary Program at the Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx Zoo, New York.)
Don't blame the wild birds
Just found map showing eastern flyway for Siberian crane.
As vast majority of the Sibes winter at Poyang, this is also useful as map of flyway for Poyang winter birds; though other species follow broader/somewhat different routes (eg, white-naped crane might follow fairly tight routes, but most not along coast; swan goose also mainly migrating inland – but not heading off way to west [unless you believe – as certain virologists just might – that they change species en route, becoming bar-headed geese]).http://www.sibeflyway.org/Map-Eastern-web.html
Sent URL to Robert Webster, suggesting this is rather different route to his Tooth Fairy Bird.
Quote:… Webster’s statement is the latest Hitchcockian pronouncement about H5N1 bird flu, a virus that is deadly in birds. But humans are different. We are protected by a species barrier, and serological surveys conducted in 1997 in Hong Kong and since have detected antibodies in thousands of humans who never got sick, showing that bird flu isn’t as deadly to the few who come in contact with it as has been reported.
In fact, the growing immunity to H5N1 worldwide may lessen the outbreak in humans even if the dreaded mutation does occur. As time passes, the chances of this mutation appear less rather than more likely. (The Spanish flu, by comparison, mutated before killing a lot of birds.)
If H5N1 takes hold in pigs and exchanges genetic material with another flu virus, the result is likely to be far less deadly. The swine flu fiasco of 1976 is an example of the damage that can be done from fear of a mutated virus that can theoretically affect us. More than 1,000 cases of paralysis occurred from a rushed vaccine given to more than 40 million people in response to a pandemic that never came.
Why provoke the public to see a potential pandemic in end-of-the-world terms? A pandemic simply means people in several areas having a disease at the same time — but it may be hundreds rather than millions. The last flu pandemic, in 1968, killed 33,800 Americans, which is about the flu’s toll in an average year. We don’t need to panic in advance for that kind of pandemic.
Cooking poultry kills any flu 100 percent of the time, yet the fear of H5N1 bird flu is already so out of control in Europe that 46 countries have banned French poultry exports after a single turkey was found to be infected. France, fourth in the world in poultry exports, is already hemorrhaging more than $40 million a month.
Imagine what would happen if a bird in the United States gets H5N1 bird flu. At the rate we are going, the fear of birds will be so great that our own poultry industry, number one in the world, is likely to be in shambles. We already have this problem with mad cow disease, where a single sick cow that is not even in the food chain makes people very nervous, despite the fact that it is almost impossible to get mad cow disease from eating beef.
Flu is worthy of our concern. But concern can lead to long term preparation whereas panic can be far more virulent and costly than the bird flu itself.
Dr. Marc Siegel, associate professor of medicine at NYU School of Medicine, is author of ”False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear.”For news re H5N1 in Turkey, also map showing affected areas:
Bird flu pages: http://openturkey.com/main/bird_flu
Turkey avian flu detected cities map: http://openturkey.com/main/turkey_bird_flu_detected_cities_map
Quote:Robert G. Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?
…If the virus does mutate, it does not necessarily mean it will be as deadly to people as it is to birds. But experts such as Webster say they must prepare for the worst.
“I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations,” said Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak.
Frightening Warning
“Society just can’t accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility,” Webster said. “I’m sorry if I’m making people a little frightened, but I feel it’s my role.”Most scientists won’t put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans, even though they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.
Renowned Bird Flu Expert Warns: Be Prepared
Looks like it’s time some folk in white coats came to round up dear Robert, so he can head off to join the Tooth Fairy Bird.
All that flu hunting seems to have left him believing in magical mutations, yet bypassed by even scant knowledge of natural selection.Still, media can continue producing titillating articles on Mr Neutron Flu – it really, honestly is the most dangerous disease on the planet.
17 March article by Marc Siegel criticises Webster silliness:
Quote:“… I’m sorry if I’m making people a little frightened, but I feel it’s my role.”I disagree. As one of the top flu experts in the world, Webster’s role is to track influenza in the test tube, not to make sweeping speculations that are not based on science and do far more harm than good. By his estimate, we should be destroying every bird in the world right now before we all perish in a pool of pathogens.
Post edited by: martin, at: 2006/03/17 08:35
Ekologi: the destruction of crows in the city will lead to the dominance of the rats
The defenders of wild nature speak against the destruction of crows
in the Russian cities. Let us recall that the previously similar
method of fight with the bird influenza proposed the main sanitary
doctor of the country gennadi onishchenko. He said that “the crows
must be mercilessly destroyed”, because “crow – is the feathered
wolf”, that eats up carrion, including wild bird, and it can become
the source of the spread of bird influenza. The defenders of nature
assert that this it is not possible to make. “if we destroy all crows
in the city, then the dominance of the rats, that are the peddlers of
many infections, will begin, and in this sense they are much more
dangerous than crows”, it stated to journalists the colleague of the
center of the protection of wild nature Irina travina.Furthermore, to get rid of the stir around the theme issued a call
the minister of agriculture of Russia. Minister called “to the
calmness” and he stated about the need of creating the special
“staff” at the Russian level, which could extend the specific
recommendations about how avoid bird influenza as fight with its
penetration to the territory of the country.“Migratory birds are probably the least likely way avian flu is going to enter the Western hemisphere,” says Peter Marra, a bird ecologist at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C.
The more likely route into the USA, he says, is through the pet trade and the movement of poultry, legally or illegally. “Migratory birds are innocent bystanders,” Marra says. “I don’t doubt (they’re) moving the virus. I just don’t think they’re the primary movers.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2006-03-07-bird-migration_x.htm
Quote:Vietnam’s poultry sector has been ravaged by bird flu, but a lull in infections has left producers divided on whether to slow down or forge ahead and revolutionise the industry. Some experts and corporate survivors of the disease that tore through backyard chicken farms here say now is the time to invest in modern integrated operations that promise more safety for workers and consumers.A shift from family chicken coups to cutting edge factory farms would make both public health and business sense, said Tony Forman, avian influenza technical adviser for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Vietnam. "Groups prepared to invest in biosecure facilities in breeding, animal feed, slaughter houses and food processing may achieve a high level of return on their investment," he told AFP. Since late 2003, Vietnam has been the ground zero of the bird flu crisis. Of the 97 known human deaths worldwide, 42 occurred in the communist country, leading to bans on poultry sales and the slaughter of tens of millions of birds. … But as the disease has spread to Europe and Africa this northern winter, a three-month lull in reported animal outbreaks in Vietnam and four months free of human cases here have raised cautious hopes that the worst may be over.
The guarded optimism comes after the sector took a heavy hit. Aside from the human cost, bird flu took a high toll on the businesses of farmers, butchers and retailers, both small and large. US food giant Cargill has closed a local chicken facility and slowed animal feed production. "We will reconsider getting back into that activity if the market gets better in future," said Truong Chanh, head of Cargill in Vietnam. Animal feed market leader Proconco — a Vietnamese subsidiary of the French group EMC that has actually turned a profit amid the crisis by shifting to feed for pigs and aquaculture — is now torn between doubt and optimism. "Sales started again in January," said Michel Boudrot, general manager of Proconco. "The next months should not be so bad."
But at least one producer, Thai company Charoen Pokphand (CP), has voiced enthusiasm and insists that now is the time to invest heavily. The company, which says it already controls 80 percent of industrial poultry production in Vietnam, plans to double output to a million chicken per week by the end of the year. "CP will succeed in turning a crisis into an opportunity of development," says Sooksunt Jiumjaiswanglerg, president of CP Vietnam Livestock. "We anticipate 30 percent growth of turnover each year," said Sooksunt, adding that the company also plans to open more than 100 new CP Fresh Mart shops this year and 200 to 300 Five Star roast chicken stalls. "That is how high our level of confidence in the future is," he said. The Thai group is the principal supplier of the fast-food chains KFC and Lotteria here, as well as of supermarket chain BigC (Casino), whose poultry sales have actually climbed since last May. "The customers pay great attention to health safety", said Christophe Varvier, food purchasing manager for BigC. He said since the crisis Vietnamese customers "buy more and more chickens processed by industries, cut up and conditioned on their premises, because they are less likely to be contaminated during transport."
In the long term, CP wants to control the entire process, from egging to sales — a drastic shift in a country where birds now tend to be transported on motorbikes before being hand-slaughtered with a hachet on a wooden block. The government will eventually promote the industrialization of the sector, said Patrice Gautier, Vietnam coordinator of Veterinarians Without Borders, with real results likely "perhaps in five or 10 years". But the shift will come at a price, Gautier predicted. "It’s hard to tell what will become of the small breeders," he said. "Will they have to find an alternative way to make money?"
Does bird flu cloud have silver lining for Vietnam’s poultry sector?
[url=http://www.lapresse.ch/vqhome/le_journal/economie/usine_poulet_130306.edition=nv
.html]The H5N1 will support the chicken factories[/url]
[“machine translation”]Quote:INTERVIEW Switzerland Samuel Jutzi is l’un directors of
l’Organisation of the United Nations for l’alimentation and
l’agriculture (FAO). It analyzes the consequences of the influenza
aviaire for the poultry producers and the consumers.To the head office of FAO, to Rome, Samuel Jutzi, directs division
livestock health and production. A station which places it in first
line in the battle against virus H5N1 that FAO carries out on the
ground, mainly in the countries deprived of effective veterinary
services.– Why the trade play does such a role in the propagation of the
influenza aviaire?– Quite simply because the avicolous sector became a sector
globalized par excellence! Since a score of years, in the whole
world, he knows a spectacular growth and incredibly industrialized
himself. The weight of the exchanges does not cease increasing. For
this reason the poultry trade explains in good part the expansion of
the disease, in spite of strict medical rules on a world level.– And its origin? Does the mass production offer a ground favorable
to the virus?– Not. It is necessary to distinguish between the density of
poultries in an area and the number of poultries in the industrial
companies. These last can be protected effectively from the viruses.
Actually applied, the safety requirements of these complexes offer a
high degree of protection. For a virus, the best conditions of
development they are the family breedings with a strong density of
poultries.– A to hear you, the future they are the factories with poulets…
– There is D E any manner a tendency to industrialization encouraged
by the economy. In Europe, the near total of the production is done
already in an intensive way, the developing countries follow the same
evolution. Current epizooty still will accelerate the movement since
the poultries can be better protected in these protected artificial
environments. Other side of the coin: the races will be fewer and
that will lead to the standardization.– And farm chickens? They will be soon nothing any more but one good
memory?– Not, but this type of production will be very minority. The
poultries of great quality, high in the open air and nourished with
the grain will become products of niche. In Europe, one wants to
continue to produce them, but for that it is necessary to find the
means of protecting them from epizooties. It is one of the reasons
for which France tries out the vaccination targeted in certain areas.
Because it is known that after this influenza aviaire which is spread
on planet, there will be other epizooties. In a globalized world, it
is difficult to escape from it.[“machine translation”]
[url=http://www.lapresse.ch/vqhome/le_journal/economie/usine_poulet_130306.edition=nv
.html]The H5N1 will support the chicken factories[/url]INTERVIEW Switzerland Samuel Jutzi is l’un directors of
l’Organisation of the United Nations for l’alimentation and
l’agriculture (FAO). It analyzes the consequences of the influenza
aviaire for the poultry producers and the consumers.To the head office of FAO, to Rome, Samuel Jutzi, directs division
livestock health and production. A station which places it in first
line in the battle against virus H5N1 that FAO carries out on the
ground, mainly in the countries deprived of effective veterinary
services.– How this epidemic could become such extensive?
– It is still a mystery! Frankly, when the disease was declared
practically at the same time in ten country, c’ was a surprise. One
thought of the migratory birds but, at the time, their routes did not
correspond to the extension of the disease. Today, it is supposed
that it is the poultry trade which propagated the disease at its
beginnings in Asia.– And elsewhere in the world?
– last year, the assumption of the migratory birds re-appeared for
the extension of the disease towards the west, but there are still
many uncertainties. As for the arrival of the disease in Nigeria, the
most probable assumption, it is that of illegal poultry imports, even
if the migrating ones perhaps also played a role.Whilst the Tooth Fairy Bird – the wild bird(s) that can survive and sustain and spread H5N1 – remains a theoretical creature, which has taken hold in the popular imagination and the brains of various journalists, the “experts” who believe in it are still virus people rather than ornithologists.
Instead, people who actually know about wild birds still doubt its existence.French League for the Protection of Birds article here – machine translation.
http://www.protection-des-animaux.org/actualites/archives-512.html
The migratory birds are not the “rats of the sky”Regarded too often as principal vectors of the H5N1, the wild birds
are transformed little by little into “rats of the sky”. The LPO
condemns this detrimental process with regard to an extremely
fragile. It biodiversity makes a point of pointing out the major
role played by the illegal transport of wild or domestic birds in
this file.Some mesestimees realities
The wintering of the birds in Africa
During the summer 2005, whereas migratory birds of contaminated zones
(Siberia, Asia), were on the point of leaving their surfaces of
nesting for their districts of wintering, in Africa, with the
Middle-East, but also towards Australia, one predicted the emergence
of new hearths aviaires on these various destinations, and the
hecatomb of many wild birds to us. Actually, it does not have of it
anything be, in Africa but also in Australia and Nouvelle Zealand.Nigeria
The confirmation, February 08, 2006, of the flu virus aviaire H5N1 in
Nigeria concerned, initially and exclusively, of the industrial
breedings of birds. To date, in Nigeria, no contaminated wild bird
was found. It cannot be excluded that the original tank of these
hearths is the poultry trade coming from China and Turkey. According
to the laboratory of reference of the animal World Health
Organization (OMSA) and Funds’ of the United Nations for the food and
agriculture (FAO), the stock isolated from the virus in Nigeria shows
the same genetic characteristics as that discovered in Turkey, which
itself are connected with the stock of the Chinese lake of the
province of Qinqhai, hearth of origin of the disease. *Spain
February 15, 2006 in Benidorm, in the province of Alicante in Spain,
2 tons of poultries were seized. Imported illegally of China, they
were conveyed in Spain by truck. It seems that their final
destination was to be Chinese restaurants.These poultry movements can take part seriously in the diffusion of
the virus through the countries and even the continents. They show
the importance of the frontier checks to dismantle illegal networks
of trade. This while at the same time “universalization processed
chicken in cash migrating and the movements of chickens around the
world occur 365 days per annum, unlike the seasonal migrations of the
wild birds” to take again the assertion of Leon Bennun, director of
international Birdlife.Traffic of the birds of ornament
The illegal trade of the birds of ornament bound for France is
currently estimated at more than 4 million individuals each year.
This figure also corresponds to the number of legally marketed birds,
which represents nearly 8 million birds in all.Among the sought birds, one notes that many sparrows are originating
in South Asia east and China, while the parrots come mainly from West
Africa and Tanzania. In the same way, other species come from South
America.Consequently, without denying the possible role of the migratory
birds, the LPO stresses that, in spite of the put regulation opens
some to manage the crisis, it appears obvious that the involuntary
non-observance of measurements of precaution must also be taken into
account in the analysis of the situation.Allain Bougrain Dubourg President of the LPO
Post edited by: martin, at: 2006/03/12 08:03
Had a bit of correspondence lately with Canadian medical reporter Helen Branswell – some time ago she interviewed me for story on wild birds and H5N1; more recently written of "avian equivalent of the stealth bomber" spreading H5N1 west from China. (A belief, then, in the Tooth Fairy Bird.)
Followed my sending her short email re Grain report on farming and H5N1; she replied saying thought it odd some conservationists still denying some role in the spread.
Here’s email I sent:
Quote:some birds playing some role, that they are one possible route of introduction of the virus to a new area" – I have not seen any ornithologists/conservationists dispute this. So far, remains only possible route, and all the attention on wild birds is excessive, and leading to problems – latest is region in Russia, about to shoot birds (near poultry farms?) said a news item a couple of days ago.Major conservation implications. Wild birds themselves have no voice, so people like me get active on their account – extremely unfair wild birds getting so much wrong blame for the poultry industry’s wrongs. see Grain report. Instead of wild birds, should be major questioning of FAO, and industrial farming.
But, FAO v loud – especially Domenech. And somehow media seems to love idea of wild birds carrying a disease that could kill us all. Beats Hitchcock, so to editors and some sensationalist writers (step forward Laurie Garrett), what’s not to like about that? A good story, so who cares about the details. Not sure if you do: I wrote such shorthand in previous email so as not to bombard you.
It is not scientific to just say "it must be stealth bomber birds". Not scientific at all.
We see vast exaggeration of wild birds as carriers, based on little more than supposition – and overlooking or ignoring the problems inherent in poultry industry: after all, without poultry industry, we would not have this virulent H5N1, nor a slew of other HPAIs in recent years.
"The AI scientists" – not all AI scientists. Karesh, assuming you mean Williams Karesh, not an AI scientist that I know of; tho done important work in field when need arose last summer. Work by him and his team among strong evidence "the disease is self-limiting in wild birds".
Curious your list appears to be all US people. Has Swayne, say, even worked in Asia? cf vet Les Sims, extensive experience in Asia, believes wild birds play only minor role in spread What of Guan Yi: no "expert" on AI, inc with his team’s pioneering research on virus in HK/China? Quoted saying wild birds scapegoats. Ken Shortridge, worked with Guan and co before, co-authored paper in Lancet, showing wild birds not key vectors for 2003/04.
Why do you not think when discussing H5N1 and wild birds that it’s not important to consider views views of ornithologists with some or detailed knowledge of migratory species, timings, routes etc? – when examine various cases n some detail, the story re wild birds as spreaders becomes weak or highly improbable. Niman manages this ignorance; but hardly science. "it doesn’t kill some duck specie" – not true. Situation is more complex than this.
All I’ve seen: some strains highly lethal to ducks (check out species list on USGS website), some strains may kill small percentages. Less lethal strains were excreted in low amounts – so how are ducks going to transmit them? Sneezing and French kissing? Does seem domestic ducks in Thai rice fields play important role in sustaining H5N1 there. But in the wild?
One case with science: swans in Romania excreted little; birds sharing ponds with them not infected. Six apparently healthy wild ducks at a lake in e China had H5N1. But virus did not move in direction birds migrate from Poyang. Same paper: H5N1 has evolved distinct regional strains in China, Vietnam: major scientific evidence against wild birds being major carriers, yet overlooked. As yet, no cases of wild bird transmission to H5N1 known. Doesn’t mean that hasn’t happened – it’s hard to say for sure just what caused several outbreaks – but none certain, yet wild birds readily blamed. French turkeys had no contact with wild birds, yet they got it.
Again, wild birds a red herring for the most part: and by watching the skies for virus, when it arrives in other ways, could be just helping spread. I do believe wild birds – esp swans – flying around with H5N1; and dying of it in too many cases. Yes, sentinels; H5N1 is around. But where did they get infected? Looking like e Europe/Black Sea area for the most part. Might they even have been fed (dumped?) chicken feed? Contaminated feed thought to be behind at least one poultry outbreak in Russia. Mute swans tend to be tame, often residents. Looks like virus has been moved – by transport links – across Russia to Europe. Now infected wild birds, especially swans for some reason. Isn’t first time wild birds fingered.
With H5N1 2003/04, "wild birds" so often blamed – which is when I got interested and active, seeing that evidence was to contrary. Earlier blamed for HPAIs in US, 83/84; Netherlands for H7N7; Australia also. In all cases, wild birds said to be or thought maybe vectors, yet evidence showed they weren’t. I write from Hong Kong, which is surely at the epicentre of H5N1 in poultry and even humans, just down the road from first location for H5N1 of Guangdong goose 96 lineage.
Hong Kong lies on migration flyways; birds here from breeding grounds including northeast Asia, and Japan; some travel as far south as Australia, while many overwinter, including around 50,000 waterbirds in a relatively small wetland on northwest border w Shenzhen. Have been occasional cases of H5N1 in dead wild birds here. Extensive testing – 16,000 or more healthy birds tested at wetland, not one positive.
So, H5N1 has indeed proved self-limiting in wild birds here; no evidence wild waterbirds migrating through Hong Kong are carrying it.
Suppose you could visit this wetland, see all these birds in the heart of H5N1 territory, might you then have a slightly different viewpoint than from Canada?
Alas, Helen Branswell not to be swayed, and maybe a tad grouchy on day my email arrived:
Quote:Sadly, I believe my moment of epiphany is not near. The fine organization I work for has a limited travel budget, and somehow I think covering Canadian troops in Afghanistan is going to trump any proposal that I should trek through the marshes of Hong Kong so that I can fully appreciate how woefully I have maligned the birds of the world. In the interim, you may perhaps wish to read other writers. Good luck with your crusade.Too bad re sense of humour failure, repeated in a further email from Helen Branswell, with further dig re "crusades"; though at least her notion does suggest one possible Latin name for the Tooth Fairy Bird – Anas stealthbomberensis.
Just in case you haven’t seen this item of bird flu humor doing the rounds:
A bear, a lion and a chicken meet.
The bear says: “If I roar in the forests of North America, the entire forest is shivering with fear.”The Lion says: “And if I roar on the great plains of Africa, the entire savannah is afraid of me.”
The chicken says: “Big deal. I only have to cough, and the entire planet sh*ts itself.”
Looking like there are plans to halt bird nesting in places seen as dangerous for H5N1 in Russia. As pointed out in one of items here, this could well have unforeseen negative consequences.
Quote:The prepared By rospotrebnadzorom detailed plan of measures for the
preventive maintenance of bird influenza in the territory of Russia
has as a goal the non-admission of nesting migratory birds in the
territory RF. On this, as transmits correspondent IA regnum, stated
today, on 7 March, in Moscow the general director of the center of
the protection of wild nature of Aleksey zimenko.As noted Zimenko, an attempt at the interference of man in the
natural course of events can lead to the appearance of unforeseen
situations. Bird will begin to search for refuge, leaving the
customary places of nesting, podranki and dead birds they will be
reached to crows and by vagrant animal, which will become the reason
for the approximation of virus to settlings of people. The general
director of the center of the protection of wild nature reminded one
that entire koshachiye they were sensitive to the viruses. With
respect to dogs there are no such data as yet.Quote:The authorities of Novosibirskaya Oblast are intended not to allow in
spring nesting migratory birds in the territory of region.In the Novosibirskaya Oblast in the lake the vats – the millennial
natural incubator of young animals of migratory bird – with the
offensive of spring are intended to fire back and to frighten away by
noise of those arriving flying into the region from the warm it is
boundary feathered, which causes healthy skepticism in the hunters:
in the coastal reeds of vats millions of chickens, ducklings and
other young verdure of wild bird yearly are derived.The plenipotentiary representative of the President of Russia in SFO
Anatoliy kvashnin at the conference about the measures for the
prevention of bird influenza stated that it is necessary to clearly
determine all populated areas, which are been located next to the
reservoirs, on which was possible the contact of wild and poultry.[url=http://www.sibcity.ru/?news=3734&line=publish&page=0&PHPSESSID=9f9eba016054f30fc
d369cd]Provincial authorities are intended not to allow nesting the migratory birds[/url]Quote:in the dangerous places is important not to allow nesting wild birds
by all existing means, it assumes. – throughout the entire territory
of Russia the most probable direction of the spread of bird influenza
precisely from Siberia. Since precisely through the regions of West
Siberia goes the mass overflight of wild birds.seems reports coming from Russia are rather contradictory.
No shooting off of migratory birds in Russia to ward off avian flu
MOSCOW, March 7 (Itar-Tass) – There will be no shooting of migratory
birds in Russia as a measure to ward off avian flu, the general
director of the Center for Wildlife Protection said at a news
conference on Tuesday referring to instructions by the
Rospotrebnadzor consumer rights watchdog.“If we shoot off birds, we shall trigger an unpredictable scenario
of the epidemic with our own hands,” Alexei Zimenko said. “Birds
will start looking for quieter areas, while dead or wounded birds
will be a pray of predators and crows,” he added. This will only
contribute to the spread of the epidemic, the specialist emphasized.
Besides, the shooting operation would be very costly, he said.The president of the Russian Union for Bird Protection, Viktor
Zubakin, told the news conference that “ornithologists advise not to
open a wild fowl hunting season this year”. “One can contract the
virus when disjointing fowl,” he stressed.According to the Ministry for Emergency Situations, about 1.5 million
domestic birds have already died of bird flu in Russia. Alone 752,000
of them have died in February and early in March. A mass arrival of
migratory birds is expected later.Excerpt from a “machine translation” of an essay published in Germany:
Quote:It is similarly wrong and by nothing proven to assume that a swan infected
with bird flu could briefly feel the need before its end still to
land on a chicken yard how it is most improbable that migratory birds
empty themselves just over the yard and infect the unsolicited
chickens. For such procedures each concrete reference is missing,
even if Virologen in laboratory tests prove the infection ability of
bird excrement free of doubts.– quite right!!
Neue Pest, alte Angst – Essay [New plague, old fear – essay]
by Josef H. ReichholfPost edited by: martin, at: 2006/03/08 03:53
Quote:Berlin – A German scientist said Tuesday the entry of faeces from infected poultry into the food chain via fish was a likely cause of the global spread of bird flu – and not migrating wild birds.‘We are moving away from the assumption that migrating birds are the cause,’ said Josef H. Reichholf, a zoology professor at Munich’s Technical University, in a comment published by the newspaper Die Welt.
Reichholf said the spread of the virus from east to west did not follow the main routes of migratory birds and was also taking place at the wrong time of year.
Poultry faeces likely cause of bird flu spread, German expert says
Just seen that HK Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department now has pdf file for download, with H5N1 infections in birds this year. Useful; as well as species and dates, includes a map. Indeed shows broad pattern (tho v small data sample for being conclusive re pattern), with some infections New Territories, shift to Kowloon and HK Island. Also, indeed in "wlld" birds trend from songbirds (maybe inc captives?) towards corvids.
After magpie robin on 10 Jan, mainly from 26 January – just before Chinese New Year, with the Year of the Dog beginning on 29 January. No submissions since 25 Feb.
Quote:The plan of measures for opposition to the propagation of the virus
of bird influenza is affirmed in the Altai. As reports correspondent
IA regnum, in contrast to previous, into this plan much new is
introduced. Besides vaccination, it is intended to solve
spring-summer hunting the planktonic bird and to organize “noise
campaign” in order to frighten away migratory birds in the regions,
which find on the way of their migration. They assume that such
regions it will be 17.As they reported in the administration of veterinary science for
Altai edge, population will be drawn for creating the sound effects
“it will be possible to knock by buckets and sticks. The main thing –
to create the factor of uneasiness for the birds “, declare
veterinary surgeons.In order not to give to migratory birds to nest and to enter the
contact with the domestic feathered, they will solve hunting.
Furthermore, birds they will drive off by noise.spookily reminiscent of Mao’s campaign vs “sparrows” (one of “four evils”) – people then letting off firecrackers, banging on woks etc etc, even at night. [see, eg, Wild Swans book by Jung Chang]
In China, “sparrows” thought to be grain-eating pests. In practice of course, many birds killed. Led to surge in insect pests; Mao had to stop sparrow campaign.
“Learned ornithologists consider the shooting of birds useless (Saint Petersburg)”:
Quote:Ornithologists consider the shooting of birds on the Baltic migratory
way useless from the point of view of protection from the virus of
the influenza of birds. As reports correspondent IA regnum, about
this today, on 6 March, the senior scientific worker of zoological
institute RAN [RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE] Vladimir khrabryy stated
at the press conference in Saint Petersburg. “in the zoological
institute RAN [RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE] is comprised the letter,
signed by the director of the institute Aleksandr Alimov, in which
the scientists express their point of view to the problem: the
ornithologists do not have complete confidence, that the migratory
birds are the basic peddlers H5N1. Shooting itself we consider
harmful and medieval deystvom, 98% of hunters even do not
distinguish, at what birds they shoot “, noted scientist.According to Vladimir khrabry, migratory birds stop on the North
coast of Gulf of Finland from Lakhty to the fox nose, on south – from
Znamenki to the dam, and also around dam and Kronstadt, in the fields
around Saint Petersburg in Koltush region, Pushkin, Kolpina, krasnoe
selo, gorelova. 40 it is specific birds in Leningrad region they are
carried into the Red Books of different level, 8 it is specific – in
the Red Book RF, 23 – in the Red Book Of baltiki, 17 it is specific –
in the Red Book of Fennoscandia, 6 it is specific they are introduced
into the international Red Book. In Saint Petersburg they live
150-200 thousand gray crows, 300 thousand different winterring birds,
300 thousand seagulls of different it is specific. Daily each bird
eats 100-150 grams of different fodder, including food withdrawals.Vladimir khrabryy reported also that soon the group of the scientists
of zoological institute RYBACHY [RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE] will leave
for the biological station on The Kuronian Spit in the environs of
Kaliningrad for the ringing of birds and their study. “the yearly
scientists of institute ring 10 thousand birds on The Kuronian Spit. In this year it is intended to ring so many birds. Any means
of protection the scientists not had – it is not separated to this of
means, by any studies, connected with the influenza of birds they be
occupied also not will be “, noted brave.As reported today the chief specialist for the administration for the
veterinary science of the government of Saint Petersburg Valerie
yashina, on the urban dumps they will catch seagulls and cormorants
on the Finnish technology. Only the part of the birds, according to
The the yashinoy, is intended to kill with the aid of the carbon
dioxide. Yashina certified, that this will be done only “for purposes
of the civilized regulation of synanthropic bird, as this occurs in
all civilized countries”, but about the assumed quantity it did not
report the birds intended for the destruction.Post edited by: martin, at: 2006/03/07 07:46
Post edited by: martin, at: 2006/03/07 09:21
from correspondent in Germany:
I realised, that the situation was out of control in Germany. At work I had applications for removal of House Martin nests (I work in the department of Species Conservation of the city of Berlin), veterinarians closed down our wild bird rescue station, and I was asked, whether children still could play in parks. In eastern Germany the first White Stork nests are to be removed, and in one state in SW-Germany a law to shot down ervery strange flying bird is in serious discussion.
Quote:Mar 06, Colombo: People of the Rathnapura area are chasing away the
large flocks of birds which add beauty and fame to the famous gem
city of Sri Lanka.Fire crackers and other methods used to chase the migrant birds which
gather in large numbers during the season have become a nuisance to
both the birds and people. Panic created after the eruption of bird
flu in neighbouring India has already affected the poultry industry
in Sri Lanka.Provincial Deputy Director of Health Mr. D.A.B. Dangalle has prompted
the epidemiology department of the Colombo National Hospital to
conduct an investigation and the research carried out by a team of
doctors of the Peradeniya Veterinary Research Institute has proved
that Rathnapura birds cause no health hazard. They examined a number
of poultry farms in the area as chickens are the most prone to the
epidemic.Article by Paul Ewald on website of the Edge Foundation, in answer to question re what’s his dangerous idea includes:
Quote:Today experts on infectious diseases and institutions entrusted to protect and improve human health sound the alarm in response to each novel threat. The current fears over a devastating pandemic of bird flu is a case in point. Some of the loudest voices offer a simplistic argument: failing to prepare for the worst-case scenarios is irresponsible and dangerous. This criticism has been recently leveled at me and others who question expert proclamations, such as those from the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control.These proclamations inform us that H5N1 bird flu virus poses an imminent threat of an influenza pandemic similar to or even worse than the 1918 pandemic. I have decreased my popularity in such circles by suggesting that the threat of this scenario is essentially nonexistent. In brief I argue that the 1918 influenza viruses evolved their unique combination of high virulence and high transmissibility in the conditions at the Western Front of World War I.
Der Spiegel article:
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/0,1518,403367,00.html
“Researchers doubt the migratory bird thesis”
[“machine translation”]How the bird flu came to Germany, is further completely unclear.
While politicians and veterinarians before the beginning of the bird
course warn, experts refer to the gaps of the realizations: It seems,
as if could not have been wild geese, swans and ducks it alone.The map of the world became a patch carpet. From China and Viet Nam
broad itself red fields out: Those countries, in which the bird flu
virus H5N1 breaks out. Countries seem almost daily to be added,
recently ever more European. And also when regarding the Germany map
the patch carpet association forces itself upon. It met ruegen as the
first, in the midst of H5N1-freier of neighboring countries. The
brandenburgischen districts concerned do not border evenly on the
island. East Holstein lies 150 kilometers further west. In order to
arrive at the Bodensee beach of Ueberlingen or the Mannheimer Rhine
bank, must the exciter the entire Federal Republic have diagonally
crossed. Has? Would have? Only how? Flown?“it is missed to make migratory birds responsible for the bird flu”,
said the Executive Secretary of the UN convention about moving animal
species (CMS), Robert Hepworth. For the spreading of the virus by
migratory birds give it no scientific vouchers.Migratory birds under general suspicion
Ministers and veterinarians warn unisono of the beginning of the bird
course in approaching spring. Migratory birds are firstbest
suspecting. “if game birds the main carriers would be, for example
between China and Nigeria, then one would nevertheless expect, says
outbreaks on the distance between them also” Lenten. The dangerous
virus spread from the east to the west, the relevant bird course
routes run in north south direction. In the case ruegen it is added
that many swans concerned were at all no classical migratory birds,
but at best so-called Kaeltefluechter.“I think nothing at all from this theory”, say the micro biologist
Alexander Kekule of the University of resound Wittenberg. Because
after everything which one knows, works the virus in swans very fast
and very strongly. “Kekule fall in few days dead over”, stress.
“one-way street thinking” calls the ornithologist Klaus Dieter fig
the thesis that game birds brought the virus in made of Eastern
Europe, where their breeding districts with those overlap themselves
to Asia of pulling birds. Cowardly one is a national boss of the
Ornithologi working group Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.Thomas Mettenleiter, boss of the Friedrich Loeffler institute speaks
only of the fact that “puzzlesteine” point on it who can itself have
moved exciters “stafettenartig” in the federal territory. In Lettland
of beringter Singschwan is considered as a main suspect: It was one
of the first animals, with which on ruegen H5N1 one determined.
During its takeoff it is to have been still healthy. “it was beringt
in Lettland, but we do not know, where it was infected, says” UN game
bird advocate Lenten. Officially the Osteekueste of Russia is
considered until to Usedom as H5N1-frei. Also cases of suspicion were
so far not announced.Fear forwards and aggression against game birds
But how otherwise the exciter – in living birds, their meat or their
excrement – could have come to Central Europe? Bert Lenten enumerates
possibilities: Trade, smuggling, illegal Einfurh of living person or
totem poultry. “in Eastern Europe even the muck from chicken houses
is taken as fodder for fischteiche”, said it. “we have the case of a
swan, that with its Beringung in Hungary were core healthy and two
days later dead in Croatia were gathered.” Who only concentrates on
migratory birds as a carrier of H5N1, ignore other infection ways –
that is dangerous.In January the Politpopulist Vladimir Schirinowski in the Russian
parliament had demanded to shoot all migratory birds with the return
from their Turkish winter districts. “the government must put a latch
plate for the bird course forward”, demanded it. In Turkey in January
four children had died after a H5N1-Infektion. “the birds are to
remain, where they are”, said the politician.related UNEP press release, 22 Feb 2006
Avian Influenza and the United Nations Environment Programme: investigating the root causes of the spreading of the disease and effective solutions for its containment.“Blaming bird migrations is misleading and would not promote lasting solutions” – says the Executive Secretary of the UNEP Convention on Migratory Species. “The international community should focus instead on the ecological, social and economic causes of the spreading such as the drastic reduction of wildlife habitats and unsustainable farming practices, which have led to an unhealthy proximity of migratory birds and domesticated animals”.
As Avian Influenza reaches Africa, India and Western Europe, migrations of birds continue to be identified as the main cause of the spread, threatening panic in areas where wild birds feed, rest or breed and reinforcing the idea that solutions to prevent the pandemic are to be found in the control of this phenomenon which has been a central part of natural ecosystems for millennia.
By continuing to focus only on bird migrations, other mechanisms and paths for the contamination are being underestimated, and effective protection measures ignored. UNEP, in collaboration with its Convention on Migratory Species based in Bonn and the related African Eurasian Waterbird Agreement are convening a meeting of experts to investigate the root causes of the spread and identify effective solutions for its containment. The meeting, to be held in Nairobi at the UNEP headquarters on 10-11 April 2006, will deliver scientific advice to governments by trying to provide an answer to a number of unresolved issues.
Since the AI “story” emerged, too many voices in the media have been pointing at what looks like an extremely easy, although logical, assumption: as outbreaks appear in different locations, the cause should be mobile, ‘migratory’ in nature, traveling from one site to another. As wild migratory birds were found infected, they immediately became the authors of the crime. However, as in any normal criminal investigation, all clues should be considered, and all evidence gathered.
First, is the spread really following only migratory routes? In the last couple of weeks, outbreaks are appearing contemporarily in different, quite distant locations. However, during their migrations birds reach different grounds at different time and stages. For instance in India migratory birds landed in September, much earlier than the spreading. “If they at all had carried the virus, it would have been noticed much earlier” remarks Dr. Taej Mundkur, an ornithologist from Weltlands International member of CMS/AEWA coordinated scientific task force on ‘Wild Birds and Avian Influenza’. Why this time gap if an infected bird should normally release the virus within a couple of weeks since the infection?
Also, there seem to be little correlation between the predominantly north-south orientation of flyways and the southeast to northwest path by which the virus has spread from SE Asia to Eastern Europe. How can this be explained? Why are some countries along migratory routes not vulnerable and others, outside of these corridors, being affected?
What are other ways in which the virus can be spread? Dr. Mundkur remarked in previous interviews that movement of poultry and poultry products have been found to be most common cause of spread of virus across the world.
Moreover, there are a number of questions on the dangers posed by migratory birds to humans. Are migratory birds primary carriers, if high pathogenic avian influenza viruses are very rare in these wild animals? It should be reminded that wild birds have not been implicated in any human AI infections yet recorded. While there seem to be now sufficient evidence that some wild bird species can survive the H5N1 infection and even not develop the disease hmm… – Martin; not much at all that I’ve seen, in most cases H5N1 has been detected in dying or moribund birds.
It is difficult for sick and dying animals to be vectors as they will not be able to fly long distances. Therefore, to which extent are migratory birds a natural reservoir of H5N1 or are they mainly victims of it, as they have contracted from intermingling with domestic fowl? Why is such intermingling increasingly taking place – could one reason be the reduction of wetlands where migratory birds previously used more exclusively? Who is responsible for the loss of those wetlands?
There is the need to better understand which species can be carriers, and which ones cannot contract the virus. Also, amongst those subject to infection, it is important to differentiate between those that do not survive, and have therefore a limited capability to spread the virus, and the asymptomatic carriers whose role in the transmission of the virus needs to be further explored.
UNEP is also concerned with the solutions proposed to contain the pandemic. While most of the cases are found in poultry, culling of wild birds is still being floated as a possible means to stop the spread. The Convention on Migratory Species, which has 25 years of experience in the conservation of wild animals worldwide, sees culling as the ‘quick fix’, definitely a wrong approach diverging efforts and attention from the real causes of the spread of bird flu and effective solutions. Unanimously, meetings of the contracting Parties to CMS, AEWA and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, three international agreements specialized on migratory animals and their habitats, have rejected culling as a plausible solution.
“What’s happening in the world with AI is simply highlighting the connection between the degradation of ecosystems and their vulnerabilities” – says Robert Hepworth, Executive Secretary of the Convention. “The proximity of migratory birds to poultry is the outcome of incorrect planning and development paths, which have caused the sharing of important habitats for migratory birds – like wetlands – between wildlife and farms, with the obvious consequences we are now experiencing”.
Ecological imbalances caused by proximity, high density of development and unsustainable agriculture and farming, which increase the pressure on ecosystems, compromise their correct functioning.
“The ‘quick fix’ we are witnessing now is not the solution. Vaccines, quarantine, antivirals could contain this spread, but the truth is that, unless we work to reestablish a correct balance between the human-made world and nature, or to say it in more scientific terms, we work to maintain the resilience of ecosystems to human pressure, the problem will reemerge” continues Mr. Hepworth “It might be a different disease, involving different species, but it will happen again” he predicts ” unless the international community addresses the real causes of environmental degradation”.
“Blaming migratory birds seems the easiest way not to focus on the real problems related to development and unsustainable agricultural practices” echoes Mr. Bert Lenten, Executive Secretary of the African Eurasian Waterbirds Agreement. “We should focus on effective conservation measures for wildlife and their habitats, thus maintaining healthy and uncontaminated ecosystems”.
The two international conservation agreements have already created, in collaboration with a number of other international organizations concerned with the spreading of the virus in wildlife, a taskforce on avian influenza and wild birds which regularly meets by teleconference since August last year. The scientific taskforce has produced advise, widely circulated in the form of press releases, to raise the awareness of the international community on the effects that the flu is having on wildlife, and to stress how this phenomenon is both a human health concern and a conservation issue.
The meeting in Nairobi will consider the latest scientific evidence, provide expert advice to this investigation and reliable information supported by science. “There is no need for further speculations, now its time to stick to the science” concludes Mr. Hepworth.
The Convention was also tasked by UNEP to create an early warning system, to analyze and study migration paths and hotspots of possible contacts between migratory birds and poultry, so to scientifically map those areas, which need to be alerted for a possible outbreak. The early warning system will consequently identify those areas where domesticated animals and wildlife have to share the same habitat, thus providing a detailed picture of regions which will need careful planning of future developments as well as better conservation and restoration measures.
Conservation and sustainable development are claimed by the United Nations Environment Programme as the policies and solutions for a healthy future. The case of avian influenza is another confirmation for the need of a balanced approach between growth and protection of the environment.
Useful links: http://www.cms.int http://www.unep-aewa.org http://www.wetlands.org
For more information please contact: Paola Deda External relations UNEP/CMS 8, Martin Luther King Strasse 53175 Bonn Tel +49. 228.815.2462
Post edited by: martin, at: 2006/03/05 07:12
The magpie proved H5N1 positive; so too two house crows:
Quote:The Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said today (February 27) that three earlier suspected cases were confirmed to be H5N1 positive after a series of laboratory tests.The cases involve a dead House Crow collected on Lai On Estate on February 20, a dead House Crow collected on Tai Hang Tung Estate on February 23, and a dead Common Magpie collected on Island Road on February 24.
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200602/27/P200602270247.htm
Bit of a lull in cases right now.
Seems we’ve had virus in poultry/songbirds (all songbird species that may have been from captivity), then crows/magpies.
Possibly, then, moving from introductions through markets, to dying out in wild bar some scavengers – and these not in major numbers.
From a correspondent:
about TRANSSIBERIEN
I never believe this hypothesis !
i know very well russian trains
sure, it’s many, many very poor great mothers which travel with bucket of eggs or chicken from their vllages to the next townbut not sufficient !
for me, transiberian appears one day in the russian press agencys; after the departure of migrating birds !
it was a new reason to distract from poultry industryif really transsiberian, why not bird flu in Moscow or Vladivostok
)))))))
why, after Ural, direct to the south -without transsiberian -? to Volga and Don ?in Russia, very few roads, very few trains
I’m fast sure that the poultry industry don’t take train, but trucks which travel through all the country with the virus !
and in russia, no sense of hygieneJust had email from German birder, returned from birding trip inc South Korea [and HK]:
Quote:Back at home I realised, that the situation was out of control in Germany. At work I had applications for removal of House Martin nests (I work in the department of Species Conservation of the city of Berlin), veterinarians closed down our wild bird rescue station, and I was asked, whether children still could play in parks. In eastern Germany the first White Stork nestes are to be removed, and in one state in SW-Germany a law to shot down ervery strange flying bird is in serious discussion.This situation is in strong contrast to what I learnd about Poultry Flu from you, the Asian ornithologists.
Therefore I wrote a letter and sent it to the relevant bodies in Germany. I enclose this letter, but because it is written in german I summarise it als follows: It is unlikely, that wild birds are vektors for the desease about longer distances. There is no correlation between migration routes and the spread of Poultry flu. Only one occasion with a likely transport via wild birds (from China to southern Mongolia) is dokumented, where the desease tapered off after a while. No poultry was affected. There are countries with many migrants from affected areas (Japan, South Korea, Malaysia) without Poultry flu outbreaks within the wild, but these countries do have stong import controls. Instead of this it is possible to explain the spread of Poultry flu with the trade of poultry and poultry products. The latter include chicken faeces (as fertilizer for fishery and agriculture purposes) and and chicken litter (as food for domestic stock, including chicken). The virus can survive under good conditions up to 30-35 days outside living birds. So far in Europe, swans are among the first victums of Poultry flu outbreaks in the wild. This might be explained by their feeding ecology (in fishponds as well as on fields). I condluded, that the tale of wild birds as vektors obviously prevents the authorities to search for the real causes of the actual outbreaks.
This letter has got some attention (as was intended). There was a lot of approval, but also some criticism. I am going to answer it, but maybe you can help me with some thoughts. I will search the internet for additional arguments, but you might have the answers right in your mind.
I’ve sent quick answers:
Glad you’ve sent the letter, and stirred a little debate.
Way too much panic in Europe I believe. Also terrible re cat owners dumping pets (I’ve read).Quick attempts at answers:
Quote:There were connections via migrants from southwest Siberia to the Black Sea coast. This westward movement of Poultry flu might have happen over some migration periods, even without noticable outbreaks at the migration stops in between.– no, it is fanciful that it could happen “over some migration periods”. Poultry flu is invariably lethal to wild birds (may be some ducks – some individuals – that survive, but if present in wild birds, get deaths).
As well as connections via migrants, also trade connections, including smuggling.Quote:Most birds do not die within an outbreak. Healthy birds can transport the virus over long dinstances. This is supported by the fact, that there were dying birds at different places in Europe within a very short time – quite unlikely, that there was transport of infected material to all these places within short time.– evidence for “most birds do not die” please? So far, evidence strong that most birds do die.
Meaning of the dying birds – mostly swans – in Europe is unclear. We don’t know if all the infected swans are dying, even after moving as result of cold weather (and not being fed by people?)
So far, I haven’t seen re even one apparently healthy wild bird being found to have H5N1 in Europe/west Asia. (And no wild bird at all, so far, that I know of in Africa.)
In Romania, case of infected swans on some ponds; observation and testing showed they didn’t infect other waterbirds sharing the ponds.Here in Hong Kong, virus present and nearby for 10 years now. Mostly, for this time, not present in poultry or wild birds here. As yet, all cases in wild birds have been in dead birds. Over 16,000 apparently healthy wild birds tested so far; all negative.
– how to explain this, other than virus dying out as wild birds die.
Likewise, recently published research shows 4 distinct strains in southern China:Quote:There were outbreaks also in countries with strict import controls like Japan and South Korea (Januar 2004), and Malaysia might have had some outbreaks but did not admit them.– controls have strengthened; yet virus hasn’t recurred.
Many migrant waterfowl to Japan and S Korea – as you’ve seen; yet – like Hong Kong – no evidence of H5N1 in them.
[HK this winter – none in waterfowl; some in a few songbirds, and crows: starting after around Chinese New Year, associated with H5N1 in at least one smuggled chicken.]
– if indeed readily carried by wild waterbirds, why no outbreaks in wild waterbirds east of Caspian Sea, right across to Japan, this past autumn and this winter? People are testing in several places; including India, where many Qinghai birds spend the winter.
– Malaysia had small recent outbreak, blamed on smuggled fighting cocks.Quote:Fertilizer and Food from chicken faeces and litter: it is very unlikely, that this material can come within three weeks from China to Germany.– Doesn’t have to be this way. Mixture of ways that avian flu spreads in poultry industry. Day old chicks, dirty crates etc. Spread thro Russia, along rail lines and roads, then to Turkey/eastern Europe.
Quote:Can the virus be in one area, and cause an outbreak some 12-15 weeks later?– seems so; Vietnam thought they eradicated it, but returned.
Also in recent paper: a virus strain introduced to Vietnam was close to one from sw China, it was thought transport was likely cause.A terrible situation.
The problems are within farming; it was poultry farming that created this form of H5N1 (and its various strains), and is chiefly responsible for spread.I believe we will look back on this period, and find it shameful. And maybe wonder why people weren’t more stout-hearted, perhaps even standing back to look at the facts – including that it’s not easy to catch H5N1: one way in Vietnam was drinking raw duck blood.
Just come across a site founded in wake of UK’s foot and mouth epidemic in 2001; "providing a daily commentary on matters having a connection with animal health or welfare or legislation from the perspective of an independent onlooker." Has news page devoted to H5N1, esp re wild birds, biosecurity, and vaccination. UK focus, but info culled from many sources. Warmwell.com or, direct to Avian influenza
Two letters from UK virologist Dr Ruth Watkins of interest (as perhaps not elsewhere); suggesting vaccination for poultry in Turkey. (In letter posted on this forum, vet Les Sims has written of vaccination being important in Hong Kong’s success in controlling H5N1: Learning to live with H5N1 In second letter, Watkins makes ominous prediction should things go awry in Turkey:
Quote:It would seem that Turkey’s exit strategy could be to eliminate the keeping of domestic poultry altogether- I have seen this on the latest ProMed bulletin. This may be very unfortunate for the nutrition and health of its poorer population who- if they ever get the meagre monetary compensation proposed- may be hard pushed to find it would cover another long term source of nutrition as valuable as poultry. They may become like the Maltese and attempt to catch and kill every migrating bird that passes through Turkey- a disaster for wild birds.Quote:While the spread of the H5N1 virus to Europe is a serious issue for farming and wildlife, it presents a negligible threat to human health that should not worry the public, Professor Sir David King told The Times.
…
experience of the disease in Asian countries suggests that individuals are about seven times more likely to win the national lottery than they are to contract bird flu.In China, where the disease is endemic among birds, just 14 infections and 8 deaths have been confirmed by the World Health Organisation in a population of 1.3 billion people — a rate of one case per 93 million and one death per 163 million.
This suggests that the current form of the virus is so difficult for humans to catch that the risk will remain extremely remote even if it infects British birds, as is likely now it has spread to France and Germany.
Britain’s population is 60 million, making even a single case unlikely at these odds.
Speaking exclusively to The Times, Sir David said that the public health threat from the virus had been widely exaggerated, and confused with the danger it posed to the poultry industry.
“It is very important to keep things in proportion, and to make a distinction between the virus in birds and the virus in humans,” he said.
“Your chances of winning the lottery are about 1 in 14 million. Your chances of catching bird flu are more like 1 in 100 million, even if we had H5N1 among the chicken population in Britain.
“That’s a back-of-the-envelope calculation based on China, but the real figure will not be much different. It may in fact be even lower than 1 in 100 million, because we don’t live cheek-by-jowl with chickens in the same way. Simply put, this is not an issue we should worry about in terms of public health.”
…
From a human health point of view, he is more concerned about the spread of H5N1 into Africa, where cases have now been confirmed in birds in Egypt, Nigeria and Niger.These developing countries lack the resources to contain the disease, and have backyard poultry flocks similar to those found in the Far East, which expose large numbers of people to the virus. This creates potential crucibles for genetic mutations that could allow the virus to start spreading from person to person, a critical event for a pandemic.
…
His comments were backed by Neil Ferguson, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Imperial College, London, one of the world’s leading influenza epidemiologists. He said that the risk of human cases in Britain was “absolutely negligible”.“There have been about 150 infections in South-East Asia and China, and the population size of the heavily affected region is around the 300 to 400 million mark,” Professor Ferguson said. “Whether it is 1 in 100 million or 1 in 10 million, it is a very small risk. … The risk is absolutely negligible, though convincing people of that is difficult because H5N1 has now acquired a rather mythological status.”
Susanne Glasmacher, of the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin, which leads Germany’s bird flu containment efforts, would not estimate the risk of human infections in the country, where 136 dead birds and a cat carrying H5N1 have been found. Any risk, however, is likely to be lower than in Asia. “The virus in Asia was passed on overwhelmingly to poultry farmers and those living in very close daily contact with birds,” Dr Glasmacher said. “In Germany we have different lifestyles.”
Britons ‘far more likely to win the lottery than to contract avian flu’
Nature:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v440/n7080/full/440006a.html
“Disease surveillance needs a revolution”
[subscription needed]Mark Savey, an epidemiologist who heads animal health at France’s
food-safety agency, also welcomes the proposal, but cautions against
the “mirage of technology” in surveillance. “You don’t need
satellites, PCR and geographic information systems to fight
outbreaks,” he says. The labs’ top priority should be building large
teams of local staff, who are familiar with the region and its
practices, he argues. “If you do not have that, then surveillance
will stay in the Middle Ages.”Savey recalls his trip to Russia last summer as part of a European
team investigating outbreaks of avian flu. “You have a paper Michelin
map; you have people who speak the language; you put red circles on
outbreaks; and you use a pen and paper to compare them with things
like the dates of market openings, and with how outbreaks line up
with railways.” Such local knowledge is crucial to interpreting data,
he says. “If you don’t know what the Trans-Siberian Express is like,
with people cooped up for days, exchanging chickens and eggs at every
stop, you would never guess that it was the Trans-Siberian that
mainly spread avian flu across Russia.”
)))))))