abcenviron

Thanks for the information.

Post edited by: Coleman, at: 2007/01/07 20:34

Article in today’s Independent on same topic

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1904957.ece

Climate change ‘will cause refugee crisis’

By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor
Published: 20 October 2006

Mass movements of people across the world are likely to be one of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the coming century, a study suggests.

The report, from the aid agency Tearfund, raises the spectre of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees and says the main reason will be the effects of climate – from droughts and water shortages, from flooding and storm surges and from sea-level rise.

The study, “Feeling the Heat”, says there are already an estimated 25 million environmental refugees, and this figure is likely to soar as rain patterns continue to change, floods and storms become more frequent and rising tides start to inundate low-lying countries such as Bangladesh or some of the Pacific islands.

Tearfund says that without urgent action, world governments will lose the fight to tackle the world water crisis and the growing threat of climate-change refugees in catastrophic numbers.

The report calls for governments at the UN Climate Change conference, beginning in Nairobi in a fortnight, to move towards a global framework for cutting climate-changing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that goes beyond the existing climate treaty, the Kyoto protocol, and to commit billions more to help poor countries adapt to the coming changes.

“There will be millions more thirsty, hungry and ill poor people living in high-risk areas of the world by the end of the century,” the report says. “It makes sense politically, economically and morally, for governments to act with urgency now.”

Andy Atkins, advocacy director of Tearfund, said one of the most devastating impacts of climate change was on water supply. “In some parts of the world, floods, storms and poor rainfall are beginning to have catastrophic effects, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people,” he said.

This process will be steadily exacerbated, the report says, by the differing yet equally serious changes predicted to be part of a warming world. While some parts of the globe may experience much less rainfall and thus drought, others regions will have much more intense rain likely to bring about flooding. Sea-level rise , which a recent report suggested could be up to 50cm by 2050, would at that rate breach 100,000 kms (62,000 miles) of coastline around the world.

The report says: “As floods, drought and storms increase climate change will have a potentially catastrophic impact on water supply, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Poor people – like the 80 per cent of Malawi’s population who farm small plots – are reliant on rain for their harvests, and are least able to adapt to climate change. By exacerbating existing water stresses, climate change impacts many other areas of human development such as health and even industry.”

It goes on: “Already, there are an estimated 25 million environmental refugees – more than half the number of political refugees. Experts such as the ecologist Norman Myers suggest this figure could soar to 200 million in less than 50 years. Unseen and uncounted, millions are already on the move in search of greater water security. In some countries, the exodus began years ago.”

In the report’s foreword, Sir John Houghton, former chairman of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says politicians’ strong words on climate change must now be matched by sufficient investment and strong action to cut global emissions, and help for the poorest nations adapt to climate change on their doorstep. A key to this will be helping poorer nations manage existing water supplies more efficiently.

“If your house is on fire, do you urgently try to save it, or throw your hands up in despair and walk away?” Sir John saysd. “Well, the house is on fire and it requires much more determined efforts to bring it under control and put it out. The UN climate change conference in Nairobi is an opportunity for failings to be addressed. Time is running out on us and world governments need to act much more responsibly, effectively and quickly.”

The devastating impact

The report cites examples of where water problems are already causing a mass exodus or movement of people. They include:

* Poor crop yields are forcing more and more Mexicans to risk death by illegally fleeing to the US.

* One in five Brazilians born in the arid north-east of the country are moving to avoid drought.

* The spread of the Gobi desert, at a rate of 4,000 square miles a year, is forcing the populations of three provinces in China to abandon their homes.

* In Nigeria, 1,350 sq miles of land is turning to desert each year. Farmers and herdsmen are being forced to move to the cities.

* The population of Tuvalu, a group of eight Pacific islands north-east of Australia, is already being evacuated; nearly 3,000 Tuvalans have left so far.

Mass movements of people across the world are likely to be one of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the coming century, a study suggests.

The report, from the aid agency Tearfund, raises the spectre of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees and says the main reason will be the effects of climate – from droughts and water shortages, from flooding and storm surges and from sea-level rise.

The study, “Feeling the Heat”, says there are already an estimated 25 million environmental refugees, and this figure is likely to soar as rain patterns continue to change, floods and storms become more frequent and rising tides start to inundate low-lying countries such as Bangladesh or some of the Pacific islands.

Tearfund says that without urgent action, world governments will lose the fight to tackle the world water crisis and the growing threat of climate-change refugees in catastrophic numbers.

The report calls for governments at the UN Climate Change conference, beginning in Nairobi in a fortnight, to move towards a global framework for cutting climate-changing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that goes beyond the existing climate treaty, the Kyoto protocol, and to commit billions more to help poor countries adapt to the coming changes.

“There will be millions more thirsty, hungry and ill poor people living in high-risk areas of the world by the end of the century,” the report says. “It makes sense politically, economically and morally, for governments to act with urgency now.”

Andy Atkins, advocacy director of Tearfund, said one of the most devastating impacts of climate change was on water supply. “In some parts of the world, floods, storms and poor rainfall are beginning to have catastrophic effects, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people,” he said.

This process will be steadily exacerbated, the report says, by the differing yet equally serious changes predicted to be part of a warming world. While some parts of the globe may experience much less rainfall and thus drought, others regions will have much more intense rain likely to bring about flooding. Sea-level rise , which a recent report suggested could be up to 50cm by 2050, would at that rate breach 100,000 kms (62,000 miles) of coastline around the world.

The report says: “As floods, drought and storms increase climate change will have a potentially catastrophic impact on water supply, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Poor people – like the 80 per cent of Malawi’s population who farm small plots – are reliant on rain for their harvests, and are least able to adapt to climate change. By exacerbating existing water stresses, climate change impacts many other areas of human development such as health and even industry.”
It goes on: “Already, there are an estimated 25 million environmental refugees – more than half the number of political refugees. Experts such as the ecologist Norman Myers suggest this figure could soar to 200 million in less than 50 years. Unseen and uncounted, millions are already on the move in search of greater water security. In some countries, the exodus began years ago.”

In the report’s foreword, Sir John Houghton, former chairman of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says politicians’ strong words on climate change must now be matched by sufficient investment and strong action to cut global emissions, and help for the poorest nations adapt to climate change on their doorstep. A key to this will be helping poorer nations manage existing water supplies more efficiently.

“If your house is on fire, do you urgently try to save it, or throw your hands up in despair and walk away?” Sir John saysd. “Well, the house is on fire and it requires much more determined efforts to bring it under control and put it out. The UN climate change conference in Nairobi is an opportunity for failings to be addressed. Time is running out on us and world governments need to act much more responsibly, effectively and quickly.”

The devastating impact

The report cites examples of where water problems are already causing a mass exodus or movement of people. They include:

* Poor crop yields are forcing more and more Mexicans to risk death by illegally fleeing to the US.

* One in five Brazilians born in the arid north-east of the country are moving to avoid drought.

* The spread of the Gobi desert, at a rate of 4,000 square miles a year, is forcing the populations of three provinces in China to abandon their homes.

* In Nigeria, 1,350 sq miles of land is turning to desert each year. Farmers and herdsmen are being forced to move to the cities.

* The population of Tuvalu, a group of eight Pacific islands north-east of Australia, is already being evacuated; nearly 3,000 Tuvalans have left so far.

**************************

Jo

Post edited by: jodd, at: 2006/10/20 16:37

Martin wrote:

Maybe a wrong redirecting link?? This one works. [not any longer! – Martin]

Thanks, Coleman – link to Jakarta Post item was working when I posted message, but not now. Martin

Hi Martin,

in relation to the “wild bird thesis” Monthy Pythons sketch does not match perfectly. In context of the H5N1 outbreaks (especially here in Germany..) it would be better to speak about “Most dangerous ninja house sparrows” (or something like this, maybe “kamikaze-ducks” would be another good choice..) instead of “Most dangerous man of the world”.

If we take a look at the last outbreaks in Germany (the fist one on Ruegen is without any plausible explanation), there must be something like invisible sparrows – which breaks in the enclosures of i.e. (related to the “Rotterdam Zoo” / Netherland..) northern hawk owls (Surnia ulula), by the way day active, bre carnivores – sets the virus free and disappears without a trace. Even the outbreaks in Dresden were limited to the black swans, no other cases in the area around ’em , no clustering of outbreaks which would to expect if wild birds were vectors of H5N1.

A few words abot the $2 trillion USD which would an pandemic costs: The pandemic is – at this time – an highly hypothetical thing. If the World Bank wishes to calculate the costs of hypothesises, they had to calculate the costs for the meteorite hit of 1950da (1.1 Km diameter, appears in march 2880 with the proof of 0.33 percent) too. No virologist neither knows in which form (high / low pathogenic) nor when the pandemic mutation of the virus will happen.

The last achievements of our brave new world (Huxley) are “War on terrorism” and “War on H5N1”. Maybe it would an good idea (for ecological reasons) to unite them within one “War on [H5N1] terror” campaign. In february 2006 when the H5N1 media hype begun here in Germany i published these website:

http://www.gegenpropaganda.org/html/h5n1_satire_cia.htm

An other project of mine was the “Petition against preventative slaughtering (“culling”) of animals” which were signed by more than 3,700 people.

http://www.gegenpropaganda.org/html/h5n1_uebersetzungen.php

And my new website – particularly related to H5N1 too – is now online too:

http://www.federtiere.net/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1

These links just to give a little information about myself and my own position to the H5N1 media hype. Of course there is an risc of pandemic mutation. But all steps of prevention have to concider carefully. The killing of 200 million healthy birds in example may not be, in any instance, an acceptable option.

Sincerely,

Werner Hupperich

PS: Sorry about some spelling mistakes, but my english is possibly not in best condition..

Yesterday night i found this …
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/special_avian.html#
Avian flu: Don’t place all the blame on wild birds
22 May 2006

Avian flu: Don’t place all the blame on wild birds
Human activities not birds more likely to spread the virus

Avian influenza (bird flu) is a complex issue in which wild birds have most often been identified as the culprits. It is indeed likely that they can introduce the disease to unaffected areas from countries in which the disease has already been identified – but the disease is spread through the human activities of poultry production, improper hygiene and uncontrolled commercialisation.

It is unreasonable to place the blame on wild birds as the source of the H5N1 strain of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in the absence of rigorous research into their role in the ecology and dynamics of the virus. FAO has been calling for such research since early 2004, but insufficient resources have been allocated to be able to study the question properly.

The simple fact is that more research is needed to understand wild bird migration and the vulnerability of different species in order to perform proper risk assessments, and recommend risk mitigation measures where required.

To this end, FAO and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) are organising an international scientific conference on avian influenza and wild birds from 30-31 May in Rome to try to understand better the role of wild birds in the transmission of avian flu. Also up for discussion will be the risk of wild birds becoming a permanent reservoir of the virus and identification of the main knowledge gaps for research.

In the meantime, notes Juan Lubroth, Head of FAO’s Infectious Disease Group, it is very easy to point the finger at migratory birds, but this distracts from the effort it and OIE are making to improving hygiene, good husbandry and production practices and monitoring of the poultry sector which require strong partnerships between the regulatory government sector and private industry and its farmers.

As an international agency which has invested considerable resources in numerous aspects of biodiversity preservation and conservation, FAO would be the last to pinpoint wildlife as the sole source of virus dissemination.

FAO and OIE, along with working partners such as the Wildlife Conservation Society and Wetlands International, have repeatedly stressed that prevention (through better hygiene in the production chain), control and HPAI eradication efforts should be targeted at all poultry production sectors – be it in the commercial or rural household sectors – in order to contain the disease and prevent it from spreading further.

Surveillance for avian influenza viruses and the presence of the HPAI H5N1 virus in wildlife can be given priority only once adequate surveillance of the poultry sector is in place, since poultry are more likely to transmit infection to humans and other susceptible animals. To devote resources to monitoring wild birds rather than take stock of production practices and improving such practices would not be justified.

At the same time, FAO is not particularly in favour of the banning of regularised and sanctioned hunting of wildlife for sport, tradition or livelihood for the simple reason that informal and illegal would most likely continue. It argues that hunters and hunting clubs should join the avian flu surveillance effort by becoming sources of information and even providers of valuable field samples for the study of viruses that these species could carry.

In Herald Tribune it is published with free access.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/10/news/flu.php

At May 12th a german Agro-Food Corp. reports about it.

http://www.huehner-info.de/huefo/thread.php?threadid=8691

I’m Redcap.

Post edited by: Coleman, at: 2006/05/23 22:06

Post edited by: Coleman, at: 2006/05/23 22:22

Link to news item – Sun Nov 27, 2005

Experts say flu fears over wild birds over-stated

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=globalNews&storyID=2005-11-27T082048Z_01_FOR720361_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-TAIWAN-WILDBIRDS.xml&archived=False

Jo

Post edited by: jodd, at: 2005/11/27 21:50

Post edited by: jodd, at: 2005/11/27 21:51