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Even before last year, I had a look at histogram showing the nos of US hurricanes over time; seemed to me the frequency had become fair bit higher than a cursory look at the cycles would predict.
Quote:Global warming accounted for about half of the extra hurricane-fueling warmth in Atlantic waters off the United States in 2005, while natural cycles were smaller factors, according to a study released Thursday by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.“The global warming influence provides a new background level that increases the risk of future enhancements in hurricane activity,” co-author Kevin Trenberth wrote in the study.
A statement issued by the center said that the study “contradicts recent claims that natural cycles are responsible for the upturn in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995. It also adds support to the premise that hurricane seasons will become more active as global temperatures rise.”
Even as Disinformation for Idiots brigade (read, right-wingers in US) puts up more smokescreens re warming, main science keeps showing it’s real.
This just in:
Quote:WASHINGTON — There is sufficient evidence from tree rings, boreholes, retreating glaciers, and other “proxies” of past surface temperatures to say with a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years, according to a new report from the National Research Council. Less confidence can be placed in proxy-based reconstructions of surface temperatures for A.D. 900 to 1600, said the committee that wrote the report, although the available proxy evidence does indicate that many locations were warmer during the past 25 years than during any other 25-year period since 900. Very little confidence can be placed in statements about average global surface temperatures prior to A.D. 900 because the proxy data for that time frame are sparse, the committee added.Scientists rely on proxies to reconstruct paleoclimatic surface temperatures because geographically widespread records of temperatures measured with instruments date back only about 150 years. Other proxies include corals, ocean and lake sediments, ice cores, cave deposits, and documentary sources, such as historic drawings of glaciers. The globally averaged warming of about 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees Celsius) that instruments have recorded during the last century is also reflected in proxy data for that time period, the committee noted.
The report was requested by Congress after a controversy arose last year over surface temperature reconstructions published by climatologist Michael Mann and his colleagues in the late 1990s. The researchers concluded that the warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the last decades of the 20th century was unprecedented in the past thousand years. In particular, they concluded that the 1990s were the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year. Their graph depicting a rise in temperatures at the end of a long era became known as the “hockey stick.”
The Research Council committee found the Mann team’s conclusion that warming in the last few decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last thousand years to be plausible, but it had less confidence that the warming was unprecedented prior to 1600; fewer proxies — in fewer locations — provide temperatures for periods before then. Because of larger uncertainties in temperature reconstructions for decades and individual years, and because not all proxies record temperatures for such short timescales, even less confidence can be placed in the Mann team’s conclusions about the 1990s, and 1998 in particular.
The committee noted that scientists’ reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures for the past thousand years are generally consistent. The reconstructions show relatively warm conditions centered around the year 1000, and a relatively cold period, or “Little Ice Age,” from roughly 1500 to 1850. The exact timing of warm episodes in the medieval period may have varied by region, and the magnitude and geographical extent of the warmth is uncertain, the committee said. None of the reconstructions indicates that temperatures were warmer during medieval times than during the past few decades, the committee added.
The scarcity of precisely dated proxy evidence for temperatures before 1600, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, is the main reason there is less confidence in global reconstructions dating back further than that. Other factors that limit confidence include the short length of the instrumental record, which is used to calibrate and validate reconstructions, and the possibility that the relationship between proxy data and local surface temperatures may have varied over time. It also is difficult to estimate a mean global temperature using data from a limited number of sites. On the other hand, confidence in large-scale reconstructions is boosted by the fact that the proxies on which they are based generally exhibit strong correlations with local environmental conditions. Confidence increases further when multiple independent lines of evidence point to the same general phenomenon, such as the Little Ice Age.
Collecting additional proxy data, especially for years before 1600 and for areas where the current data are relatively sparse, would increase our understanding of temperature variations over the last 2,000 years, the report says. In addition, improving access to data on which published temperature reconstructions are based would boost confidence in the results. The report also notes that new analytical methods, or more careful use of existing methods, might help circumvent some of the current limitations associated with large-scale reconstructions.
The committee pointed out that surface temperature reconstructions for periods before the Industrial Revolution — when levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases were much lower — are only one of multiple lines of evidence supporting the conclusion that current warming is occurring in response to human activities, and they are not the primary evidence.
The National Research Council is the principal operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. It is a private, nonprofit institution that provides science and technology advice under a congressional charter.
you can order the book, or read online for free, at:
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 YearsThe British Trust for Ornithology has prepared a report on apparent impacts of climate change on migratory species. Includes birds that are wintering in Britain, or parts of Britain, in higher numbers – rather than moving south/west to warmer places; also variations in ranges of some marine animals inc cetaceans. Notes that, "Although it is thought that no species has yet become extinct solely because of climate change (Golden Toad is a possible exception), many extinctions (of both migratory and non-migratory species) are predicted in the near future." summary:
CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATORY SPECIES
"Bird influenza ruins poultry farmers Ural FO"
Quote:In the Ural federal region the repeated vaccination of poultry from the bird influenza occurs. Until today more than 8,4 million doses of anti-influenza vaccine entered into the region. It is inculcated the order of 3,9 million domestic hens and weft, of them 498 thousand passed repeated vaccination. As was noted at the session of operational staff on warning of the spread of the influenza of birds in the territory UrFO despite the fact that there are no focuies of bird influenza in the Ural regions as yet, stir around the infection already brought its fruits – local poultry processing facilities they suffer losses because of reduction in the demand for its production, it reported "uralinformbyuro". In the opinion of specialists, this situation to the hand to the unconscientious participants in the market, who hurry to illegally import to the territory of region chicken meat because of the boundary, proposing it on the dumping prices. The main flows of bird go through Kaliningrad region, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldavia, Poland and China. Only in the South Urals in 2005 were illegally imported 34-36 thousand tons of poultry-breeding production, which decreased the profitability of local production by 10%.– with millions of dollars spent on hunting for Tooth Fairy Bird (wild bird that can survive and sustain and spread H5N1), gotta hope that equivalent money and effort being placed in investigating poultry smuggling. Report like this suggests there should be much helpful info, should anyone care to look. (FAO and OIE: Hello….)
Quote:SINGAPORE : A 21-year-old Malaysian has been arrested for attempting to smuggle frozen ducks into Singapore through the Woodlands Checkpoint.Officers from the Immigration and Checkpoint Authority, acting on a tip-off, were on a look out for the illegal consignment on Tuesday morning when they spotted a Malaysian-registered petroleum tanker.
On inspecting it, they found that the bulk tank felt “unusually cold” and had been modified.
Inside, they found 276 boxes packed with 4,416 kg of frozen ducks.
…Customs officers foil attempt to smuggle frozen ducks into Singapore
Quote:Australia’s migratory birds are arriving earlier and leaving later – most likely due to global warming, a new study has found.Macquarie University PhD students Linda Beaumont and Ian McAllan, together with associate professor Lesley Hughes, have analysed the movements of migratory birds visiting south-eastern Australia since the 1960s.
Using published literature, bird observer reports, and observations of bird watchers, the team compared the arrival date for 24 species and the departure for 12 species over the past 40 years.
The study is believed to be the largest of its kind in the southern hemisphere, and is published in the current edition of the international journal Global Change Biology.
The study found half of the species analysed – which included sandpipers, kingfishers, bee eaters and plovers – showed a significant trend toward earlier arrival since 1960.
It showed they were arriving on average 3.5 days earlier per decade across the whole study group.
At the same time, there was an average delay in departure of 5.1 days per decade.
Global warming affects bird migration
For some time, I’ve believed timings of migrants changing on ne China coast (near Beidaihe) as a result of warming; seems that area is more affected by warming than many regions. Also, increases in some residents such as Vinous-throated Parrotbill perhaps as winters less harsh than had been normal.
Been reading a lot re An Inconvenient Truth, based on Al Gore’s presentation on global warming. Now found there’s a trailer here, giving some idea of content – and with Hollywood style dramatic music, pacing (yes, pacing, who’d have thought that of Mr G?):
"Watching" debate in N America, especially US, I find it puzzling that whether global warming is a serious problem is seen as political issue. Read an Esquire article, on American Idiots, suggesting this was a bit like saying you did or did not believe in gravity depending on political outlook.
Quote:Permafrost soil blanketing northeastern Siberia contains about 75 times more carbon than is released by burning fossil fuels each year. That means it could become a potent, likely unstoppable contributor to global climate change if it continues to thaw.
…
thawing permafrost could have contributed to changing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during past warming and cooling events in the earth’s history.Global warming could accelerate from thawing Siberian permafrost
A report just out with observations of polar bears killing other polar bears for food – perhaps as it’s harder for them to access regular prey, because ice takes longer to form as winter approaches.
Study: Warming turns bears into cannibals
Seems global warming issue is receiving more attention in US, depite the attempts of various people – often with “conservative” political agendas – to befuddle people. Also, perhaps some awareness that US is taking v little action, despite some promises; not surprising when there’s an oil man from Texas at the helm.
for instance:
U.S. foot-dragging fuels global warming
By the time we get proof of climate change, it will be too late to reverse course.Time is running out for action on global warming
includes:Quote:Essentially, there is no national leadership. With a White House that bases its economic and foreign policies largely on fossil fuel development, much of the world has turned a blind eye to what this administration says about global warming. And with a Congress hamstrung by fossil fuel lobbyists and a leadership who would rather waste time debating gay marriage, don’t look for any constructive discussions on real issues.
In response to Washington’s perpetual head in the sand, there is a growing movement by state and local leaders to address global warming.Post edited by: martin, at: 2006/06/12 02:57
A survey of US anglers and hunters find that – even tho most are rightwingers, majority believe (based on own experiences) that global warming is happening.
Poll: Many hunters, anglers agree global warming happening
http://www.regnum.ru/news/653872.html
“In Murmansk region the shooting of the migratory birds was completed”In Murmansk region the shooting of wild migratory birds for purposes
of the preventive maintenance of bird influenza is practically
completed. The today controlling services declare, that in the region
there is no bird influenza. But many forms migrate, and the
theoretical chance of unfavorable distribution nevertheless remains.
Cannot be weakened control, and monitoring is necessary. All
migratory birds befit for the preventive shooting. For the analysis
the veterinary surgeon is beret the fragment of bowels of bird.
Corpse will be burnt. Deputy division head of okhotnadzora Of
rossel’khoznadzora of Murmansk region Stanislav kirchigin: “our
division already returned forty tests, and they thus far indicate
that the result is negative – all normal”, reports GTRK “Murman”.Quote:JOHN VON RADOWITZ
GLOBAL warming could be returning the world to the way it was four million years ago when sea levels were 80ft higher than they are today, scientists say.The forecast suggests that a climatic “switch” may soon be thrown, resulting in a seismic geothermal shift.
If the prediction is correct, later generations could find themselves living in a climate similar to that of the early Pliocene epoch.
Even though at that time the greenhouse effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide was no greater than it is today, average global temperatures were at least 3C warmer.
Sea levels were 25 metres, or 82ft, higher four million years ago during the early Pliocene. Such a rise would have a devastating effect on human populations around the world, submerging whole islands and coastal cities.
The epoch was also marked by droughts and torrential rains.
Human evolution may have depended on the onset of drier conditions about three million years ago, when ice started spreading in the north and the Earth began to cool. Experts writing in the journal Science say human-induced climate change may already be pushing the “switch”.
Quote:By Mark Henderson, Science EditorGLOBAL warming is already influencing the evolution of some animals, according to research that attributes genetic changes to rising temperatures.
Scientists have identified heritable genetic changes among squirrels, birds and insects that appear to be evolved adaptations to a warmer world.As average temperatures have increased, the researchers say, so have the lengths of the warmer spring and autumn seasons. This has given a substantial advantage to animals with the genetic ability to vary their behaviour accordingly, influencing the course of evolution.
The evolutionary adaptations observed to date, however, are all related to changing season length, rather than building tolerance to higher temperatures or altered climatic conditions. This means that species are likely to remain vulnerable to extinction as global warming progresses.
In a review published today in the journal Science, William Bradshaw and Christina Holzapfel, of the University of Oregon, highlight several examples of animal species evolving in response to global warming.
The animals are migrating, breeding or developing earlier in the spring, and research has established that this goes beyond normal variation and is influenced by genetic change.
…“Preventive”/”Diagnostic” Shooting
On May 31, 2006 the press office of the Rosselkhoznadzor (Russian
Agriculture Oversight Agency) office for Tyumen Province and the
Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Districts (in western Siberia)
announced that the shooting of wild birds in Tyumen Province had been
halted and all the special team members had surrendered their permits.
During the campaign to shoot wild birds flying over the province, 962
teams of hunters shot a total of 13,549 birds, including 6,879 that were
destroyed and disposed of and 113 that were sent to Rosselkhoznadzor for
testing. As of 31 May, no cases of avian flu had been reported in the
territory. According to a Rosselkhoznadzor spokesperson, specialists
from the provincial wildlife management department planned to continue
monitoring the avian flu situation in the province.source: RIA Novosti (Novosti Russian News Agency), May 31, 2006.
[a “machine translation”]
Quote:ON ended up being accustomed to it. Virus H5N1 of the avian flu was
standardized in Romania, where it made its return on May 14. Since,
more than one hundred hearths were localised, including in the
Rumanian capital, which saw in fear of an epidemic even if the virus
did not make for the moment any human victim.The Romanians are furious because, this time, in fact any more to
and from of the migratory birds of it is responsible, but several
poultry stockbreeders which knew that their chickens were probably
contaminated but did not hesitate to sell them at low prices to get
rid some. Vasila Dardala, owner of the industrial chicken breeding
Drakom Silva de Codlea, small city located at the center of Romania,
and Macovei Guilder, owner of the Patiprod company of the same city,
were stopped and risk 15 years of prison.STATE OF ALERT
The Rumanian authorities are again in state of alert to try to stop
the damage. A few tens of tons of chickens were seized in the
supermarkets. “Nearly a million poultries were cut down in the
areas”, declared the Minister for agriculture, Gheorghe Flutur. As
for the Prime Minister, Calin Tariceanu, it dislocated their
functions the president of medical national Association veterinary
and its assistant. “These people are guilty of a criminal
irresponsibility”, it launched.Carry of entry of the avian flu to Europe, Romania listed, since
October 7, 2005, 53 hearths of the virus and spent 15 million euros
to stop this plague in April.
…
The criminal gesture of the stockbreeders of Codlea led to the
contamination of Bucharest. “Approximately 50.000 birds of farmyard
are high into full Bucharest, deplored the mayor, Adriean Videanu. We
very seriously plan to prohibit the poultry breeding. We are a
European capital where one cannot raise pigs and poultries any
more.” The mayor of the capital is very criticized by the media,
which reproach him its impotence vis-a-vis this plague. Exasperated
by the incapacity of the authorities, the president, Traian Basescu,
requested from the Rumanian department information (SRI) to seek
guilty truths. The secret agents were ridiculed by confusing chickens
and turkeys and by showing Hungary to have introduced the virus.The Romanians, them, retain only one thing: incapacity of the
institutions of the country to communicate and regulate the problem
of the avian flu.http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-3214,36-780037@51-750377,0.html
“Impotent Rumanian authorities vis-a-vis the avian flu”Quote:According to experts, wild birds are spreading the deadly H5N1 virus that’s wiping out poultry worldwide. But are they really to blame? Or is the disease not only a direct result of intensive farming – but actually being spread by the industry? Joanna Blythman reports Wednesday June 7, 2006 The Guardian If you normally make a point of buying free-range poultry and eggs, then you may be wondering if this is any longer a wise decision. The television reportage of bird flu, with its shots of men wearing white suits and masks chasing chickens in poor, rural Asian or African villages, or footage of chickens being slaughtered in third world markets while sinister-looking, positively Hitchcockian wild birds circle overhead, has helped build the perception that H5N1 is a disease of wild birds and domesticated poultry kept outdoors in primitive – and, by implication, dodgy – circumstances. On the home front, the nation is on amber alert.All the major summer agricultural shows have decided to abandon their customary displays of live poultry. The fear is that H5N1 is winging its way to Britain, and that if we don’t get every last chicken, hen and budgie indoors, then it could mutate into a human flu pandemic and any minute we’ll be dead. A stream of statements and strategy documents from august bodies such as the World Health Organisation reinforce the "wild birds and backyard poultry are the problem" plot-line. This must come as music to the ears of the intensive poultry producers, who heartily resent the good press that organic and free-range poultry generally receive. For once it is free-range birds that everyone is worried about, not the caged laying hens and tightly packed broiler birds that generally feature in food exposes. But what if those august bodies have got it wrong? Multiple cracks are beginning to show in the supposed scientific consensus on the origins of avian flu.
A growing number of non-governmental organisations, bird experts and independent vets are pointing the finger at the global intensive poultry industry. A new report from Grain, an international environmental organisation, challenges the official line. "H5N1 is essentially a problem of industrial poultry practices," it says. "Its epicentre is the factory farms of China and south-east Asia. Although wild birds can carry the disease, at least for short distances, [the main infection] route is the highly self-regulated transnational poultry industry, which sends its products and wastes around the world through a multitude of channels." Grain’s alternative theory for the emergence of H5N1 – which got backing in an editorial in the Lancet medical journal last month – starts with the observation that bird flu has coexisted pretty peacefully with wild birds, small-scale poultry farming and live markets for centuries without evolving into a more dangerous form of the disease. An explanation for this is that outdoor poultry flocks tend to be low-density, localised, and offer plenty of genetic diversity in breeding stock.
By contrast, the hi-tech, intensive poultry farm, where as many as 40,000 birds can be kept in one shed and reared entirely indoors without ever seeing the light of day, is just like an overcrowded nursery of wheezy toddlers when the latest winter bug comes knocking – an ideal environment for spreading the disease and for encouraging the rapid mutation of a mild virus into a more pathogenic and highly transmissible strain, such as H5N1.
"What we are saying is that H5N1 is a poultry virus killing wild birds, not the other way around," says Devlin Kuyek, from Grain. The organisation’s view is supported by the charity BirdLife International, which plots the migratory routes of wild birds. "With few exceptions, there is a limited correlation between the pattern and timing of spread among domestic birds and wild bird migrations," it says. It points out that most of the bird flu outbreaks in south-east Asian countries can be linked to the movements of poultry and poultry products. Looking at the outbreaks in Nigeria and Egypt, which occurred almost simultaneously in multiple large-scale poultry operations, it says that there is "strong circumstantial evidence" that it was the transfer of infected material – straw, soil on vehicles, clothes or shoes – from one factory unit to another that spread H5N1 there, not wild birds. … Intense debate has built up over one particular mass outbreak last year among geese at Qinghai lake in northern China.
The widely accepted official explanation is that migratory birds carried the virus westwards from there to Russia and Turkey. But according to BirdLife International’s Dr Richard Thomas, no species migrates from Qinghai west to eastern Europe. "The pattern of outbreaks follows major road and rail routes, not flyways," he says. What Qinghai lake does have, however, is many surrounding intensive poultry farms whose "poultry manure", a euphemism for what is scraped off the floor of factory farms – bird faeces, feathers and soiled litter – is used as feed and fertiliser in fish farms and fields around Qinghai.
According to WHO, bird flu can survive in bird faeces for up to 35 days. Might it be that at Qinghai, H5N1 was passed from intensively reared birds to wild ones via chicken faeces, and not the other way around? … When H5N1 turned up in a remote village in eastern Turkey in January, this was initially blamed on migratory birds. Then when villagers gave their side of the story, it emerged that their diseased birds were intimately connected with a large factory farm nearby.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has now acknowledged that the poultry trade spread H5N1 in Turkey, singling out the common practice of intensive poultry farms sending out huge truckloads of low-value (possibly ailing) birds to poor farmers. Yet when bird flu hit a factory farm in Nigeria in February, the FAO spokesman still insisted: "If it’s not wild birds [that are the cause], it will be difficult to understand."
The Nigerian authorities, on the other hand, blamed the poultry industry. It subsequently emerged that the hatching eggs used by the farm in question were not from registered hatcheries, and may have come from a bird flu-infected country, such as Turkey. Worldwide, intensive poultry production has exploded and this growth seems to be mirrored by an increase in avian flu. … Joanna Blythman’s new book, Bad Food Britain – How A Nation Ruined Its Appetite, is published by Fourth Estate, price £7.99.
From 6 June Promed:
My latest theory on the inexorable spread of avian influenza to Borneo and
Sumatra is that movement of poultry from the Malaysia peninsula had been
suppressed by fear of piracy in the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca.After the Boxing Day Tsunami, the South China Sea was awash, so to speak,
with military vessels bringing aid from foreign nations, which had the
effect of reducing the fear that a smuggler of poultry might be massacred
by pirates as he carried his chickens by small boat across to the islands.Apparently, piracy is once again on the increase in the South China Sea, so
we can expect the current outbreak of H5N1 to dwindle in proportion to the
hazard to small-craft traffic.Links:
—
Hugh Baker
Veterinary Program Officer – Exports
Canadian Food Inspection Agency/Agence canadienne d’inspection des aliments
Toronto Regional Office
1124 Finch Avenue West
Toronto, Ontario M3J 2E2
Government of Canada / Gouvernement du Canada[I have always claimed that, given 3 facts, I can come up with 4
speculative epidemiologic hypotheses to explain them. It is clear that the
epidemiology of H5N1 HAI is both multifactorial and multicausational, and
each region will be different. Hugh’s suggestion may carry some weight.
Only those in the region with special knowledge can tell us whether it has
any validity or not. I would not be surprised if it is correct for the
above piracy-affected areas. Piracy is a major hazard to shipping in the
South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca. – Mod.MHJ]As well as possible connection to H5N1, must also wonder about conservation implications of such projects, especially if occupy significant amounts of natural habitats.
http://www.tibetwindow.cn/herd/supply/item/2006-01/09/_89616.html
“Shannan rare wild animal breeding area development projects”1, project background and resources
Shannan area rare wild animal resources extremely rich, only one
country, more than 700,000 species of animals secondary protection,
including musk deer, black bear, Malu and Bantouyan, Chek Maya,
Hemaji, Zangma chickens have easily domesticated characteristics.Regional head of the county-owned nature reserve in Tibet only Malu,
the local people also have artificial domesticated wild Malu
tradition. Nga eye and the vast majority of natural waters wild
Bantouyan large number of researchers in this area Forestry Bureau
two artificial breeding of rare animals made a lot of attempts, made
significant progress. Second, the content and size of the main
projects(a) wild Malu, musk deer, black bear, brown breeding base.
(b) wild Bantouyan, Chek Maya, Hemaji, Zangma chicken eggs and
breeding bases. Third, the market analysis(1) markets in the region : Because of Sichuan habits, living in
cities of the Tibetan diet has been basically completely close
Sichuan, Tibet in recent years coupled with the rapid development of
tourism, local native products developed enough food, as long
transportation lines, the high cost of transport, purchase of
specialty food prices have remained high, Tibet’s native products of
the food market in the region have great market demand. Thus,
domesticated and breeding Bantouyan, Malu have better market
prospects.(2) outside the market : the Tibetan wild domesticated animal food
with clean natural green effect.4, investment estimates
The total investment is expected to reach 600 million.5, – benefit analysis
Artificial domesticated wild animals in addition to providing
features Game meat, bear bile, musk, velvet and whip, blood products
and other traditional medicinal herbs are precious and have high
economic value; Wild poultry high protein, low fat, the meat is
excellent, the people are like, after finishing the outside market
can not be belittled.6, cooperation
Business enterprises or sole proprietor holding.7, business units : Shannan region of Tibet Forestry Bureau
[1]
Date: Sat 3 Jun 2006
From: Martin WilliamsSeeing the H5N1 situation in Indonesia, I wonder whether “integrated”
fish farming plays an important role in sustaining H5N1 [a concern
conservationists have raised. I received an email regarding a truck
load of chicken manure being dumped into a Vietnamese lake each day
as fish food. At one time, FAO promoted such farming methods].Not that fish catch the flu, but dumping manure and carcasses into
ponds and having them eaten by fish possibly results in ponds that
can be reservoirs for flu virus [and possibility of transfer via farm
fish, in bellies, on skins, or with water if live fish are
transported?].In this regard, it is interesting that Webster et al. have reported
H5N1 virus surviving for longer in fairly warm water than regular
wild bird flu viruses.Here is a webpage I’ve done after a quick trip to Indonesia and a
fish farm where catfish were fed on chicken carcasses etc.:
.I realize that WHO teams in Indonesia are extremely busy, but maybe
they could investigate the realities of this fish pond risk [for
example, if fish farms play a role, just slaughtering poultry is not
adequate for control, especially if a proportion of those poultry are
then used as fish food!].—
Martin Williams[Martin William’s website is worth visiting for his photographs of
floating poultry carcasses in a family fish pond in Indonesia. These
photographs better illustrate the risk than our 3 reports on the same
topic. – Mod.MHJ][Scholtissek & Naylor indicated in 1988: “Global developments in
aquaculture — the so-called ‘Blue Revolution’ — will mean increased
colocation of people, ducks and pigs”. (Fish farming and influenza
pandemics; Nature 331, 215).See also “Chicken dung used to feed fish may help spread bird flu” in
20051228.3697, as well as Mod. MHJ’s commentary in 20060518.1396:
“…depositing poultry faeces into the pond water would put any
wildfowl swimming in those waters at a real risk of becoming
infected…Birds faeces repeatedly trucked in for fish food would act
in the same way as a constant risk to birds flying into and out of
the fish pond areas”.Situations resembling the one described in Indonesia may prevail
in other countries as well. Aquaculture’s potential hazard in HPAI
epidemiology deserves serious consideration and attention, not red
herringing the role of migratory birds in spreading the virus to
longer distances. – Mod.AS]******
[2]
Date: Sun 4 Jun 2006
From: Joe DudleyI raised this “fish as fomites” issue with Dr. Robert Webster at the
Rome conference.Webster said that it was possible that live H5N1 virus could be
present in the intestinal tract of detritus-feeding fish, like carp,
that may eat infected poultry manure or as an environmental
contaminant in the intestinal tract of fish that had been raised in
ponds fertilized with infected poultry manure.Live virus could also be present as an environmental contaminant in
the water used to transport live fish from farm to market.Offal from commercial poultry slaughterhouses is reportedly used as a
source of feed for fish farms in Thailand that raise northern
snakeheads (_Channa striata_).—
Joe Dudley
Chief Scientist, Biosecurity & Bioinformatics
EAI Corporation
SAIC******
[3]
Date: Sun 4 Jun 2006
From: Simon Shane [Edited]The point which your correspondents seem to miss is that Indonesian
subsistence farmers live in their poultry houses or rotate their
families through them for security, they drink crudely filtered pond
water, dress birds in the Kampong, and generally have intimate
contact with poultry, live bird dealers and all they come in contact
with!I am concerned that ProMED is being “used” by the ornithological
fraternity to absolve their feathered constituency of any involvement
in dissemination of H5N1 HPAI. This is understandable, given fairly
widespread and indiscriminate shooting of migratory birds by the
Russians during the 2005 fall migration. There is a lot of blame to
go around, the inherently primitive farming system in Indonesia
(Suharto’s edict against corporate farming placing a 10 000-bird
limit on flocks during the 1980s), lack of veterinary resources,
poverty, ignorance, superstition, etc.The situation in Thailand is marginally better, especially in the
commercial operations (SAHA, Sun Valley, CP), but HPAI is endemic and
non-reported in the hinterland. China has done an excellent job of
saturation vaccination of the intensive and semi-intensive industry
segments and withholding information which is inconvenient.My conclusion is that migratory birds acquire infection and either
die if susceptible or serve as transitory shedders, establishing
rolling infections among diverse species. Once HPAI is introduced
into an area, deficiencies in biosecurity, including primitive
farming practices and live bird sales requiring movement by itinerant
traders, disseminates infection. Humans with sialic acid 2-3 glycan
receptors are unfortunately zapped. Please remember that the gene
pool in some of the villages in Indonesia, Turkey and other areas is
very shallow, or to put it another way, sibling rivalry is grounds
for divorce!—
Simon M. Shane FRCVS, PhD. MBL. dip ACPV
Emeritus Professor
205 Landreth Court
Durham NC 27713
USA[see also:
Avian influenza, poultry vs migratory birds (22) 20060531.1522
Avian influenza, poultry vs migratory birds (21) 20060522.1446
Avian influenza, poultry vs migratory birds (20) 20060518.1396
2005
—-
Avian influenza – Eurasia (111): Turkey, Asia fish feed 20051228.3697]
……………….lm/mhj/msp/arn/lm– I have emailed Prof Shane, several of whose ideas perhaps bizarre, inc re rolling infections:
“I am curious re your conclusion “that migratory birds acquire infection and either die if susceptible or serve as transitory shedders, establishing rolling infections among diverse species.”Evidence being?”
more bleak news re China’s environment
Quote:China’s pollution problems cost the country more than US$200 billion a year, a top official said Monday as he called for better legal protection for grass roots groups so they can help the government clean up the environment.Zhu Guangyao, deputy chief of the State Environmental Protection Agency, estimated that damage to China’s environment is costing the government roughly 10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. China’s GDP for 2005 was US$2.26 trillion.
Despite government efforts, China’s environmental picture is not improving, but worsening, he said, and “allows for no optimism.”
Zhu said environmental nongovernment organizations can play “important roles in promoting or pushing governments” to solve environmental problems.
He acknowledged that some local officials were not implementing the the central government’s guidelines very well.
Zhu said implementing the central government’s guidelines would also be a challenge for local officials who are accustomed to being judged on growth above all else and are fearful of the economic impact of tighter environmental controls. ….
Pollution costs China US$200 billion every year
see also, on People’s Daily online:
Full text: Environmental Protection in China (1996-2005)Had a prompt reply:
Nice to hear from you again. I note that you have gone from a minority voice to one that is now being taken very seriously. Well done.
I’ll pass your note around.
just sent following to contact in WHO:
Especially seeing H5N1 situation in Indonesia, I wonder if “integrated” fish farming plays important role in sustaining H5N1. (Something conservationists have raised, after an email I received re truck load of chicken manure dumped into Vietnamese lake each day, as fish food. FAO seems uninterested in looking into this; they promoted such farming methods, so I’m not sure if that’s reason.)
Not as fish catch the flu; but as dumping manure and carcasses into ponds, having them eaten by fish, maybe get ponds that can be like reservoirs for flu. (And possibility of transfer via farm fish? – in bellies, on skins; with water if fish are transported?)
In this regard, perhaps interesting that Webster et al have reported H5N1 surviving for longer in fairly warm water than regular, wild bird flus.
Here’s a webpage I’ve done after quick trip to Indonesia; on a fish farm, where catfish fed on chicken carcasses etc.
https://www.drmartinwilliams.com/conservation/catfish-farm.html
I realise WHO teams in Indonesia extremely busy, but maybe they could do a v little investigating.
(For if fish farms play a role, just slaughtering poultry not adequate for control – especially if proportion of those poultry then used as fish food!)Here are comments I’ve been sent by ornithologist who attended recent conference on wild birds and flu in Rome:
Quote:Robert Webster is “Mr Flu” and really knows his stuff, constantly being referred to by other virologists, 30 odd years of work. He knows what he’s on about with regard to viruses. His team have been working on “ducks” for a long time but he’s no birder, that’s for sure. He and his team are genuinly concerned that this virus is breaking all the rules and they are convinced that wild birds “have a role” in this. There is growing evidence that this virus exists in wild birds, all those duck deaths in western europe (curious though that Sweden has so many and Finland none, the Swedes perplexed by this) and now a positive wild Magpie close to a poultry positive in Denmark. There should have been more ornithologists there… RSPB and BirdLife asking the right questions and making the right statements. Anyway, it’s quite clear to all concerned that this is a poultry problem and not a wildbird issue. This will come through loud and clear in the final utterences from the conference. You’ll see that there are still “issues” regarding the role of wildbirds. The conference statement will also make it loud and clear that shooting wildbirds, draining wetlands, cutting trees etc is NOT the way to go. The US will be sampling >80,000 wildbirds in the coming months. Europe has already sampled 40 odd thousand and will continue to do this. Thailand and South Korea have of course shown the world it can be controlled in poultry. Talked to the Thai rep at the meeting, they well aware and on top of the poultry trade. Everyone concerned about what’s happening in Indonesia and the governments lack of direction. I guess the real concern is that this virus is VERY ACTIVE and the more chance it gets to expand into and within populations the more possibilities there are of a major outbreak and the chance of recombination within humans. FRom “our” point of view it’s finally moving in the right direction and FAO are almost admitting they got it wrong !!I replied:
I know Webster knows much re viruses, but ignoring natural selection seems completely wrong-headed. His notion re 50% of world population perhaps dying just wacky.
Yes, I know re Europe; but again, it’s duck (and other bird) deaths. Why so much ignoring of situation in e Asia – Japan, Korea, Hong Kong among places with surveillance, no H5N1 in migratory wild waterbirds this past winter. (An egret in HK maybe resident; at time some landbirds affected, I believe linked to markets – were poultry cases too.) Also wrong-headed to ignore this.
[With Europe an anomaly, maybe some linkage to some waterbirds often living close to humans; I wonder too if some linkage to fish farming, say Romania, which has many outbreaks in poultry.]
Being stubborn is one thing, but for Webster to ignore so much, to not enter into dialogue with birding community, seems very lacking (no ornithologist cited on paper re Poyang ducks etc). I’ve emailed him and others; had replies from Guan Yi, spoke to Malik Peiris over the phone, Webster just some brief missive citing his being a bigwig.
Too bad re not enough ornithologists at conference; too bad too that some w funding from FAO prepared to toe and tout the line (yellow-billed magpie tester, stand up please!).
Good, though, that things changing re blame the birds. (“dead birds don’t fly” said Lubroth!; but same tune from Domenech).
But FAO refusal to (that we know of) investigate potential role of integrated fish farming verges on criminal. Might help explain the virus persisting and being so widespread in Indonesia – you’ve perhaps seen my shots of catfish feasting on chicken carcasses. Maybe helps explain persistence in eastern Europe, and elsewhere (Vietnam, say, where at one point thought to have been eradicated, but virus resurfaced. Webster blames ducks – of course! And domestic ducks do play some role, shown in Thailand; but even in this case, seemed virus tending to die out. It has better survival in warm water than regular bird flus, maybe an adaptation to ponds in onr near the tropics.)
quick reply just in:
Quote:Fish farming never got a mention !!! Webster stated that fish cannot get HPAI, they have their own set of viruses which are quite different.to which I’ve sent:
Webster’s comment is ridiculous. Argument re fish farms is not re fish catching flu, but about dumping lots of H5N1 into fish farms. Webster has found this survives better in warm water, yet apparently hasn’t thought why this might be – again, mark of a man to whom natural selection is of no consequence. (Nor other people’s views; unless they happen to be supporting his research?)
For 2003/04 in Asia, I wrote re migratory bird routes/timings not fitting H5N1 spread. V tiresome to have had to repeat these arguments, while still belief by too many in tooth fairy bird.
Hi Coleman:
Thanks for this.
Not too insightful, I thought; would be good to see Dr W quizzed regarding natural selection, and (assuming he made claim before this article went to press) his notion half the world population could die.
Martin
Just as the conference in Rome is underway, another item saying pattern of spread doesn’t fit migratory bird movements, and quoting Juan Lubroth of FAO (also Birdlife’s Richard Thomas).
Includes Lubroth saying:
Quote:“I’ve been stumped by this virus for the last two years,” Lubroth said. “Certain things we thought would happen didn’t, and then things we didn’t think would happen did.”It’s possible, Lubroth said, that wild birds are being infected by poultry.
– here, shows the massive stupidity in ignoring situation in east Asia. Stupid, and was it also (as Nial has suggested) driven by some racial bias? We’ve seen, say, notions expressed that Asian countries aren’t good at detecting virus, never mind sampling experience in Hong Kong, for instance.
Ah well, perhaps truth will indeed out.
Just gotta hope that the reports re Russian brigades scaring and shooting birds are wildly exaggerated or untrue.Bird-Flu Trail Leads Medical Detectives Back to Poultry Farms
Article by Wendy Orent, in LA Times, includes:
Quote:… the factors that set off a pandemic remain unknown. No one has ever tracked the evolution of a new pandemic. All we have seen — in 1918, 1957 and 1968 — is the aftermath of that evolution. Still, we are told that all it would take for H5N1 to become a pandemic would be for the virus to mutate so it could spread in a sustained way from person to person. This is known as "mutation to transmissibility." … The H5N1 virus faces several barriers in jumping to and transmitting among humans. The most important is its ability to replicate in and adapt to human tissues, specifically the upper respiratory tract (not in deep lung tissue, where it now seems to grow). In the windpipe, the virus would be more likely to spread in a cough or sneeze, infecting other humans. …[Earl] Brown recognizes what seems to elude most people who worry about pandemic outbreaks: What's necessary to produce a human-adapted virus is humans — a series of person-to-person infections. Without that chain of transmission, any human adaptation of H5N1 is difficult to imagine. … interact with other viral genes in a human host to improve its ability to infect the host. This is an adaptive process — and it is true whether the new virus arises directly through mutation or even through recombination with a common flu strain. H5N1 is beautifully, tragically adapted to chickens and has proved a monstrous predator. It evolved this way by preying on chickens packed into huge commercial chicken farms in Asia. The bird flu virus is still at the starting gate when it comes to humans. But should any strain of H5N1 manage to survive many sequential transmissions, Darwin's charioteer may drive off. The best transmitters will be favored by selection, as evolutionary biologist Paul W. Ewald of the University of Louisville contends. The process will continue, human by human, until a fully human-adapted, explosive strain emerges. …
At the beginning, viral adaptation to a host is slow. A disease just beginning to transmit is controllable. Surveillance, flexibility, willingness to impose or undergo quarantines, along with international cooperation, will be necessary to stop pandemic flu — or any other disease moving from animals to humans — before Darwin's driver gets ahead of us and nothing can be done.
What Darwin has to say about bird flu Can the disease mutate into a widespread threat to humans? Possibly, but it won't happen overnight.
I emailed Wendy to check whether this rather ominous last sentence (and "explosive strain") meant some change in her thinking re not being possible right now to evolve a virulent flu.
Her reply:
Quote:No, I haven't changed my position. A pandemic (without WWI etc. conditions) would NOT be a lethal pandemic – just an ordinary one, like 57 or 68. And quarantine would work in the early stages, as the virus adapts. An explosive strain merely means a highly transmissible strain, not a lethal strain. I am afraid many people may understand this the way you did. It's actually the same argument I've been making for years – just another piece of it. It would be awful if people think I've changed my position, under pressure maybe. Not at all. I haven't changed a bit – I just wanted to show why the phrase "mutate to transmissibility" is essentially meaningless, and that the evolution of any pandemic would have to come through natural selection. That's how it happened in the past; that's how it could happen in the future.also from Japanese researcher: "utilisation of discarded eggs" suggests methods in line with the report of the first artificial breeding in Lhasa.
"Ramsar Information Sheet" 3. Name of wetland: Qinghai Bird Island National Nature Reserve (Niao Dao) 25. Current scientific and research facilities: Artificial incubation of Bar-headed Goose (Anser indicus) and study on the utilisation of discarded eggs; bird banding etc., the establishment of laboratories for bird raising.
Migratory birds die of flu in Qinghai, Tibet
SOME dead wild birds found in Qinghai Province and Tibet Autonomous Region have tested positive of the H5N1 bird flu, the Ministry of Agriculture said today. A total of 399 deceased migratory birds were found in Tibet’s Nakchu area and Qinghai’s Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. The two areas are on the same bird migration route as Qinghai’s Yushu County, where the ministry confirmed earlier this month that more than 100 wild birds died of the deadly virus. noted by Japanese researcher re the Tibet site: This is one of best documented regions where BHG are artificially bred (cf. aiwatch #2098)
"Tibetan Nagqu artificial domesticated wild Bantouyan success" Following the Shannan area Bantouyan artificial domesticated wild success, recently, also transmits news Xainza County, Nagqu Prefecture. Manual procedures for the county rare fowl bred for the 500 wild Bantouyan growing trend well, the listing requirements are met. So far, Shen Norte County in the rational use, protection of wild birds in resources to vigorously develop aquaculture, and promote the strategic restructuring of the livestock has made great strides, providing a vast space.
